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Posts Made By:
o_crunk
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
04-01-2024, 05:44 PM
Replies:
37
Enlightening (and scary) article on CAWs
Views:
3,333
Posted By
o_crunk
From what I've seen, it doesn't work like "they...
From what I've seen, it doesn't work like "they are focusing on 2 or 3 live ones". They are betting all of them to a degree. I had 5,000+ races of tote hub data. There were just a handful out of that...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
04-01-2024, 11:05 AM
Replies:
37
Enlightening (and scary) article on CAWs
Views:
3,333
Posted By
o_crunk
From the article: Experts recently told the...
From the article:
Experts recently told the TDN that the most successful CAW players can consistently win at an average rate of around 92%. At that win rate, a 13% rebate (for example) would see...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
12-12-2023, 03:38 PM
Replies:
121
Crist and Beyer lay into NYRA and Stronach for having financial interests in CAW's
Views:
13,028
Posted By
o_crunk
The primary customer of horse racing these days...
The primary customer of horse racing these days is state governments. Racing has to prove they are a viable and popular business worth supporting with tax dollars. This is why places like Saratoga...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
12-08-2023, 11:27 AM
Replies:
121
Crist and Beyer lay into NYRA and Stronach for having financial interests in CAW's
Views:
13,028
Posted By
o_crunk
You're all getting into the crux of the matter...
You're all getting into the crux of the matter and *why* the tracks want to have ownership in the biggest rebate shops. To think the likes of Elite aren't getting at least 10% in Pn's in particular...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
10-05-2023, 04:52 PM
Replies:
317
Today's Daily NYRA Fiasco
Views:
39,036
Posted By
o_crunk
Was it the stewards who erroneously reported the...
Was it the stewards who erroneously reported the scratch?
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
09-10-2023, 09:18 AM
Replies:
317
Today's Daily NYRA Fiasco
Views:
39,036
Posted By
o_crunk
NYRA is *ultra* sensitive to people saying they...
NYRA is *ultra* sensitive to people saying they get "subsidies". Any which way you slice it, it's mostly a technicality that they don't get subsidies. Everybody involved knows that without government...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
08-27-2023, 09:14 PM
Replies:
188
Maybe PETA has a point ...
Views:
16,237
Posted By
o_crunk
Sure. Since NY state makes breakdowns public data...
Sure. Since NY state makes breakdowns public data I'll tell you that the $25K claiming starts at NYRA tracks are twice as likely to have a fatality while racing as those above $25K tags and no tags...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
08-27-2023, 08:17 PM
Replies:
188
Maybe PETA has a point ...
Views:
16,237
Posted By
o_crunk
The "Racing Industry" has dramatically improved...
The "Racing Industry" has dramatically improved by accident more than some grand plan they implemented. When we look at the decline in deaths per 1K, I reckon that the decline is wholly attributable...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
08-24-2023, 05:44 PM
Replies:
300
"Fed Up With the CAWs..."
Views:
30,252
Posted By
o_crunk
This exacta payoff isn't even in the top 10 of...
This exacta payoff isn't even in the top 10 of the lightest at NYRA in the last 5 years. Just food for thought. If you think there is nefarious stuff going on, don't play. Unfortunately a lot of...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
08-24-2023, 04:08 PM
Replies:
300
"Fed Up With the CAWs..."
Views:
30,252
Posted By
o_crunk
What people typically fail to realize with CRW is...
What people typically fail to realize with CRW is this - they are trying to get back $1.00 for every $1.00 wagered. That's it as the rebate on the volume takes care of the rest. In aggregate they...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
08-24-2023, 11:20 AM
Replies:
300
"Fed Up With the CAWs..."
Views:
30,252
Posted By
o_crunk
Race 9 yesterday on the same card. 17-1 Cherokee...
Race 9 yesterday on the same card. 17-1 Cherokee Cottage over 6-1 Iguaszu had the exacta pay $194.50 for $1. There were dozens of twitter threads yesterday on the race 3 exacta payoff but I didn't...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
06-23-2023, 08:27 PM
Replies:
12
PETA lawsuit seeks to block NY's $455M loan to NYRA for Belmont Park
Views:
1,264
Posted By
o_crunk
Some of the claims made by NYRA about what the...
Some of the claims made by NYRA about what the loan will do are laughable.
Here's an article from a while back where the consultant NYRA hired to make the economic case for the renovations is...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
06-14-2023, 12:55 PM
Replies:
59
Casner on horse safety
Views:
3,665
Posted By
o_crunk
This handle data is little misleading. Couple...
This handle data is little misleading. Couple things.
-Total handle will include inter-race exotics only on the payout race. So for example, a P5 sequence that might have 2 synth races, 2 turf...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
06-04-2023, 10:44 AM
Replies:
106
Churchill-Ellis Park
Views:
11,482
Posted By
o_crunk
I have been developing off the RDS system for...
I have been developing off the RDS system for over 10 years now. It's a totally fine system and I'd guess the initial developers of it some 25+ years ago had both the domain knowledge and deep...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
06-04-2023, 09:12 AM
Replies:
106
Churchill-Ellis Park
Views:
11,482
Posted By
o_crunk
FYI Equibase has updated their RDS system to...
FYI
Equibase has updated their RDS system to close the CD meet on 6/4 and they've put a place holder for the track_id ELP for a meet that begins 6/10 and ends 7/2. I guess we will see Monday...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
06-03-2023, 03:28 PM
Replies:
106
Churchill-Ellis Park
Views:
11,482
Posted By
o_crunk
You would never alter the source of the data for...
You would never alter the source of the data for storing it as-is. For whatever the need is, and the need may change, you store it as it was transmitted from the "source of truth", in this case...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
06-03-2023, 03:01 PM
Replies:
106
Churchill-Ellis Park
Views:
11,482
Posted By
o_crunk
There are a thousand things within the Equibase...
There are a thousand things within the Equibase RDS system that I would do differently. For me those changes are irrelevant. The vendor is going to do what they are going to do with or without my...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
06-03-2023, 02:08 PM
Replies:
106
Churchill-Ellis Park
Views:
11,482
Posted By
o_crunk
The problem isn’t the case statement. The problem...
The problem isn’t the case statement. The problem is paying thousands of dollars a month for quality data so I don’t have to slip it in for a bunch of clients who want to fix something that never...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
06-03-2023, 11:50 AM
Replies:
106
Churchill-Ellis Park
Views:
11,482
Posted By
o_crunk
This is 100% correct of course. And I'd add that...
This is 100% correct of course. And I'd add that Equibase is charging a ton of money for data. You would think they would have an interest in maintaining integrity.
Let's see what happens with...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
06-03-2023, 11:04 AM
Replies:
106
Churchill-Ellis Park
Views:
11,482
Posted By
o_crunk
Is there a logical explanation in there other...
Is there a logical explanation in there other than "you guys don't know how to run a race track, so that's why we changed the track code. We know our customers better than you do"?
Honestly, I...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
04-21-2023, 01:32 PM
Replies:
60
CRW’s and California Racing
Views:
6,634
Posted By
o_crunk
One other thing I would like to note. When I...
One other thing I would like to note.
When I say "Elite" I'm referring to the entire umbrella of tote codes that is "Elite", of which there are dozens. To me, it's all one organization. To others,...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
04-21-2023, 01:25 PM
Replies:
60
CRW’s and California Racing
Views:
6,634
Posted By
o_crunk
To clear the air a bit.... I've done a...
To clear the air a bit....
I've done a couple of commissioned studies on the big teams - Elite, RGS, a couple others that have reached their level of play but have since folded.
This is tote...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
04-15-2023, 10:05 AM
Replies:
124
Here comes the AI
Views:
15,991
Posted By
o_crunk
I've done work for multiple tracks concerned with...
I've done work for multiple tracks concerned with this money flow. This is accurate. But here's the thing - it's always been this way. It was this way 15 years ago when RGS was more active and larger...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
03-08-2023, 04:36 PM
Replies:
65
This is not a good start for the year.
Views:
6,536
Posted By
o_crunk
I was wrong. Here's the correct data. Overall...
I was wrong. Here's the correct data. Overall handle -8.2% (-$18.2M) on 11 more races. -8.3 per interest (-$9.3K) and -11.7% per race (-$93.4K).
It's not so hard to admit when I'm wrong and...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
03-08-2023, 03:18 PM
Replies:
65
This is not a good start for the year.
Views:
6,536
Posted By
o_crunk
Through this morning, AQU handle at the current...
Through this morning, AQU handle at the current meet, which began on 1/1/23, is down 32% (-$96M) on 74 fewer races and 710 fewer interests vs the same period last year. Per interest is down 7.8%...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 278
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