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Search took 0.03 seconds. Search: Posts Made By: Wizard of Odds
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 11-09-2019, 05:15 PM
Replies: 25
Views: 3,954
Posted By Wizard of Odds
Prospectively, look for reversion to the mean... ...

Prospectively, look for reversion to the mean...

Prediction: Next 100 races will return approximately negative 15%
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 01-21-2019, 11:07 AM
Replies: 14
Views: 1,375
Posted By Wizard of Odds
What about ordering it as: Outside Post ...

What about ordering it as:

Outside Post
Second to Outside Post
Third to Outside Post
......


Also, adding win percentage
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 01-15-2019, 09:20 AM
Replies: 95
Views: 15,218
Posted By Wizard of Odds
So here is an idea (probably NOT original): ...

So here is an idea (probably NOT original):

Feed Video of Post Parade (or more paddock activity) along with all our data and results of the races into our Black Boxes (you know Neural Networks,...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 01-07-2019, 09:06 PM
Replies: 74
Views: 8,195
Posted By Wizard of Odds
I have to say that I'm also shocked.

I have to say that I'm also shocked.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 01-07-2019, 03:46 PM
Replies: 74
Views: 8,195
Posted By Wizard of Odds
Thank you

Thank you
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 01-07-2019, 03:13 PM
Replies: 74
Views: 8,195
Posted By Wizard of Odds
Please define these terms in the context of horse...

Please define these terms in the context of horse racing betting.

Thank You
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 01-07-2019, 08:57 AM
Replies: 74
Views: 8,195
Posted By Wizard of Odds
To put this into perspective: Let's say an...

To put this into perspective:

Let's say an avid fan of this small track is a great value handicapper and can attain a sustainable ROI of 1.25 (25% positive is, indeed, VERY high) on their bets and...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 01-06-2019, 09:33 PM
Replies: 74
Views: 8,195
Posted By Wizard of Odds
But that must have been an ususual night where...

But that must have been an ususual night where longshots won almost every race. If you bet like that every night, you would lose more than 20 cents for every dollar you bet on ANY track (an exception...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 01-06-2019, 08:06 PM
Replies: 74
Views: 8,195
Posted By Wizard of Odds
Starting to make me believe... let's see the...

Starting to make me believe... let's see the future on this one
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 01-06-2019, 01:25 PM
Replies: 74
Views: 8,195
Posted By Wizard of Odds
No problem.... Was it just randomness? ...

No problem....

Was it just randomness? Prospective testing might give us a clue
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 01-06-2019, 12:16 PM
Replies: 74
Views: 8,195
Posted By Wizard of Odds
That may be true, but is it enough to have...

That may be true, but is it enough to have positive ROI on select bets? Also, as you seem to suggest, perhaps there are other (non past performance) variables with important value impact such as...
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 01-05-2019, 09:52 AM
Replies: 90
Views: 8,197
Posted By Wizard of Odds
My predicted long term future ROI = .86 plus or...

My predicted long term future ROI = .86 plus or minus .05.....Let's see
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 01-04-2019, 11:18 PM
Replies: 74
Views: 8,195
Posted By Wizard of Odds
Then, are we all lunkheads trying to beat the...

Then, are we all lunkheads trying to beat the fair roulette wheel?
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 01-04-2019, 10:08 PM
Replies: 74
Views: 8,195
Posted By Wizard of Odds
Is a Positive ROI Attainable and Sustainable- How Would You Know?

By (1) fitting prior races, (2) validating with hold-out races and (3) further testing with additional races, you might find some subset of conditions that produce a positive ROI (even before...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 01-02-2019, 04:37 PM
Replies: 50
Views: 5,855
Posted By Wizard of Odds
Even if you the answers to these Hypotheses, I...

Even if you the answers to these Hypotheses, I believe you are still very far from translating that knowledge into actually making a profit.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 01-02-2019, 12:10 PM
Replies: 50
Views: 5,855
Posted By Wizard of Odds
Perhaps a more telling question is the breakdown...

Perhaps a more telling question is the breakdown of early speed criteria for ROI?
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 01-01-2019, 08:57 AM
Replies: 50
Views: 4,891
Posted By Wizard of Odds
Congratulations Oracle :)

Congratulations Oracle :)
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-31-2018, 08:34 AM
Replies: 23
Views: 3,763
Posted By Wizard of Odds
I agree - a lot of work to create a data base...

I agree - a lot of work to create a data base from scratch
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-31-2018, 08:31 AM
Replies: 23
Views: 3,763
Posted By Wizard of Odds
That's a very steep wall. In other words, I...

That's a very steep wall. In other words, I couldn't manipulate readily available data to create value (i.e., a positive ROI) for some subset of races/bets?
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-31-2018, 08:27 AM
Replies: 23
Views: 3,763
Posted By Wizard of Odds
I could learn database programming, but creating...

I could learn database programming, but creating a data base would be very tedious for me. Thanks for your encouragement!
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-30-2018, 08:28 PM
Replies: 23
Views: 3,763
Posted By Wizard of Odds
Hope you get well soon and the CBD oil speeds...

Hope you get well soon and the CBD oil speeds your recovery.

I'm very frustrated that I have all this mathematical, machine learning and artificial intelligence knowledge, but don't have the horse...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-30-2018, 08:28 AM
Replies: 23
Views: 3,763
Posted By Wizard of Odds
How do you think it would be viewed if I...

How do you think it would be viewed if I collaborated with someone who had the data? I am not a programmer, but I see requests for programmers from those who have data. Is the programmer who didn't...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-29-2018, 03:03 PM
Replies: 23
Views: 3,763
Posted By Wizard of Odds
There has to be an easier way than me starting...

There has to be an easier way than me starting from scratch?
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-29-2018, 02:10 PM
Replies: 23
Views: 3,763
Posted By Wizard of Odds
Ugggh!

Ugggh!
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-29-2018, 12:36 PM
Replies: 23
Views: 3,763
Posted By Wizard of Odds
I just read this on the bottom of the Website for...

I just read this on the bottom of the Website for a trainer:

"This product was created with data that were supplied by and are proprietary to Equibase Company LLC. All rights reserved. Reuse of...
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