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Search took 0.13 seconds. Search: Posts Made By: Aerocraft67
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** Today, 08:52 AM
Replies: 11
Views: 715
Posted By Aerocraft67
Forever Young had a troubled start in the Saudi...

Forever Young had a troubled start in the Saudi Derby. He overcame that adversity, perhaps of his own making.

He took the Abdulaziz turn five wide, spotted rivals three lengths at the top of the...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** Today, 07:04 AM
Replies: 11
Views: 1,304
Posted By Aerocraft67
Bloodhorse highlights two runners that don't make...

Bloodhorse highlights two runners that don't make the 0:38 cutoff, Sierra Leone and Stronghold. My takeaways from those performances are very different. From the article:

"Sierra Leone unleashed...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-25-2024, 04:15 PM
Replies: 24
Views: 1,152
Posted By Aerocraft67
This was indeed my initial thinking. Or some kind...

This was indeed my initial thinking. Or some kind of "saver" usage.



This aligns with my subsequent (over) thinking. Maybe both "win" and "out of the money" scenarios get overbet, rendering the...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-25-2024, 07:33 AM
Replies: 24
Views: 1,152
Posted By Aerocraft67
Can you fade Fierceness?

Fair to draw a line though the sloppy & sealed Champagne. But hard to forgive the Derby favorite for the Holy Bull. How valid was his excuse?

He won the Florida Derby going away, geared down,...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-24-2024, 09:17 AM
Replies: 17
Views: 1,161
Posted By Aerocraft67
Seems reasonable to project a substantial speed...

Seems reasonable to project a substantial speed improvement given all the other things to like.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-24-2024, 09:10 AM
Replies: 11
Views: 715
Posted By Aerocraft67
I wonder if there's any net bias for or against...

I wonder if there's any net bias for or against Japanese Derby entrants. Do bettors shy away from a foreign path to the Derby? Or do they generously include a lesser-known novelty? Probably nets out...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 08-27-2023, 08:53 PM
Replies: 188
Views: 16,062
Posted By Aerocraft67
Happy to acknowledge this makes a point I made in...

Happy to acknowledge this makes a point I made in my last parallel post a day late and a dollar short. Thank you.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 08-27-2023, 08:45 PM
Replies: 188
Views: 16,062
Posted By Aerocraft67
I'm not telling you society is clamoring for...

I'm not telling you society is clamoring for racing to end. I'm telling you it has waning appetite to condone livestock for entertainment. Whether or not animal welfare radicals are the cause.

I...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 08-27-2023, 12:12 PM
Replies: 188
Views: 16,062
Posted By Aerocraft67
This is actually a good thread. It's helped me...

This is actually a good thread. It's helped me sort out a view on this. Unfortunately I'm finding it harder to justify.

Society applies morals to animal welfare inconsistently. We have big...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 08-26-2023, 06:13 PM
Replies: 120
Views: 9,457
Posted By Aerocraft67
:4: :2:,:4:/:2:,:4:,:3:,:6: ...

:4:

:2:,:4:/:2:,:4:,:3:,:6:

:2:,:4:/:2:,:4:/:3:,:6:

Saver super tossing :5: altogether, :1:,:2:,:4: from the bottom, and :1: from the top slot
Forum: General Racing Discussion 08-26-2023, 05:51 PM
Replies: 120
Views: 9,457
Posted By Aerocraft67
DRFBets projects just a little less for :1: Forte...

DRFBets projects just a little less for :1: Forte (9-5) and more for :2: Arcangelo (7-2). That's a good price for :2:.

:7: Scotland is taking some money, but morning line is otherwise pretty tight.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 08-26-2023, 11:58 AM
Replies: 120
Views: 9,457
Posted By Aerocraft67
Judging by Race 1, the track seemed pretty fair....

Judging by Race 1, the track seemed pretty fair. Although the closer, :3: Secret Lover, seemed to get bogged down on the rail at the top of the stretch, moved out a lane, and picked up a bit....
Forum: General Racing Discussion 08-25-2023, 09:04 PM
Replies: 120
Views: 9,457
Posted By Aerocraft67
I'd certainly be more interested in :2: Arcangelo...

I'd certainly be more interested in :2: Arcangelo at 7-2. I don't think 2-1 is outrageous, but I wonder if he drops below that. He's the one I fear most, and may succumb to using him more prominently...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 08-25-2023, 05:31 PM
Replies: 120
Views: 9,457
Posted By Aerocraft67
No die-hard frontrunners in this long route, but...

No die-hard frontrunners in this long route, but :5: National Treasure has only won on the lead and :7: Scotland can’t afford to get behind these classy laterunners. Best chance for :6: is to track...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 07-05-2023, 06:43 AM
Replies: 83
Views: 10,092
Posted By Aerocraft67
I did like the preview booklet. For the life of...

I did like the preview booklet. For the life of me, I can't find the last one I bought, which is a shame, since lots of the commentary related to post position and track configuration doesn't change....
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-20-2023, 04:18 PM
Replies: 23
Views: 3,179
Posted By Aerocraft67
Big of you, Zico, to put together a proper...

Big of you, Zico, to put together a proper analysis of this race. You flatter the humble event.

Now with the scratch, it's just :3: with a gap to :1: and a big gap to the rest, with :2: a rock...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-07-2023, 08:38 PM
Replies: 22
Views: 2,527
Posted By Aerocraft67
Well, defining an overlay is pretty nuanced, even...

Well, defining an overlay is pretty nuanced, even after the event. Putting aside statistical methods to determine that systematically.

He won the race at 15-1. Maybe his true likelihood was 10-1,...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-07-2023, 04:41 PM
Replies: 55
Views: 5,371
Posted By Aerocraft67
Subconscious? It actually crossed my mind, "they...

Subconscious? It actually crossed my mind, "they don't even know how to use an apostrophe, how the hell are they winning the Kentucky Derby?" I wasn't sure whether to check my bias like Cramer or...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-07-2023, 04:05 PM
Replies: 69
Views: 6,748
Posted By Aerocraft67
I bet him. He had similar pace ratings to Angel...

I bet him. He had similar pace ratings to Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice, and Two Phil's, but a hell of a lot cheaper. The New York analysts (Aragona, Serling) were keen on him to get a piece. He was...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-07-2023, 03:48 PM
Replies: 49
Views: 6,037
Posted By Aerocraft67
Hard to say just yet, but I'm slightly more...

Hard to say just yet, but I'm slightly more confident he'll be the favorite than the winner, and a bit more confident than that he'll be an underlay.

I've been on this guy all along, too. Hard to...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-07-2023, 03:40 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 1,302
Posted By Aerocraft67
Not a good day for a clunker. He broke sideways...

Not a good day for a clunker. He broke sideways and ground out a tough trip from the last third to the second third of the pack. He did get a look in the stretch but no one that finished ahead of him...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-07-2023, 08:51 AM
Replies: 22
Views: 2,527
Posted By Aerocraft67
The traditionalists dismissed him for lack of...

The traditionalists dismissed him for lack of sufficient foundation for a race that especially requires that. Of course, there’s merit to that reasoning, but I think it was the key to his value.
...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-07-2023, 08:13 AM
Replies: 26
Views: 2,438
Posted By Aerocraft67
Congratulations! Your horse has drawn my money...

Congratulations! Your horse has drawn my money every step of the way. May he continue to run well!
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-06-2023, 04:05 PM
Replies: 87
Views: 8,892
Posted By Aerocraft67
Kept noodling with the Derby tickets and didn't...

Kept noodling with the Derby tickets and didn't leave enough time for other races. Rather than repost the revised tickets, I'll just report that I added 22 on top, so 4/6 exacta, 4/6/6 trifecta, and...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-06-2023, 02:09 PM
Replies: 31
Views: 2,635
Posted By Aerocraft67
Oh man. Y'all better stop before you put :2: in...

Oh man. Y'all better stop before you put :2: in the winner's circle. He's not on my tickets, but at 15-1 and enough speed to get up front and out of trouble and no speedball to duel him into...
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