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Search took 0.01 seconds. Search: Posts Made By: Ghostzapper04
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 02-22-2016, 01:12 PM
Replies: 37
Views: 4,077
Posted By Ghostzapper04
Even though they have the monthly series starting...

Even though they have the monthly series starting in very early January, Derby fever rarely ever catches on in NY prior to the Gotham.
Forum: Handicapping Software 02-16-2016, 09:58 PM
Replies: 28
Views: 7,216
Posted By Ghostzapper04
Thanks for the advice; going to read these.

Thanks for the advice; going to read these.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-15-2016, 08:42 PM
Replies: 43
Views: 3,791
Posted By Ghostzapper04
To expand on this, in graded stakes earnings: ...

To expand on this, in graded stakes earnings:

2010: $3.4M 8th in country
2011: $1.6M 19th in country
2012: $960k 32nd in country
2013: $486k 64th in country
2014: $361k 90th in country
2015:...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-15-2016, 02:59 PM
Replies: 74
Views: 6,963
Posted By Ghostzapper04
Get out of the habit of making the same bets over...

Get out of the habit of making the same bets over and over. A 5 horse super box is only the right bet in a few situations. Learn how to leverage your best opinions by utilizing the entire betting...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-15-2016, 12:36 PM
Replies: 43
Views: 3,791
Posted By Ghostzapper04
Been pretty bad for a while now. Shocking to see...

Been pretty bad for a while now. Shocking to see someone, who had 5 derby starters just 12 years ago, fall off a cliff.
Forum: Handicapping Software 02-15-2016, 12:29 PM
Replies: 28
Views: 7,216
Posted By Ghostzapper04
I set the denominator to 1 for every horse. Thus,...

I set the denominator to 1 for every horse. Thus, a horse that's 10:1, should have a numerator of 10 and a denominator of 1.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-14-2016, 02:42 PM
Replies: 126
Views: 9,858
Posted By Ghostzapper04
Junior should be suspended for this ride. Really...

Junior should be suspended for this ride. Really awful way to lose a super.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-11-2016, 10:43 AM
Replies: 2
Views: 658
Posted By Ghostzapper04
With Chrome gone for a bit they badly need some...

With Chrome gone for a bit they badly need some handicap horses out west.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-11-2016, 10:17 AM
Replies: 51
Views: 7,005
Posted By Ghostzapper04
That paper must be very expensive to produce, so...

That paper must be very expensive to produce, so they're trying to stretch out every penny before it sees it's last day. They want you online and if you're stubborn enough to keep buying the paper...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-10-2016, 02:47 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 1,980
Posted By Ghostzapper04
Are they any archived versions online? I'd love...

Are they any archived versions online? I'd love to see how the PP's were presented in the Racing Times.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 02-10-2016, 02:45 PM
Replies: 57
Views: 5,418
Posted By Ghostzapper04
Thank you!

Thank you!
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 02-10-2016, 01:36 PM
Replies: 57
Views: 5,418
Posted By Ghostzapper04
Agreed but the fillies shouldn't be limited. If...

Agreed but the fillies shouldn't be limited. If the only reason they're tentative about having another filly in the race is b/c of the Eight Belles factor, which is that they can sustain a...
Forum: Handicapping Software 02-10-2016, 12:39 PM
Replies: 28
Views: 7,216
Posted By Ghostzapper04
Got what I was looking for with this Odds...

Got what I was looking for with this Odds Calculator from Derek Simon.

(excel download)

https://valuewagering.files.wordpress.com/2016/02/fairoddscalculator.xls
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 02-10-2016, 12:30 PM
Replies: 57
Views: 5,418
Posted By Ghostzapper04
Making it nearly impossible for a filly to take...

Making it nearly impossible for a filly to take on the boys for the first time in the KY Derby is the worst aspect of the points system. I don't know why Churchill hasn't proposed a remedy to this...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 02-08-2016, 05:42 PM
Replies: 48
Views: 4,277
Posted By Ghostzapper04
Say a horse had the points and was progressing...

Say a horse had the points and was progressing nicely to the Derby at this time. What would be the odds you'd bet that the horse will even make it to the starting gate?

I wouldn't touch anything...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 02-08-2016, 05:41 PM
Replies: 48
Views: 4,277
Posted By Ghostzapper04
Bodemeister wouldn't have set that wicked pace...

Bodemeister wouldn't have set that wicked pace without sprinter Trinniberg in the race. The latter would no longer qualify to start in the Derby.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 02-07-2016, 10:57 AM
Replies: 57
Views: 5,418
Posted By Ghostzapper04
Rick Porter said after the race on TVG that...

Rick Porter said after the race on TVG that she'll be pointed to the SA Oaks.

I need to see more from her as a 3yo to believe that she's a Derby contender. That field was a croc.
Forum: Handicapping Software 01-31-2016, 01:41 PM
Replies: 28
Views: 7,216
Posted By Ghostzapper04
Agreed. After I've used this method and have a...

Agreed. After I've used this method and have a sample size, if what I think are 15% horses are coming in at 3%, I'm going to have problems. I'll have to keep a sturdy database of this, which I likely...
Forum: Handicapping Software 01-31-2016, 12:42 PM
Replies: 28
Views: 7,216
Posted By Ghostzapper04
Of course, but it's much more about being able to...

Of course, but it's much more about being able to identify massive overlays based on your handicapping than being actually able to compute exact chances of winning, which is impossible.
Forum: Handicapping Software 01-31-2016, 12:31 PM
Replies: 28
Views: 7,216
Posted By Ghostzapper04
LOL. Not in that sense. 'correct' in a mathematic...

LOL. Not in that sense. 'correct' in a mathematic sense i.e. a 3% horse should be 32:1.
Forum: Handicapping Software 01-31-2016, 11:06 AM
Replies: 28
Views: 7,216
Posted By Ghostzapper04
Very good info. Thanks.

Very good info. Thanks.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 01-30-2016, 09:24 PM
Replies: 31
Views: 3,979
Posted By Ghostzapper04
Finished the race as if he was completing a...

Finished the race as if he was completing a workout. His stride is incredibly efficient, such as last year's Derby winner, whatever his name was.
Forum: Handicapping Software 01-30-2016, 09:13 PM
Replies: 28
Views: 7,216
Posted By Ghostzapper04
Odds Maker

Hi all, I'm new to the forum. From what I've seen there are a lot of sharpies here.

I'm not a math guy so I'm hoping to calculate a formula or find software that will. What I am specifically...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-29-2012, 04:40 PM
Replies: 84
Views: 7,311
Posted By Ghostzapper04
Slow Horses

So, I've been reading "My $50,000 Year at the Races", published in 1978 recently, and I've noticed from the pp's that Beyer shows in the book, many races have horses running figs in the 100's-90's....
Showing results 1 to 24 of 24

 
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