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Forum: Harness Racing 07-13-2017, 05:01 PM
Replies: 0
Views: 713
Posted By traynor
Concepts

In 1462 Races 0.56 % of Winners had FASTER AP in LAST than TODAY
In 1462 Races 0.15 % of Winners had SAME AP in LAST as TODAY
In 1462 Races 0.29 % of Winners had SLOWER AP in LAST than TODAY

In...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 06-29-2017, 05:16 PM
Replies: 123
Views: 26,985
Posted By traynor
I agree. One of the great things about 2017 is...

I agree. One of the great things about 2017 is that it is a fairly trivial matter to hire someone to write (or modify) an app to scrape and re-format data any way one prefers. Then one can have it in...
Forum: Handicapping Software 06-19-2017, 07:20 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 10,578
Posted By traynor
Great recommendation! Thanks! Might be a bit...

Great recommendation! Thanks!

Might be a bit over the head of the pencil-and-paper handicappers, but looks like a good time investment for anyone using a computer for data analysis.
Forum: Handicapping Software 06-19-2017, 05:55 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 10,578
Posted By traynor
Great recommendation! Thanks! ...

Great recommendation! Thanks!
https://www.amazon.com/Algorithms-Live-Computer-Science-Decisions/dp/1627790365

You might also consider:


"Amazon Best Books of the Month, November 2011: Drawing...
Forum: Handicapping Software 06-18-2017, 10:26 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 10,578
Posted By traynor
Perhaps even more than you realize.

Perhaps even more than you realize.
Forum: Handicapping Software 06-18-2017, 10:23 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 10,578
Posted By traynor
It isn't necessary to know HOW ML, NN, and AI do...

It isn't necessary to know HOW ML, NN, and AI do what they do to understand WHAT they do. Most people are "mechanically incompetent" yet manage to drive various vehicles around with some degree of...
Forum: Handicapping Software 06-18-2017, 04:08 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 10,578
Posted By traynor
Thank you for clearly stating points I have been...

Thank you for clearly stating points I have been trying to make for a long time. "Basic programming skills" doesn't necessarily mean learning all the syntax of a programming language to write your...
Forum: Handicapping Software 06-18-2017, 03:55 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 10,578
Posted By traynor
With all due respect to both Einstein and Pareto,...

With all due respect to both Einstein and Pareto, the percentages may be even more extreme.

"The Pareto principle (also known as the 80/20 rule, the law of the vital few, or the principle of...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 06-17-2017, 01:39 AM
Replies: 58
Views: 11,825
Posted By traynor
It also has a meaning similar to "choking"--as in...

It also has a meaning similar to "choking"--as in two blocks jammed against one another to the point that no further movement is possible (alternately called "chockablock" or "chocked tight"). Common...
Forum: Handicapping Software 06-13-2017, 07:03 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 10,578
Posted By traynor
I think many of those who use computers to...

I think many of those who use computers to handicap races hope to beat the races (generically) rather than beating each specific race. The broad brush strokes derived from AI, ML, and NN tend to be...
Forum: Handicapping Software 06-12-2017, 11:44 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 10,578
Posted By traynor
Plain vanilla, standard laptop and desktop....

Plain vanilla, standard laptop and desktop. Nothing spectacular. Some of the most useful data mining apps (and processes) are well-suited to pretty basic computer hardware.

It is the approach to...
Forum: Handicapping Software 06-12-2017, 11:37 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 10,578
Posted By traynor
Absolutely. If one is using standard PP data,...

Absolutely. If one is using standard PP data, finding stuff that everyone else misses or overlooks is almost impossible. Whatever one discovers is guaranteed to be found (or to have been found) by...
Forum: Handicapping Software 06-12-2017, 09:32 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 10,578
Posted By traynor
Well, so what? If you are using a piece of...

Well, so what? If you are using a piece of software (yours or someone else's) that "builds models" using all the races in a specific clump, or all the races that fit a specific set of filters, it...
Forum: Handicapping Software 06-12-2017, 08:03 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 10,578
Posted By traynor
Studying Past Results

A good explanation of why handicappers "studying" their clumps of races so often go astray, and wind up chasing rainbows that don't exist in the real world. "Overfitting to a specific clump of races"...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 06-01-2017, 03:31 PM
Replies: 288
Views: 54,458
Posted By traynor
Absolutely. Well said.

Absolutely. Well said.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 06-01-2017, 03:25 PM
Replies: 288
Views: 54,458
Posted By traynor
Not guaranteed to perform similarly. Quite the...

Not guaranteed to perform similarly. Quite the contrary. Data mining horse races in the real world does little more than suggest possible trends. Applying other filters and processes to the mined...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 06-01-2017, 03:18 PM
Replies: 288
Views: 54,458
Posted By traynor
Paper ROI is equvialent to Ray Taulbot (and crew)...

Paper ROI is equvialent to Ray Taulbot (and crew) or many of the old PRN "systems" developing methods based on small samples. Based on results not wagered (only studied), rather than on actual...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 06-01-2017, 03:08 PM
Replies: 288
Views: 54,458
Posted By traynor
I understand (and fully appreciate) that....

I understand (and fully appreciate) that. However, as thaskalos mentioned, another (equivalent) set of races could result in a different (and possibly significantly different) outcome. And, as I have...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 06-01-2017, 03:03 PM
Replies: 288
Views: 54,458
Posted By traynor
Absolutely. That was the point. Relying on a...

Absolutely. That was the point. Relying on a paper ROI derived from studying a specific set of races and believing that value will be perfectly replicated in another specific set of races is a...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 06-01-2017, 02:39 PM
Replies: 288
Views: 54,458
Posted By traynor
Actual ROI matters. Paper ROI not so much. The...

Actual ROI matters. Paper ROI not so much. The study of the races on this thread is impressive, because it was made "going forward" (rather than retroactively determined by parsing past races). The...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 06-01-2017, 02:34 PM
Replies: 288
Views: 54,458
Posted By traynor
If the ROI was actual, and not just on paper, it...

If the ROI was actual, and not just on paper, it certainly does. Studying a group of 1000 races and finding a paper ROI of 1.05 does not in any way guarantee a 5% profit from identical wagers made on...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 06-01-2017, 02:26 PM
Replies: 288
Views: 54,458
Posted By traynor
I think Lawrence Revere's comment, "It doesn't...

I think Lawrence Revere's comment, "It doesn't matter who wins or who loses. All that matters is who ends up with the money." applies even more to horse race wagering than it does to blackjack.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 06-01-2017, 02:19 PM
Replies: 288
Views: 54,458
Posted By traynor
Consider--if the additional 100 race sample had...

Consider--if the additional 100 race sample had included an outlier (a larger than normal mutuel) it might have tipped the ROI of the entire set to increase, rather than decrease. Would that have...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 06-01-2017, 02:08 PM
Replies: 288
Views: 54,458
Posted By traynor
I think it is unfortunate that DeltaLover...

I think it is unfortunate that DeltaLover sometimes tends to underemphasize points that are more important/significant than the casual reader might believe. An example is emphasizing actual return...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 06-01-2017, 01:57 PM
Replies: 288
Views: 54,458
Posted By traynor
Like much else in life, "it depends." I cannot...

Like much else in life, "it depends." I cannot imagine anyone other than the proverbial one-trick pony applying the same betting strategy to every race. Different factor sets call for different...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 500

 
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