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Search: Posts Made By: ScottJ
Forum: General Racing Discussion 11-28-2022, 07:06 PM
Replies: 33
Views: 2,603
Posted By ScottJ
Ken Rudulph does not provide benefit to the...

Ken Rudulph does not provide benefit to the industry, TVG, the handicapper, or the audience. One can appreciate his desire to give morning television a shot with Good Day Sacramento as an...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 11-06-2022, 12:36 PM
Replies: 502
Views: 42,646
Posted By ScottJ
Flightline has been retired per the Press Release...

Flightline has been retired per the Press Release from Lane's End farm approximately 30 minutes ago.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 11-03-2022, 09:44 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 1,808
Posted By ScottJ
These are all charitable bets. Andy's selection...

These are all charitable bets. Andy's selection appears first in each row; the opponent's pick (which was derived from Twitter discussions) is the second pick. The "loser" of the head-to-head...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 11-03-2022, 10:59 AM
Replies: 19
Views: 1,808
Posted By ScottJ
Here are the ten $50.00 head-to-head charity...

Here are the ten $50.00 head-to-head charity plays with Andy's pick listed first. Aside from bragging rights, the winners will be the charities being supported. Good luck to everyone this weekend.
...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-28-2022, 11:55 AM
Replies: 53
Views: 3,662
Posted By ScottJ
Can you share the source of the data used to...

Can you share the source of the data used to derive these calculations? If you did calculations on the raw data, could you share those formulae?
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-28-2022, 11:47 AM
Replies: 53
Views: 3,662
Posted By ScottJ
Arguing against higher take-out pools is fine. ...

Arguing against higher take-out pools is fine. However arguing that a 24% Pick-4 wager is a worse proposition than a 16% Win wager does not hold water.

Is a 10% takeout Pick-5 wager better than...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-28-2022, 11:41 AM
Replies: 53
Views: 3,662
Posted By ScottJ
Let's take a fresh approach to this discussion...

Let's take a fresh approach to this discussion regarding the Win Pool at 16% and the Pick-4 Pool at 24%. Before starting, I acknowledge that 16% < 24% making a single $2.00 Win bet less "costly"...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-19-2022, 05:53 PM
Replies: 42
Views: 2,383
Posted By ScottJ
You need to understand the derivation of...

You need to understand the derivation of Poindexter's calculations. If you cannot calculate how he/she arrived at those numbers, it does call into question how you can achieve a 77% hit rate in the...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-19-2022, 05:45 PM
Replies: 42
Views: 2,383
Posted By ScottJ
Give the Binomial Theorem some consideration from...

Give the Binomial Theorem some consideration from Discrete Mathematics. This is the greatest non-77% admission of all time.
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 10-18-2022, 12:58 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 755
Posted By ScottJ
It is difficult to adequately explain how many...

It is difficult to adequately explain how many strategic errors are expressed here, but let me offer the following counter examples.

[1] Your screening criteria would have you playing a 7f dirt...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-17-2022, 08:17 PM
Replies: 42
Views: 2,383
Posted By ScottJ
Since the pools are independent, working under...

Since the pools are independent, working under this assumption assumes a correlation between the win and show pools that may or may not exist in any given race which invalidates the strategy.

Be...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-17-2022, 08:11 PM
Replies: 42
Views: 2,383
Posted By ScottJ
I cannot and will not contest your personal...

I cannot and will not contest your personal percentages.

As a theorem, yes, a 75% hit rate requires a $3.00 return per wager to achieve a 12.5% ROI. That is the mathematics which is undeniable. ...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-17-2022, 05:27 PM
Replies: 42
Views: 2,383
Posted By ScottJ
If we change your show price to $2.60, you have a...

If we change your show price to $2.60, you have a negative return. If we change your win price to $9.00, we have a positive return. How you derived your percentages (25% win, 75% win) and prices...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-16-2022, 06:16 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 1,199
Posted By ScottJ
Would you please stop? If you know how to use...

Would you please stop? If you know how to use the internet, you know that a "certain someone" was traveling today for family reasons and that "other folks" were stretched to cover today's live...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-12-2022, 04:33 PM
Replies: 7
Views: 1,011
Posted By ScottJ
Question for everyone that believes in Occam's...

Question for everyone that believes in Occam's Razor : What prompted anyone to do a blown up version of the original photo? The reason for asking is quite simple as the original photo at regular...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-09-2022, 10:23 AM
Replies: 46
Views: 2,487
Posted By ScottJ
Regarding the Vosburgh specifically and the dirt...

Regarding the Vosburgh specifically and the dirt sprint division generally, there was an extremely valid point raised by Anthony Stabile on yesterday's Talking Horses. He offered that too many...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-03-2022, 06:18 PM
Replies: 84
Views: 10,787
Posted By ScottJ
Yes, that is my perspective. White labeled...

Yes, that is my perspective. White labeled products offer nothing in terms of innovation to the game.

The actual underpinning technologies would move into the void created if those businesses...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-03-2022, 06:09 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 2,036
Posted By ScottJ
There have been many posts on this subject and I...

There have been many posts on this subject and I wanted to throw a thought to everyone. When you are about to fall off a ladder from four feet in the air, what is your reaction? Do you typically...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 09-30-2022, 11:01 AM
Replies: 15
Views: 1,853
Posted By ScottJ
The New Hampshire Lottery Commission licenses all...

The New Hampshire Lottery Commission licenses all gambling operations in the state. TVG is licensed; Twin Spires was not. Do not conflate the term lottery with only scratch-off tickets as it...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 09-30-2022, 08:39 AM
Replies: 113
Views: 5,790
Posted By ScottJ
You make a great point!

You make a great point!
Forum: General Racing Discussion 09-30-2022, 08:37 AM
Replies: 15
Views: 1,853
Posted By ScottJ
This action traces back to a mid-April 2022...

This action traces back to a mid-April 2022 investigation by the New Hampshire Lottery Commission contending that Twin Spires and CDI were illegally operating in the state. The New Hampshire Lottery...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 09-29-2022, 10:09 PM
Replies: 113
Views: 5,790
Posted By ScottJ
Talk about race sponsorships that did not survive...

Talk about race sponsorships that did not survive the test of time.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 09-27-2022, 08:31 AM
Replies: 84
Views: 10,787
Posted By ScottJ
Taken out of context, true. Here's the flow. ...

Taken out of context, true. Here's the flow.

This was followed by my quote.

My point was that DRFBets should not exist in the first place. Is there anywhere in the country where DRFBets is a...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 09-26-2022, 08:24 PM
Replies: 84
Views: 10,787
Posted By ScottJ
So your assertion is that every single dollar...

So your assertion is that every single dollar placed with DRFBets flows through to the tracks? No way.

Again, if you want to support the Stronach tracks, play directly with Xpressbet/1st. If you...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 09-25-2022, 02:29 PM
Replies: 84
Views: 10,787
Posted By ScottJ
Until the DRF buys and operates a racetrack,...

Until the DRF buys and operates a racetrack, paying purses to horsemen from their ADW, you are best advised to keep the wagering dollars in the game.
Showing results 1 to 25 of 96

 
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