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Forum: General Handicapping Discussion Yesterday, 05:33 PM
Replies: 59
Views: 4,648
Posted By classhandicapper
Here's an issue I am running into running a...

Here's an issue I am running into running a regression.

I have 3 factors and the finish position. I'm running a regression trying to get the correct weighting of each factor to produce the most...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 11-30-2022, 04:30 PM
Replies: 39
Views: 2,353
Posted By classhandicapper
You are probably right. When I was at DRF,...

You are probably right.

When I was at DRF, I was brought in on a meeting with some Ivy League statistics/computer experts. These guys said they built an automated self learning model that was...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 11-30-2022, 01:26 PM
Replies: 39
Views: 2,353
Posted By classhandicapper
That looks more like a change in payoffs from one...

That looks more like a change in payoffs from one period to the next that had little to do with the cutoff change since both WIN and EXOTICS changed similarly in the same direction. It's still an...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 11-30-2022, 11:29 AM
Replies: 39
Views: 2,353
Posted By classhandicapper
I hear you. I usually don't bet unless I have a...

I hear you. I usually don't bet unless I have a reason to think I know why the board is wrong. When I disagree with the board and don't understand why, I typically assume my figures are wrong or...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 11-30-2022, 10:50 AM
Replies: 39
Views: 2,353
Posted By classhandicapper
That would be one adjustment they'd potentially...

That would be one adjustment they'd potentially have to make to their margin of safety if it started happening.

For me, it would work the other way around.

If I liked #1 at 3-1 but he was...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 11-29-2022, 02:12 PM
Replies: 39
Views: 2,353
Posted By classhandicapper
What I'm suggesting (and could easily be...

What I'm suggesting (and could easily be misunderstanding) is that since they were the ones creating all the late odds changes to begin with, there's not necessarily a huge difference to them if they...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 11-28-2022, 08:52 PM
Replies: 39
Views: 2,353
Posted By classhandicapper
This is a question. Just to clarify, they...

This is a question.

Just to clarify, they are still allowed to participate in the WIN pool, just with a cutoff time? Correct?

If that's the case, I'm not sure why they would totally stop...
Forum: Off Topic - General 11-28-2022, 01:41 PM
Replies: 23
Views: 571
Posted By classhandicapper
Because Canada is right on the US border and I...

Because Canada is right on the US border and I never thought I'd see a scumbag fraud like him in power in a country like Canada. The totalitarian leaning leaders aligned with the WEF are gaining...
Forum: Off Topic - General 11-28-2022, 01:19 PM
Replies: 326
Views: 14,224
Posted By classhandicapper
You think a vaccination using just the spike...

You think a vaccination using just the spike protein portion of a quickly extinct virus did a better job of providing immunity to people than catching the latest version and building up antibodies to...
Forum: Off Topic - General 11-28-2022, 01:08 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 167
Posted By classhandicapper
Yellowstone is great. That's a tough comp for any...

Yellowstone is great. That's a tough comp for any show.

1883 is also a good show.

1932 is coming up soon.

There's also one called 6666 about the Texas cowboys supposedly in the works.
...
Forum: Off Topic - General 11-28-2022, 11:32 AM
Replies: 326
Views: 14,224
Posted By classhandicapper
I'd like to see the comparison between vaxed and...

I'd like to see the comparison between vaxed and boosted vs. unvaxed but recovered from Covid.

I'd be willing to bet anything that unvaxed that have already had Covid have better resistance to...
Forum: Off Topic - General 11-28-2022, 10:31 AM
Replies: 23
Views: 571
Posted By classhandicapper
TURDeau has more in common with some of the worst...

TURDeau has more in common with some of the worst powerful totalitarian sociopaths on earth than he does with people that value democracy and freedom. He's aligned with guys like Klaus Schwab, Bill...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 11-27-2022, 09:39 AM
Replies: 5
Views: 406
Posted By classhandicapper
The also rans in the race aren’t running very...

The also rans in the race aren’t running very fast but a number of them that got totally buried in that field have run faster or at least run back to their best form afterwards. There have been 4...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 11-26-2022, 11:41 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 406
Posted By classhandicapper
Loggins

Loggins the 2 year old Ghostzapper colt trained by Brad Cox keeps looking better and better as horses come out of the Breeder’s Futurity. IMO he was best that day and it has been a productive race...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 11-26-2022, 10:47 AM
Replies: 49
Views: 2,301
Posted By classhandicapper
If you think of horses in terms of “how fast was...

If you think of horses in terms of “how fast was this horse in terms of pure speed?” and “how far could this horse run against top competition and still be effective?” you aren’t going to come up...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 11-26-2022, 10:37 AM
Replies: 49
Views: 2,301
Posted By classhandicapper
The fact that horses are still breaking records...

The fact that horses are still breaking records despite the fact that we know the tracks are deeper now is the argument Jerry Brown uses to make the case that horses are faster now than in the past....
Forum: General Racing Discussion 11-25-2022, 11:21 AM
Replies: 49
Views: 2,301
Posted By classhandicapper
When Ruffian was running, I was just starting to...

When Ruffian was running, I was just starting to get serious about racing. I still have a lot of old DRFs from the 70s, but none with her in them. I think the Ragozin folks say she wasn’t as fast as...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 11-25-2022, 11:06 AM
Replies: 49
Views: 2,301
Posted By classhandicapper
Maybe someone could ask a track superintendent...

Maybe someone could ask a track superintendent that has been around a long time. From my memory, back in the 70s, NYRA used to post a chart with the track depth at various locations. I used to...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 11-24-2022, 10:14 AM
Replies: 206
Views: 13,336
Posted By classhandicapper
Wouldn’t it be ironic if this discussion lead to...

Wouldn’t it be ironic if this discussion lead to a tiny increase in the handle because people were tuning in just to listen to her and wound up making a few bets? :lol:

I can’t figure out why...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 11-21-2022, 05:14 PM
Replies: 29
Views: 2,069
Posted By classhandicapper
I didn't know Dave, but I did meet his father. At...

I didn't know Dave, but I did meet his father. At one time we were both regulars at the downtown OTB on Water St. It was called the "Select Club". His father was also a very knowledgeable...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 11-21-2022, 05:10 PM
Replies: 29
Views: 2,069
Posted By classhandicapper
I think we are at the stage where every major...

I think we are at the stage where every major factor has been covered in depth by multiple authors. That makes it tough to come up with new material.

One interesting area might be a book of...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 11-21-2022, 04:56 PM
Replies: 32
Views: 1,956
Posted By classhandicapper
I'm not so much complaining about grey areas that...

I'm not so much complaining about grey areas that come up as new information comes in or things change over time. Those can be addressed. I'm complaining about politics creeping into law way too...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 11-21-2022, 10:58 AM
Replies: 32
Views: 1,956
Posted By classhandicapper
I don't want to debate a lawyer on the law given...

I don't want to debate a lawyer on the law given my knowledge level is zero.

But intuitively (and possibly incorrectly) I think laws should be as precise as possible to avoid these issues. If...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 11-20-2022, 10:35 AM
Replies: 32
Views: 1,956
Posted By classhandicapper
I find it distressing that courts can’t even...

I find it distressing that courts can’t even agree on what a law means or says. You would think lawyers would be smart enough to leave no ambiguity so politics don’t enter the picture, but given my...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 11-18-2022, 10:50 AM
Replies: 43
Views: 2,644
Posted By classhandicapper
I don't know either of them, but no matter the...

I don't know either of them, but no matter the truth and what caused this, it's not a good look for anyone or the industry. Hopefully it just blows over and no one in the press covers it because no...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 500

 
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