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Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 08-31-2021, 10:46 AM
Replies: 28
Views: 5,227
Posted By f2tornado
Agree on all points, especially this one. It made...

Agree on all points, especially this one. It made for easier than average wagering for that track. Nailed that trifecta using the speed but wish I wasn't so complacent with just $2 wager.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 08-03-2021, 02:19 PM
Replies: 28
Views: 5,227
Posted By f2tornado
The chalk usually is a good bet against in that...

The chalk usually is a good bet against in that feature. I thought EQ looked good overall in the Dandy. The outside running throughout seemingly dulled his stretch run but looked like plenty left in...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 07-09-2021, 06:31 PM
Replies: 247
Views: 29,812
Posted By f2tornado
Yep. Meanwhile on track handle is about one-third...

Yep. Meanwhile on track handle is about one-third of what it was in the mid 1990s while total handle is nearly on par. If we exclude 2020 for COVID then on track handle is down 22% since 2014. It's...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 06-02-2021, 01:38 PM
Replies: 56
Views: 7,315
Posted By f2tornado
Exactly. I still have mild success betting...

Exactly. I still have mild success betting against high DI horses stretching out. the figures/index has some utility. It's not and was never intended to be the be all end all.

As far as the...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 05-30-2021, 11:28 AM
Replies: 296
Views: 23,117
Posted By f2tornado
Looks like chalk over second chalk hits about 9%...

Looks like chalk over second chalk hits about 9% of the time in the combined results. That's still a decent hit hit to leave out of the wager. I wonder what the results would be if you tossed the...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-15-2021, 12:26 PM
Replies: 24
Views: 2,196
Posted By f2tornado
I'm asking him to pull a Shackelford which is a...

I'm asking him to pull a Shackelford which is a reasonable proposition here. I'll also use Crowded Trade on top. Feels like any horse could hit the gimmicks so I'll keep those plays simple and hope I...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-12-2021, 12:28 PM
Replies: 67
Views: 11,210
Posted By f2tornado
Don't know about the field quality but concur on...

Don't know about the field quality but concur on other notes. I do wonder if Baffert ponies will be overlays messing up some of that non-chalk value given the quantity of Baffert indigestion lately....
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-11-2021, 09:35 PM
Replies: 36
Views: 6,216
Posted By f2tornado
The race and card are not that great this year...

The race and card are not that great this year anyway. TVG and TwinSpires offering refundable win bets on the cards so I’ll throw some money against the Baffert chalk. Maybe also dial up a tri bet...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-07-2021, 11:11 AM
Replies: 67
Views: 11,210
Posted By f2tornado
I'm not very excited for the race but think...

I'm not very excited for the race but think Medina is the weakest of all Baffert Derby winners therefore potentially vulnerable here. The trick is picking a potential upset and nothing screams a bet....
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-04-2021, 06:21 PM
Replies: 67
Views: 11,210
Posted By f2tornado
It used to be the Preakness was more kind to...

It used to be the Preakness was more kind to speed than the Derby. Not so sure about that now but it's probably not the worse spot for Caddo.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 05-04-2021, 05:04 PM
Replies: 7
Views: 1,253
Posted By f2tornado
No knock on Bob here. Baffert won and kudos to...

No knock on Bob here. Baffert won and kudos to him. He's the Tom Brady of racing. That said, Bob did not seem as confident on this one even telling one interviewer, "...you probably won't need to...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-03-2021, 09:37 PM
Replies: 15
Views: 2,003
Posted By f2tornado
Pull a Shackelford. Hopefully he wins and doesn't...

Pull a Shackelford. Hopefully he wins and doesn't catch a cold so the Belmont is a better wagering event.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-03-2021, 09:26 PM
Replies: 51
Views: 8,819
Posted By f2tornado
One could have boxed the five Brisnet Race...

One could have boxed the five Brisnet Race Summary E2 100+ horses this year and collected a fat trifecta. Throw in the chalk and catch the super. None of the tri hitters fit the LP angle that was...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-03-2021, 06:47 PM
Replies: 15
Views: 2,003
Posted By f2tornado
EQ should wait for Belmont. Tapits do well there...

EQ should wait for Belmont. Tapits do well there for some reason and the race suites his running style.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 05-03-2021, 01:27 PM
Replies: 7
Views: 1,253
Posted By f2tornado
Johnny V, who has as many Derby wins as Baffert...

Johnny V, who has as many Derby wins as Baffert since he was on Animal Kingdom, with an assist from a golden post draw won that race for Baffert. He likely doesn't win that race from, say, the 15...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-02-2021, 11:10 PM
Replies: 105
Views: 17,719
Posted By f2tornado
This is highly accurate and well supported by the...

This is highly accurate and well supported by the Equibase sheet (https://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/CD050121USA12.pdf).

Baffert won but it was more like JV won for Baffert with an assist...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-02-2021, 07:19 PM
Replies: 105
Views: 17,719
Posted By f2tornado
Johnny V matches Baffert in Derby wins since...

Johnny V matches Baffert in Derby wins since Animal Kingdom.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-02-2021, 04:34 PM
Replies: 18
Views: 2,139
Posted By f2tornado
I watched the replay and I’d be surprised if EQ...

I watched the replay and I’d be surprised if EQ doesn’t get the best sheets figure running wide the entire way. Getting “Rocked” from the gate didn’t help. Start him more inside and perhaps have a...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-02-2021, 11:28 AM
Replies: 18
Views: 2,139
Posted By f2tornado
There were even decent early fractions to run at....

There were even decent early fractions to run at. Waving the white flag on some of the angles from the 90s and 00s. Like I mentioned in the Baffert thread, trifecta box the five Brisnet 100+ E2...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-02-2021, 11:20 AM
Replies: 105
Views: 17,719
Posted By f2tornado
Yep. Perhaps the late speed angle is bunk these...

Yep. Perhaps the late speed angle is bunk these days. One could have simply boxed the Brisnet E2 100+ Race Summary = $30 and collected a $848 trifecta. Next year's handicapping will take two minutes....
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-01-2021, 08:21 PM
Replies: 42
Views: 4,503
Posted By f2tornado
Buckpasser-x Exacta

Buckpasser-x Exacta
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-01-2021, 01:11 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 1,079
Posted By f2tornado
Keeping it simple but will have more than the...

Keeping it simple but will have more than the base wager on it. Probably add a few combos if I can hit something on the undercard. Not so hot through the first four races.
...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-01-2021, 10:37 AM
Replies: 22
Views: 4,486
Posted By f2tornado
Louisiana Derby figures come in high depending on...

Louisiana Derby figures come in high depending on what source you prefer. Small sample size, but perhaps Travel Column and Clariere underwhelming in the Oaks expose that card a bit (On a side note, I...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-30-2021, 08:39 PM
Replies: 41
Views: 4,899
Posted By f2tornado
I need to look over results again for Oaks card...

I need to look over results again for Oaks card but initial impression was the track being kind to closers. Liking the :1::14::17: a little more at this point and perhaps increased potential for...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-30-2021, 11:14 AM
Replies: 22
Views: 4,486
Posted By f2tornado
Was fun watching that video. Excellent share....

Was fun watching that video. Excellent share. Looks like he's in the EQ camp. Also in the strong Louisiana Derby camp.
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