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Search: Posts Made By: dilanesp
Forum: General Racing Discussion Today, 02:36 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 533
Posted By dilanesp
It's not always helpful anyway. The running...

It's not always helpful anyway. The running styles are so different there. I can think of numerous examples if horses who engaged in completely different tactics over here than they did over there....
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-21-2018, 07:23 PM
Replies: 18
Views: 840
Posted By dilanesp
You are ignoring an incredibly basic issue, which...

You are ignoring an incredibly basic issue, which is where the two games' takeouts sat on the demand curve.

The fact that the lottery correctly lowered a 50 percent takeout does not prove anything...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-20-2018, 01:33 PM
Replies: 18
Views: 840
Posted By dilanesp
Scratchers are the preferred product for...

Scratchers are the preferred product for compulsive gamblers, because you don't have to wait to find out if you won. They are like slot machines in a casino.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-20-2018, 12:16 PM
Replies: 18
Views: 840
Posted By dilanesp
The reason I posted the OP is to point out...

The reason I posted the OP is to point out something very simple- gambling markets aren't full of rational economic actors. It is possible for tracks to make more money by making a bet worse for...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-19-2018, 05:31 PM
Replies: 18
Views: 840
Posted By dilanesp
the theory behind the jackpot pick 6....

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-10-19/worsening-odds-lead-to-bigger-lottery-jackpots?__twitter_impression=true
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-13-2018, 04:11 PM
Replies: 81
Views: 4,499
Posted By dilanesp
You can quote this back at me when he wins, but I...

You can quote this back at me when he wins, but I am extremely skeptical of Mendelssohn. I think he's a money burner.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-12-2018, 04:38 PM
Replies: 81
Views: 4,499
Posted By dilanesp
My mother calls 5 furlongs on the turf the new...

My mother calls 5 furlongs on the turf the new "American classic distance". She jokingly predicts that in 25 years, the Breeders' Cup Classic will be run at that distance.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-12-2018, 12:57 PM
Replies: 8
Views: 452
Posted By dilanesp
The best race I ever saw in person was probably...

The best race I ever saw in person was probably the 1989 BC Classic, and the most impressive performance was the 1980 Strub.

The 2016 Distaff was the best one I saw recently.

I love a good...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-12-2018, 12:51 PM
Replies: 42
Views: 2,567
Posted By dilanesp
Unlikely. I was going to be a scientist. My math...

Unlikely. I was going to be a scientist. My math scores were huge. I didn't think about being a lawyer until college.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-11-2018, 03:55 PM
Replies: 42
Views: 2,567
Posted By dilanesp
My grandfather put my father's name on a deed to...

My grandfather put my father's name on a deed to avoid real estate taxes, without telling my father he did it.

He then sued my father to get his name taken off the deed when my father found out...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-11-2018, 11:37 AM
Replies: 15
Views: 986
Posted By dilanesp
Askin, the way science works is you come up with...

Askin, the way science works is you come up with a hypothesis and then test it against future results.

The Dosage people retroactively fit a theory to prior results and then claimed 50 years of...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-11-2018, 11:32 AM
Replies: 42
Views: 2,567
Posted By dilanesp
Santa Anita is not long for this world.....

Santa Anita is not long for this world.....
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-10-2018, 04:04 PM
Replies: 42
Views: 2,567
Posted By dilanesp
I laughed, Andy.

I laughed, Andy.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-10-2018, 12:42 PM
Replies: 42
Views: 2,567
Posted By dilanesp
My grandfather was very litigious and sued my...

My grandfather was very litigious and sued my father once.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-09-2018, 12:05 PM
Replies: 46
Views: 1,926
Posted By dilanesp
Boutique tracks have to be careful about killing...

Boutique tracks have to be careful about killing the golden goose.

Especially since they have to convince horsemen to ship their horses there from other spots where they are stabled and running.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-09-2018, 12:04 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 744
Posted By dilanesp
There's nothing unacceptable about it. The San...

There's nothing unacceptable about it. The San Juan has been dying too. It's a simple matter of supply and demand- if there are horses available to run marathons, on either surface, tracks will card...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-09-2018, 12:03 PM
Replies: 81
Views: 4,499
Posted By dilanesp
Accelerate had a terrible trip in that race. With...

Accelerate had a terrible trip in that race. With a clean trip he wins much more easily.

And if he runs back to his Pacific Classic, he wins the BC by 5 lengths unless Diversify (who also had a...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-08-2018, 04:15 PM
Replies: 46
Views: 1,926
Posted By dilanesp
One thing to remember is that numbers are always...

One thing to remember is that numbers are always just one component of a handicapping strategy. If I watch a race and am visually impressed with a horse's effort, I don't give a hoot about the...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-08-2018, 04:12 PM
Replies: 42
Views: 1,821
Posted By dilanesp
If a racetrack offers a bet that has too high an...

If a racetrack offers a bet that has too high an effective takeout, DON'T BET IT. They offer show bets. Do you bet them? The takeout includes triple the breakage, which usually puts it well over 25...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-07-2018, 12:22 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 933
Posted By dilanesp
I believe his brother was Terry Gilligan, the...

I believe his brother was Terry Gilligan, the announcer at Santa Anita from 1972-74.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-07-2018, 12:12 PM
Replies: 42
Views: 1,821
Posted By dilanesp
I love Beyer. But he is not "standing up for the...

I love Beyer. But he is not "standing up for the bettors" here. He is standing up for a small class of pick 6 bettors (probably less than 4 percent) who make money on the bet.

For the vast...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-07-2018, 12:09 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 653
Posted By dilanesp
Santa Anita switched to a program with full pp's...

Santa Anita switched to a program with full pp's this year. I bet the stewards get that free. This is not a big issue.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-06-2018, 02:18 PM
Replies: 42
Views: 1,821
Posted By dilanesp
No. My feeling is that it's OK to exploit...

No.

My feeling is that it's OK to exploit small betters, but we give up the standing to make that argument against what racetracks are doing.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-06-2018, 12:47 PM
Replies: 42
Views: 1,821
Posted By dilanesp
The problem with Beyer's analogy is to most...

The problem with Beyer's analogy is to most bettors, ALL bets are crack. He doesn't actually want the racetracks to stop selling bets that are bad for small players. He just wants them to only sell...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-05-2018, 12:14 PM
Replies: 15
Views: 986
Posted By dilanesp
Well I know Seattle Slew ran ridiculous fractions...

Well I know Seattle Slew ran ridiculous fractions in 1978.
Showing results 1 to 25 of 500

 
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