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Search: Posts Made By: eurocapper
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 12-22-2021, 01:37 AM
Replies: 43
Views: 6,143
Posted By eurocapper
For every data point you use in the handicapping...

For every data point you use in the handicapping you lose something in the odds value. The most lucrative approach is going by intuition if you can pull it off (as actually also advocated by Dr...
Forum: Handicapping Software 07-12-2014, 01:26 PM
Replies: 274
Views: 22,962
Posted By eurocapper
Perhaps it would provide some added value to some...

Perhaps it would provide some added value to some people over other (easier to use) existing tools if it also provided Bayesian (that I know you have mentioned here) or other data mining research...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 07-02-2014, 08:59 AM
Replies: 1,229
Views: 195,411
Posted By eurocapper
I would think twice about it, there are reasons...

I would think twice about it, there are reasons other than bigotry that it's not legal. Lower division euro soccer is corrupt, and US baseball also used to be corrupt (more than today).
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-17-2014, 01:18 AM
Replies: 32
Views: 3,742
Posted By eurocapper
My guess is dirt is the most tiring surface and...

My guess is dirt is the most tiring surface and hardest on closers. Deep sand would be hardest for a human athlete too. Aws has also kickback but still favors closers too. Dirt is the "abnormal"...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 01-15-2014, 02:58 PM
Replies: 14
Views: 1,498
Posted By eurocapper
In late biased racing (such as turf and harness)...

In late biased racing (such as turf and harness) I believe it's more of a factor. If a jock can win all the races of a day then they must have some significance. They may actually have psychological...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 01-07-2014, 03:51 AM
Replies: 24
Views: 2,150
Posted By eurocapper
I have myself come to believe the drug use...

I have myself come to believe the drug use equalizes much of that (since that's what it's for, to create consistency). The physical condition is probably more important (there might be issues...
Forum: Harness Racing 12-13-2013, 03:37 AM
Replies: 45
Views: 4,246
Posted By eurocapper
Maybe I'm wrong but I get the impression you are...

Maybe I'm wrong but I get the impression you are saying the crowd can be both right and wrong, by taking it into account in the model building stage but (as I gather from other posts) ignoring it in...
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 11-26-2013, 03:04 AM
Replies: 120
Views: 11,240
Posted By eurocapper
In my opinion class is whatever the average...

In my opinion class is whatever the average trainer thinks it is. It can be also Beyer, Ragozin etc. For obvious reasons in at least claiming races about every trainer has some notion of class...
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 02-19-2013, 12:02 PM
Replies: 105
Views: 7,089
Posted By eurocapper
In my opinion someone like traynor has a fairly...

In my opinion someone like traynor has a fairly good prospect of profiting with thoroughbreds if he would forget about pace and cold exactas and focus on trainers. Pace is yesterdays method. The...
Forum: Handicapping Library 01-02-2013, 06:45 AM
Replies: 144
Views: 16,499
Posted By eurocapper
I have ordered Mahl's book on pace, I have come...

I have ordered Mahl's book on pace, I have come to believe pace studies were maybe somewhat derailed by the Sartin/Brohamer group. But I also now believe one needs at least some intuition to succeed...
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 01-01-2013, 07:55 AM
Replies: 108
Views: 7,183
Posted By eurocapper
I think there is some miscommunication, you...

I think there is some miscommunication, you assume track variant is some permanent property of the track. Those that use it don't make that assumption, it's just something that can vary arbitrarily....
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-31-2012, 05:09 PM
Replies: 49
Views: 5,298
Posted By eurocapper
Ok I missed that these clusters are within a race...

Ok I missed that these clusters are within a race and not horse clusters in general. In my opinion for that approach some kind of win-% at that class level might be best for this kind of approach. If...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-31-2012, 04:05 PM
Replies: 49
Views: 5,298
Posted By eurocapper
No it would depend on the competition obviously...

No it would depend on the competition obviously (and if the trainer just wants to workout at the maiden etc.). For win percentage specifically I don't know if there is a better factor than a...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-31-2012, 03:41 PM
Replies: 49
Views: 5,298
Posted By eurocapper
I think horses are individual to a large degree...

I think horses are individual to a large degree and get even more so during their career with trainer switches, injuries etc. Horses from the same sire running in a maiden with similar appearance and...
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 12-31-2012, 04:44 AM
Replies: 108
Views: 7,183
Posted By eurocapper
Most of them appear to be either wire-to-wire or...

Most of them appear to be either wire-to-wire or stretch acceleration. So the track turn configuration may not apply for the WR, it would have a greater effect when going wide on the turns. I don't...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-30-2012, 05:00 AM
Replies: 117
Views: 11,919
Posted By eurocapper
Is not every speed figure a product of the pace...

Is not every speed figure a product of the pace scenario in the given race? Maybe pace is really what matters in horse racing (except the shorter QH where there isn't much pace).
Forum: Harness Racing 12-29-2012, 04:24 AM
Replies: 29
Views: 1,995
Posted By eurocapper
I don't know about mixing unrelated quantities...

I don't know about mixing unrelated quantities (and attempting to quantify drivers to boot). Some drivers better with some horses than others. Seems better to me to set a par value for some of the...
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 12-28-2012, 11:18 AM
Replies: 108
Views: 7,183
Posted By eurocapper
Maybe track bias is something that matters more...

Maybe track bias is something that matters more for low class horses (in the same realm as blinkers on/off). Some harness horses seem sensitive to shoeing too.
Forum: Harness Racing 12-28-2012, 03:26 AM
Replies: 29
Views: 1,995
Posted By eurocapper
In my opinion a mile distance is essentially a...

In my opinion a mile distance is essentially a sprint distance for today's standardbred (at least US bred) so I would not ignore final time for that distance. For longer distances it becomes the...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-27-2012, 04:36 AM
Replies: 29
Views: 3,778
Posted By eurocapper
Unless one is good at picking longshots playing...

Unless one is good at picking longshots playing singles is bad, since most others will likely pick the same horse. It's not just all favs in a row (which is rare) but the number of combinations on...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-26-2012, 01:45 PM
Replies: 29
Views: 3,778
Posted By eurocapper
There is software for reducing them with ABC...

There is software for reducing them with ABC systems, I have seen some for US racing too. If the betting service supports it the software can dispatch those tickets (maybe hundreds) automatically...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-25-2012, 12:32 PM
Replies: 29
Views: 3,043
Posted By eurocapper
I would prefer individual timing for the last...

I would prefer individual timing for the last fraction. If a horse gained lengths in the stretch on a tiring leader I don't believe lengths back are accurate even with the photo finish. Might also...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-22-2012, 02:53 AM
Replies: 29
Views: 3,043
Posted By eurocapper
What's closer - c ...

What's closer - c ...
Forum: Harness Racing 12-21-2012, 02:36 AM
Replies: 45
Views: 3,418
Posted By eurocapper
How is it different from usual trouble analysis...

How is it different from usual trouble analysis of the last race (watching the race, which even Beyer advocates and copied from harness handicappers)? If there wasn't real trouble it may be an...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 12-20-2012, 06:37 AM
Replies: 173
Views: 9,396
Posted By eurocapper
I found an article with an explanation for why...

I found an article with an explanation for why anti-bleeding medication is being used in the US but not needed on dirt surfaces in Japan....
Showing results 1 to 25 of 93

 
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