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Forum: Handicapping Software 03-16-2024, 08:01 PM
Replies: 35
Views: 3,276
Posted By Dave Schwartz
Difference in what?

Difference in what?
Forum: Handicapping Software 03-16-2024, 04:01 PM
Replies: 32
Views: 1,308
Posted By Dave Schwartz
Turf, not turn. Short version: The...

Turf, not turn.

Short version:

The early pace sets the speed of the race.
A slow 1st fraction makes the final time slower.
Racing outside the US does not experience this because the...
Forum: Handicapping Software 03-16-2024, 01:33 PM
Replies: 32
Views: 1,308
Posted By Dave Schwartz
Love this. That was first written...

Love this.



That was first written about in Scientific Handicapping (1963, Ira Cohen & George Stevens). They called it SIMULATED PACE.


Link to Book on Amazon...
Forum: Handicapping Software 03-16-2024, 11:53 AM
Replies: 32
Views: 1,308
Posted By Dave Schwartz
imagine that ** I ** tested it against my own par...

imagine that ** I ** tested it against my own par numbers before settling on using Cramer/HDW's approach.

I use his approach but creating them from my Final Time pars is an improvement.

IOW,...
Forum: Handicapping Software 03-16-2024, 09:57 AM
Replies: 35
Views: 3,276
Posted By Dave Schwartz
I DID have a wrong filter in one of the runs: ...

I DID have a wrong filter in one of the runs:
Don't recall which one.

The full year.

But still no TINY TRACKS like Salem or Brown Cnty Fair.



2023.
Forum: Handicapping Software 03-16-2024, 09:31 AM
Replies: 35
Views: 3,276
Posted By Dave Schwartz
Nothing I post is ever WAY OFF. LOL This...

Nothing I post is ever WAY OFF.
LOL

This was a subset.

Total sample was 27,446.

Look

Race filters
Forum: Handicapping Software 03-16-2024, 01:16 AM
Replies: 35
Views: 3,276
Posted By Dave Schwartz
Brian, not trying to be in the middle of that....

Brian, not trying to be in the middle of that. Just adding my 2 cents worth.

FWIW, I'd say the same of you when it comes to integrity.
Forum: Handicapping Software 03-16-2024, 12:48 AM
Replies: 35
Views: 3,276
Posted By Dave Schwartz
headhawg, FWIW, I believe TopCat was an HSH...

headhawg,

FWIW, I believe TopCat was an HSH user years ago.

If I recall correctly, he is a very sharp fellow as well as a man of integrity.




.
Forum: Handicapping Software 03-15-2024, 08:55 PM
Replies: 35
Views: 3,276
Posted By Dave Schwartz
I wish I could take credit but I simply can't. ...

I wish I could take credit but I simply can't.

Even the formulas for my conversions came from Jim Cramer.

The guy really is brilliant.
Forum: Handicapping Software 03-15-2024, 04:55 PM
Replies: 35
Views: 3,276
Posted By Dave Schwartz
Here is the rest of the year (with winter...

Here is the rest of the year (with winter removed).

These are the hit rates I am used to seeing.

Of course, there is no profit to be found.

In our HSH system, the primary use for the major...
Forum: Handicapping Software 03-15-2024, 04:48 PM
Replies: 35
Views: 3,276
Posted By Dave Schwartz
Something else you might find interesting. ...

Something else you might find interesting.

WINTER RACING is... DIFFERENT.
And it's not about weather because it is in warmer climes as well as colder.

I have some theories but they're all...
Forum: Handicapping Software 03-15-2024, 04:30 PM
Replies: 35
Views: 3,276
Posted By Dave Schwartz
I don't understand how my PSRs could be producing...

I don't understand how my PSRs could be producing such drastically different hit rates.

Also, 2023 was LOWER by almost 2% from the previous years.

What I do is only slightly different and just...
Forum: Handicapping Software 03-15-2024, 08:56 AM
Replies: 35
Views: 3,276
Posted By Dave Schwartz
You show me yours, I'll show you mine. ...

You show me yours, I'll show you mine.

____________________________
In this sample below, I queried my database for the following:

Race filters
1-1-23 to 12-31-23
Dirt, fast tracks, 5f to 9f...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-10-2024, 11:56 PM
Replies: 25
Views: 2,585
Posted By Dave Schwartz
Just love this post. Spoken like a true...

Just love this post.

Spoken like a true winner.
Forum: Handicapping Software 03-10-2024, 11:54 PM
Replies: 35
Views: 4,808
Posted By Dave Schwartz
Prayers, Ranch. Lots of prayers.

Prayers, Ranch.

Lots of prayers.
Forum: Handicapping Software 03-10-2024, 09:41 PM
Replies: 32
Views: 1,308
Posted By Dave Schwartz
It's actually quite amazing. But there's...

It's actually quite amazing.

But there's always one more thing.


There's an old coder saying: "Being a programmer means never having to say you're finished."
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-10-2024, 08:21 PM
Replies: 25
Views: 2,585
Posted By Dave Schwartz
But you nailed it anyway.

But you nailed it anyway.
Forum: Handicapping Software 03-10-2024, 05:58 PM
Replies: 32
Views: 1,308
Posted By Dave Schwartz
PS: One more thing... The most revolutionary and...

PS: One more thing... The most revolutionary and best way to create pace ratings originated within the confines of well-known genius, Jim Cramer of HDW.

His approach is to take the fractional...
Forum: Handicapping Software 03-10-2024, 05:49 PM
Replies: 32
Views: 1,308
Posted By Dave Schwartz
OFFICIAL POINTS OF CALL (EqB)...

OFFICIAL POINTS OF CALL (EqB) (https://www.equibase.com/newfan/pointsofcall.cfm)

But I think what you're looking for is the actual positional calls shown in the data for:

F1 = 1st call
EP =...
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 03-09-2024, 12:16 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 839
Posted By Dave Schwartz
Thank you for the kind words, Jake. Yes,...

Thank you for the kind words, Jake.

Yes, I've done a lot but the impact of the Whales has taken everything in a different direction.

The biggest challenge is that the GATE ODDS (what I call...
Forum: Off Topic - General 03-08-2024, 02:02 PM
Replies: 28
Views: 516
Posted By Dave Schwartz
Back in my early 20s I had this friend named Greg...

Back in my early 20s I had this friend named Greg who was a big guy. Maybe 340 and about 5'8".

Needless to say, Greg was a big eater.

One day, Greg invites me to lunch at an all-you-can-eat...
Forum: Off Topic - General 03-08-2024, 11:09 AM
Replies: 28
Views: 516
Posted By Dave Schwartz
Of course you do. I thought that was about...

Of course you do.

I thought that was about the guy who said he was making it at home.

My error.
Forum: Off Topic - General 03-07-2024, 08:07 PM
Replies: 28
Views: 516
Posted By Dave Schwartz
No labor costs.

No labor costs.
Forum: Off Topic - General 03-06-2024, 07:51 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 350
Posted By Dave Schwartz
LOL - has to be in the running for reply of the...

LOL - has to be in the running for reply of the year.
Forum: Off Topic - General 03-05-2024, 07:56 PM
Replies: 15
Views: 320
Posted By Dave Schwartz
Thanks. Found it. Turns out Google is...

Thanks.

Found it.

Turns out Google is still my friend.
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