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Posts Made By:
ARAZI91
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
01-17-2024, 05:29 PM
Replies:
43
Anyone know how the 'Percentage Projections' work?
Views:
35,979
Posted By
ARAZI91
Drones
Most of the big in-running punters in the UK & IRE use "drones" now, basically controlling them near the racecourse. Years ago it was positional spotters at various points of the track and the use of...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
01-17-2024, 04:55 PM
Replies:
43
Anyone know how the 'Percentage Projections' work?
Views:
35,979
Posted By
ARAZI91
In-Play Percentages
It definitely does not originate from Betfair directly - as a 100% exchange player in the UK, in running betting is shown in the form of decimal odds on every race in the UK, so you could just...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
12-24-2023, 03:56 PM
Replies:
118
MS Access as Handicapping Database
Views:
21,636
Posted By
ARAZI91
Weighting
There many weighting type systems but because racing has a myriad of conditions (surface, distance, ability, different jockey /trainer pools etc) have you ever tried Entropy type weighting or...
Forum:
Handicapping Library
12-24-2023, 01:30 AM
Replies:
27
James Quinn
Views:
7,036
Posted By
ARAZI91
Also by James Willoughby
As "shippers" are a big concept in your jurisdiction , this may be of interest.
Here James uses the famous Google "PageRank" algorithm to measure the quality of a track
Forum:
Handicapping Library
12-24-2023, 01:10 AM
Replies:
27
James Quinn
Views:
7,036
Posted By
ARAZI91
James Willoughby's Class Ratings for 2yo's using iteration.
Obviously processes have got more sophisticated now but here's a method that employs 4 different concepts designed by UK technical horse racing analyst James Willoughby for analysing 2yo's.
1) The...
Forum:
Handicapping Library
12-23-2023, 09:05 PM
Replies:
27
James Quinn
Views:
7,036
Posted By
ARAZI91
Nick Mordin's adapted Quinn's "Class of The Field" type ratings for UK racing
Going through this old thread and having read and own both Quinn's "Class Of The Field"(Quinn was really the expert on Class in the US) and UK Handicapping author Nick Mordin's first book "Betting...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
10-18-2023, 08:55 AM
Replies:
6
Jockey Comparison Tool
Views:
982
Posted By
ARAZI91
And then there's the very simple WAx metric (Wins...
And then there's the very simple WAx metric (Wins Above Expectation) - you can also do WPAx (which is WinsPlaces Above Expectation) though you need Betfairs place price data - this is strictly a...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
10-18-2023, 07:25 AM
Replies:
6
Jockey Comparison Tool
Views:
982
Posted By
ARAZI91
One thing i have learned about jockeys (and it's...
One thing i have learned about jockeys (and it's common sense really) is that the higher proportion of Last Race Placed horses they get on the more their strike rate should improve - considering here...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
10-18-2023, 06:23 AM
Replies:
6
Jockey Comparison Tool
Views:
982
Posted By
ARAZI91
JOCKEY HEAD TO HEADS
One way i developed here in the UK for analysing jockeys was actually comparing "Jockey's Head to Head" statistics - data only concerns "common races" where each jockey has a ride in the race so it's...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
10-03-2023, 06:52 AM
Replies:
43
The Face Value of Ratings
Views:
4,284
Posted By
ARAZI91
Ratings & Conversion
The problem here is that horse race ratings and i'm talking of ratings such as those scaled 0-140 or 0-135 like these or Timeform's do not follow the "Normal Distribution" - Ratings such as these...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
09-01-2023, 10:03 AM
Replies:
31
Programming intuition, creativity and speculation
Views:
5,557
Posted By
ARAZI91
Benter
I know this is an old resurrected thread but have you a source for Benter's comments on the distance factor?
Reason i'm asking is that in 1996 Benter himself published quite a rare academic paper...
Forum:
Handicapper's Corner
06-09-2022, 03:33 AM
Replies:
14
Ratings to Odds (using ELO)
Views:
3,381
Posted By
ARAZI91
And if using Impact Values make sure it accounts...
And if using Impact Values make sure it accounts for FS( ie: in Win Impact Values = Actual Wins/Cumulative addition of 1/FS which is just xWins by Random Chance)
Forum:
Handicapper's Corner
06-09-2022, 03:23 AM
Replies:
14
Ratings to Odds (using ELO)
Views:
3,381
Posted By
ARAZI91
You can also use those H2H Counts by adding in a...
You can also use those H2H Counts by adding in a losses column and creating an "odds ratio" using a horses Cumulative H2H Win/Loss Ratio over a dataset whilst adding a form of competitiveness or...
Forum:
Handicapper's Corner
06-09-2022, 02:00 AM
Replies:
14
Ratings to Odds (using ELO)
Views:
3,381
Posted By
ARAZI91
One slight downfall of both these metrics are...
One slight downfall of both these metrics are that winners receive the same value no matter the FS - a winner beating 4 rivals receives 100% , the same as a winner beating 12 rivals - to rectify this...
Forum:
Handicapper's Corner
06-09-2022, 01:30 AM
Replies:
14
Ratings to Odds (using ELO)
Views:
3,381
Posted By
ARAZI91
Converting actual FinPos to a FinPos metric may...
Converting actual FinPos to a FinPos metric may help here- here's a couple of relatively simple ones although there are more sophisticated ones but they usually all correlate to some degree when run...
Forum:
Handicapping Library
12-03-2021, 12:41 AM
Replies:
27
James Quinn
Views:
7,036
Posted By
ARAZI91
Thanks RW
Thanks Ranch West - looks a newer site, similar articles, much obliged sire.
Forum:
Handicapping Library
12-03-2021, 12:40 AM
Replies:
27
James Quinn
Views:
7,036
Posted By
ARAZI91
Thanks SF
Thanks Speed Figure - much appreciated, had forgot about that site.
Forum:
Handicapping Library
12-01-2021, 08:28 PM
Replies:
27
James Quinn
Views:
7,036
Posted By
ARAZI91
Joe Takach articles
A good few year's back on this forum there were links usually on the homepage to a series of articles Joe Tackach done - are they still hidden somewhere on this site. Collecting articles on...
Forum:
Handicapping Library
12-01-2021, 08:18 PM
Replies:
27
James Quinn
Views:
7,036
Posted By
ARAZI91
Mordin
Winning Without Thinking - was his magnus opus imo - a summation,i.e. his life's work, of everything he struggled to convey and theorise in his previous books. More in the realm of the possibilities...
Forum:
Handicapping Library
11-28-2021, 09:54 PM
Replies:
27
James Quinn
Views:
7,036
Posted By
ARAZI91
Quinn
Also enjoyed The New Expert Handicappers, particularly the final section where Quinn, Brohamer & Lee Rousso enter "Winning Time" in the winter of 1988 at Santa Anita. Exhilarating stuff almost on a...
Forum:
Handicapping Library
11-28-2021, 09:38 PM
Replies:
27
James Quinn
Views:
7,036
Posted By
ARAZI91
Class Of The Field
Brings back memories Tom of a little London bookstore back in the late 80's/early 90's where you could obtain US handicapping books by import through mail order. Have most of Quinn's books but think...
Forum:
Handicapping Library
11-28-2021, 08:50 AM
Replies:
27
James Quinn
Views:
7,036
Posted By
ARAZI91
Couple of More Classics
Also has Ziemba's Betting At The Racetrack and Mark Cramer's Thoroughbred Cycles
Forum:
Handicapping Library
11-28-2021, 08:41 AM
Replies:
27
James Quinn
Views:
7,036
Posted By
ARAZI91
Openlibrary.Org
Btw this is not one of these con type sites where you need to submit card details etc - it is part of the Internet archive.org banner and relies on donations and operates under Controlled Digital...
Forum:
Handicapping Library
11-28-2021, 08:27 AM
Replies:
27
James Quinn
Views:
7,036
Posted By
ARAZI91
Quinns 100 point "Blueboy" method
Take it (could be wrong) it's the same method outlined in his book "Class Of The Field" can be picked up used on Amazon for $1.55
Forum:
Handicapping Library
11-28-2021, 08:20 AM
Replies:
27
James Quinn
Views:
7,036
Posted By
ARAZI91
Screenshots
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Showing results 1 to 25 of 89
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