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Search took 0.01 seconds. Search: Posts Made By: WhyWhyWhy
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 03-03-2008, 04:16 AM
Replies: 196
Views: 12,840
Posted By WhyWhyWhy
A doctor spends seconds looking at a sick person...

A doctor spends seconds looking at a sick person because he knows what he's looking at.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 03-03-2008, 04:11 AM
Replies: 196
Views: 12,840
Posted By WhyWhyWhy
Oooh a hater! Does my hard work piss you off? ...

Oooh a hater! Does my hard work piss you off?

If I were trying to impress anyone here, I'd pubilsh my entire method and knock all your ROIs down 10 cents. Maybe I'll do that just to jolt the...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 03-03-2008, 03:59 AM
Replies: 196
Views: 12,840
Posted By WhyWhyWhy
It becomes a bad thing when the rebate whales...

It becomes a bad thing when the rebate whales take money out of the pools that would otherwise be churned. If the rebate players lose with the rebates, then it's great.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 03-02-2008, 10:07 PM
Replies: 196
Views: 12,840
Posted By WhyWhyWhy
The only players bookmakers want are LOSING...

The only players bookmakers want are LOSING players. The rebated players are removing money from the pools that would be churned anyway, so losing them wouldn't affect much. Winning rebate players...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 03-02-2008, 09:58 PM
Replies: 196
Views: 12,840
Posted By WhyWhyWhy
A rebate shop is giving the player part of the...

A rebate shop is giving the player part of the profit generated by the player, through the rebate shop. Without the rebate, the player would simply lose their money and the OTB would keep...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-28-2008, 04:31 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 637
Posted By WhyWhyWhy
Santa Anita considers revolutionary new surface

DIRT!!!
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-28-2008, 04:30 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 1,380
Posted By WhyWhyWhy
How did the carryover get so big with all that...

How did the carryover get so big with all that chalk hitting?

"The Mets are undefeated in their six home victories." Ralph Kiner.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-28-2008, 04:28 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 1,385
Posted By WhyWhyWhy
Handicapping 2028

What will they think of our methods?
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-27-2008, 12:06 PM
Replies: 244
Views: 17,383
Posted By WhyWhyWhy
I find that math is great for perfectly answering...

I find that math is great for perfectly answering your questions without telling you if you're asking the right ones.

I view a speed figure as an incomplete performance rating, and a performance...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-27-2008, 10:21 AM
Replies: 244
Views: 17,383
Posted By WhyWhyWhy
ALL wrong opinions are horrors!

ALL wrong opinions are horrors!
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-27-2008, 05:06 AM
Replies: 244
Views: 17,383
Posted By WhyWhyWhy
(Regarding the example of the 78 beyer at widely...

(Regarding the example of the 78 beyer at widely different class settings)

Sure, the "pace component" will capture it, but so will the "class component." CJ might give the race a high pace...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-27-2008, 05:03 AM
Replies: 244
Views: 17,383
Posted By WhyWhyWhy
Performance ratings are the basis for power...

Performance ratings are the basis for power ratings. Two sides of the same coin.

Same with figures earned in the debut. Whether you call it a handicapping adjustment for next time out or a...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-25-2008, 10:36 PM
Replies: 244
Views: 17,383
Posted By WhyWhyWhy
ANY factor that you fail to account for in your...

ANY factor that you fail to account for in your performance ratings will continually hurt your ROI until you account for it. Simple example: Dutrow off the claim. Say you were blind to that and...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-25-2008, 10:44 AM
Replies: 244
Views: 17,383
Posted By WhyWhyWhy
I wouldn't. See my class example (78 against MSW...

I wouldn't. See my class example (78 against MSW at CD up the track versus 78 at Mnr in a 10 MCL winning or finishing second).

[/quote]In both cases, it would have a probable negative impact on...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-25-2008, 01:37 AM
Replies: 244
Views: 17,383
Posted By WhyWhyWhy
Ground loss is a minor consideration when it...

Ground loss is a minor consideration when it comes to adjusting figures. Several other factors, most notably class, have a greater influence.

An 80 up against a group of 65s is going to give up...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-24-2008, 05:37 AM
Replies: 244
Views: 17,383
Posted By WhyWhyWhy
The bottom line is this: the Beyer Speed Figure...

The bottom line is this: the Beyer Speed Figure is a numerical building block that can be used to make a much more comprehensive performance rating that is expressed as a Beyer speed rating.

If...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-24-2008, 05:34 AM
Replies: 244
Views: 17,383
Posted By WhyWhyWhy
Subjective because the universe is random? ...

Subjective because the universe is random?

The Beyer number is a raw final time adjusted for distance and surface.

Think of a race as you would a NYC subway car: everyone is going somewhere...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-24-2008, 05:31 AM
Replies: 244
Views: 17,383
Posted By WhyWhyWhy
Actually, CJ and the rest of us have all pointed...

Actually, CJ and the rest of us have all pointed out that the BSF by itself needs a little help. We just approach that different ways. As long as what we do turns a profit we don't have to look...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-23-2008, 08:28 PM
Replies: 244
Views: 17,383
Posted By WhyWhyWhy
A "performance figure" that only uses speed and...

A "performance figure" that only uses speed and pace is still incomplete, but it's way better than a speed figure.

On your other post you said you combine your speed/pace figures, but I hadn't...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-23-2008, 07:36 PM
Replies: 244
Views: 17,383
Posted By WhyWhyWhy
I understand your methodology, but you don't mix...

I understand your methodology, but you don't mix the two ratings into a single performance rating, so you are doing what could be done automatically "by hand." Someone who looks at the teletimer is...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-23-2008, 07:29 PM
Replies: 244
Views: 17,383
Posted By WhyWhyWhy
Damn, Robert Duvall could so play him in a movie!

Damn, Robert Duvall could so play him in a movie!
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-23-2008, 07:25 PM
Replies: 244
Views: 17,383
Posted By WhyWhyWhy
So is the DRF's method. Performance ratings...

So is the DRF's method.

Performance ratings are much more reliable than raw speed figures. All that's required to make a performance rating as a premise is that horses don't improve or decline...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-23-2008, 07:21 PM
Replies: 244
Views: 17,383
Posted By WhyWhyWhy
Only if you us a linear figure method that always...

Only if you us a linear figure method that always gives the winner a higher performance rating than the also-rans. That too is flawed, as no two horses are running the same race. The beaten-lengths...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-23-2008, 07:06 PM
Replies: 244
Views: 17,383
Posted By WhyWhyWhy
Or merely appear to. That +10 change in the...

Or merely appear to. That +10 change in the variant can be hidden if the pace of the later races is a "-10 pace variant." There are plenty of WEEKS where the track variant doesn't change, but I...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-23-2008, 01:43 PM
Replies: 244
Views: 17,383
Posted By WhyWhyWhy
I can see why people don't think this way,...

I can see why people don't think this way, especially if they are used to using the variant to make their figs. I just asked myself one day why (why why) I was using what happened in say the 8th...
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