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Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-24-2024, 08:15 AM
Replies: 1
Views: 260
Posted By sjk
TRACK win pct POST CountOfPOST MNR 31.22% 1 474...

TRACK win pct POST CountOfPOST
MNR 31.22% 1 474
MNR 31.85% 2 314
MNR 33.56% 3 289
MNR 33.73% 4 249
MNR 34.27% 5 248
MNR 35.93% 6 167
MNR 30.70% 7 114
MNR 34.09% 8 44
MNR 29.63% 9 27
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 03-12-2024, 01:21 PM
Replies: 35
Views: 2,246
Posted By sjk
Hard to say whether someone from a standing start...

Hard to say whether someone from a standing start would have a good chance to catch and beat the CAW teams. It would be a daunting task unlike 30 years ago when getting something out of the data was...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-13-2024, 12:59 PM
Replies: 49
Views: 4,854
Posted By sjk
Some of the last minute price drops have been...

Some of the last minute price drops have been brutal lately.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-25-2023, 04:27 PM
Replies: 118
Views: 21,171
Posted By sjk
Linear models are great at comparing the...

Linear models are great at comparing the attributes of the runners but they don't capture the pace dynamics.

I start by making a line using the various runners past races but after that part is...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 12-10-2023, 04:44 PM
Replies: 121
Views: 12,517
Posted By sjk
Perhaps it was inevitable that in a day of short...

Perhaps it was inevitable that in a day of short fields and fast computers the pools would be so efficient that no one can make money.

Has anyone modeled out the decline of retail dollars whether...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 12-10-2023, 12:30 PM
Replies: 121
Views: 12,517
Posted By sjk
Thanks for confirming that NYRA is above the...

Thanks for confirming that NYRA is above the sorts of things I suggested.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 12-10-2023, 06:30 AM
Replies: 121
Views: 12,517
Posted By sjk
Perhaps the tracks don't even need to pay for...

Perhaps the tracks don't even need to pay for their financial interest in the CAW teams. They can pay with information.

What sort of information would be considered unethical for the tracks to...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 12-09-2023, 05:25 AM
Replies: 121
Views: 12,517
Posted By sjk
Makes me wonder again about the information that...

Makes me wonder again about the information that is not displayed to the public (blind pools) but which must be known to the racetracks if not in real time then after the fact to empower AI analysis....
Forum: General Racing Discussion 11-18-2023, 05:21 AM
Replies: 35
Views: 4,604
Posted By sjk
I was just looking at my results by track over...

I was just looking at my results by track over the past year or so yesterday. I have played GP sparingly and tapeta not at all for quite a while but I have thrown away more money than I should have...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-20-2023, 07:04 AM
Replies: 9
Views: 1,632
Posted By sjk
It is the computer assisted guys doing the same...

It is the computer assisted guys doing the same thing we are doing but better that are taking the money.

Of course taxes are never much fun either.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-20-2023, 06:05 AM
Replies: 9
Views: 1,632
Posted By sjk
No need for me to play make believe games that...

No need for me to play make believe games that last 1000 years. I have 30 years of history betting real money (70,000 races). I am pleased with my ability to make probabilities as I was discussing...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-20-2023, 04:46 AM
Replies: 9
Views: 1,632
Posted By sjk
I don't know Harvilles Law but I make probability...

I don't know Harvilles Law but I make probability curves based on projected speed figures and then do a calculation of the likelihood of each horse winning based on the naive assumption that the...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-11-2023, 04:05 PM
Replies: 43
Views: 4,153
Posted By sjk
I have had good luck making meaningful statistics...

I have had good luck making meaningful statistics out of this sort of thing. Each horse in a race has his own race shape and if you take a large sample of horses with that race shape you can...
Forum: Handicapping Software 10-11-2023, 06:23 AM
Replies: 17
Views: 2,170
Posted By sjk
I parsed charts for 10 years or so when they were...

I parsed charts for 10 years or so when they were text. When they changed to pdf I had no idea how to parse them and always figured that it would be hard to distinguish 1-11 from 11-1 even if I...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-06-2023, 03:51 PM
Replies: 1,073
Views: 308,751
Posted By sjk
Even that seems a bit fast. The timer stopped...

Even that seems a bit fast. The timer stopped when they got to the 1/16 pole and it must have taken 6-7 seconds to get to the wire.

Does he get to keep the track record?
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-05-2023, 01:18 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 1,738
Posted By sjk
My long-term return is 14.4% but it has been in a...

My long-term return is 14.4% but it has been in a long slide downward over 20+ years. I have no confidence at all that I will win going forward even though 2023 has been a profitable year. I bet a...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-04-2023, 03:46 PM
Replies: 56
Views: 6,016
Posted By sjk
Beyer Brohammer

Beyer
Brohammer
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-04-2023, 06:23 AM
Replies: 50
Views: 7,328
Posted By sjk
Black box program. Computer does it all.

Black box program. Computer does it all.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-25-2023, 02:18 PM
Replies: 118
Views: 21,171
Posted By sjk
What I would try: I imagine you are trying...

What I would try:

I imagine you are trying to estimate the speed rating next out so I would do regression where that is the dependent variable and you are trying to find the alpha to best fit with...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-24-2023, 01:42 PM
Replies: 118
Views: 21,171
Posted By sjk
I would think you would try it with one variable...

I would think you would try it with one variable first and then see if the second one adds value. Find the value of a length that best fits your predictions and then keep that value as you see if...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 09-23-2023, 03:46 PM
Replies: 46
Views: 3,535
Posted By sjk
Racing has not shown itself to be very good at...

Racing has not shown itself to be very good at attracting new players so you might want to look at it from the point of view of the ones they have who have bet many races through the years and what...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 09-08-2023, 12:17 PM
Replies: 300
Views: 28,937
Posted By sjk
There is a copy data button that puts the odds...

There is a copy data button that puts the odds and exacta matrix on your clipboard. Then you paste it to a spreadsheet where it knows how to parse the format.

I use an Access program to determine...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 09-07-2023, 03:18 PM
Replies: 65
Views: 6,795
Posted By sjk
Where the favorite is >=2-1 the results are...

Where the favorite is >=2-1 the results are better in the sense that -22% is better than -26%. Probably none of the above is the way to go.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 09-07-2023, 01:32 PM
Replies: 300
Views: 28,937
Posted By sjk
Yes. Been doing it the same way for about 20...

Yes. Been doing it the same way for about 20 years.

Amwager makes it easy to do.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 09-07-2023, 09:33 AM
Replies: 65
Views: 6,795
Posted By sjk
I ran the stats for fun and of course this is an...

I ran the stats for fun and of course this is an enormous loser everywhere else but you would be money ahead if you had bet GP tapeta this way from inception.

lol
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