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Search took 0.05 seconds. Search: Posts Made By: Dan H
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-24-2024, 02:26 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 391
Posted By Dan H
Thank you.

Thank you.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-24-2024, 12:06 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 391
Posted By Dan H
Handicapping Math: Cents/Dollar

In his book, “The Power of Early Speed,” Steve Klein developed a formula for calculating track bias. One step in his formula reads:

"Ignore any race won by a horse which went to post at odds of...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-02-2024, 09:47 AM
Replies: 73
Views: 12,993
Posted By Dan H
I live in California. My uninformed opinion (and...

I live in California. My uninformed opinion (and that of about five railbirds at the OTB) is that CA purses suffer in comparison to other states because they are not subsidized by other forms of...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 12-18-2023, 11:33 AM
Replies: 13
Views: 1,915
Posted By Dan H
Thank you to all respondents. I'm exploring an...

Thank you to all respondents. I'm exploring an angle for Turfway Park that promotes Horses for the Course and workouts overs synthetic. So far, the results are inconclusive. I'll treat Tdd as a...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 12-18-2023, 09:27 AM
Replies: 13
Views: 1,915
Posted By Dan H
I know this is an old thread, but I'm...

I know this is an old thread, but I'm handicapping Turfway Park for Wed. 12/20/2023 and one horse had workouts at Tdd.

What is Tdd?

Thanks in advance. I have searched this forum and all the way...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 12-11-2023, 08:52 AM
Replies: 121
Views: 12,803
Posted By Dan H
This two-minute limitation is important to me as...

This two-minute limitation is important to me as a recreational player. It is evidence that NYRA understands the optics. But I'll need proof. I'll watch a few replays from AQU last weekend to see if...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-06-2023, 02:56 PM
Replies: 50
Views: 7,539
Posted By Dan H
Pencil-and-paper handicapping process: 1....

Pencil-and-paper handicapping process:

1. Run a checklist against all races to find Good and False ML Favorites.

2. Ignore races with Good Favorites (until scratches or weather known)

3....
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-12-2023, 05:20 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 1,360
Posted By Dan H
Here's an idea that stems from my inability to...

Here's an idea that stems from my inability to find place and show horses with any consistency. I am hoping jockey stats (with other methods) can help me find them. I copied these stats from Brisnet...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-12-2023, 03:29 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 1,360
Posted By Dan H
Good point, thanks. No need to query any database...

Good point, thanks. No need to query any database on my behalf.

I have never really used jockey stats as a data point when handicapping, but every time I go to the OTB, I can't help but overhear...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-12-2023, 06:04 AM
Replies: 13
Views: 1,360
Posted By Dan H
Thank you, CJ.

Thank you, CJ.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-11-2023, 08:18 AM
Replies: 13
Views: 1,360
Posted By Dan H
Understanding ROI using Jockey Stats

I'm having trouble understanding jockey stats, specifically ROI. I have searched this forum and the web, but most answers provide the "how to" and not the "what it means" to a handicapper. Please...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 07-23-2021, 10:22 AM
Replies: 7,482
Views: 2,256,568
Posted By Dan H
Del Mar 2021 07 23 False Favorite Predictions using TMoves and BRIS pp’s

These predictions are not part of a test or exercise. They are my first attempt to predict DF, VF, and FFs at a major track. Use for entertainment only:

(Before Scratches)

R01) #2 WAA .. (8/5)...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 07-21-2021, 09:13 PM
Replies: 7,482
Views: 2,256,568
Posted By Dan H
R01) #1 CP … (2/1) VF - Off at 7/5 - Third -...

R01) #1 CP … (2/1) VF - Off at 7/5 - Third - Winner paid $11.00
R02) #4 IH …. (2/1) DF - Off at 3/2 - Third - Winner paid $23.20
R03) #5 VW .. (8/5) DF - Off at 9/5 - Won
R04) #2 MS … (5/2) FF...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 07-21-2021, 01:07 PM
Replies: 7,482
Views: 2,256,568
Posted By Dan H
Greg, the real purpose of this exercise is to...

Greg, the real purpose of this exercise is to give myself a reason(s) to identify races I should pass. I lack that discipline, but am working on it.

A deserved favorite signals me to move along...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 07-21-2021, 12:52 PM
Replies: 7,482
Views: 2,256,568
Posted By Dan H
Indiana Grand 2021 07 21 False Favorite...

Indiana Grand 2021 07 21 False Favorite Predictions using TMoves and BRIS pp’s

(After scratches)

R01) #1 CP .… (2/1) VF - Failed 3 of 5 Factors (bias, class, placement)
R02) #4 IH …. (2/1) DF...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 07-20-2021, 08:19 PM
Replies: 7,482
Views: 2,256,568
Posted By Dan H
Results - Indiana Grand 2021 07 20 False Favorite...

Results - Indiana Grand 2021 07 20 False Favorite Predictions

R01) #6 Over … (5/2) DF - Off at 8/5 - Second - Winner paid $13.60
R02) #3 Ceci …. (8/5) VF - Off at 2/1 - Second - Winner paid $5.40...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 07-20-2021, 01:55 PM
Replies: 7,482
Views: 2,256,568
Posted By Dan H
Me too. For now, I'm limiting my testing to...

Me too.

For now, I'm limiting my testing to small tracks, small purses, and small fields. Plus, this exercise took about 2 hours this morning and the results aren't actionable (yet).

But it...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 07-20-2021, 12:48 PM
Replies: 7,482
Views: 2,256,568
Posted By Dan H
Indiana Grand 2021 07 20 False Favorite Predictions using TMoves and BRIS pp’s

See Post 7413 for notes relevant to this exercise.

(After scratches)

R01) #6 Over … (5/2) DF - No Value - Pass Race
R02) #3 Ceci …. (8/5) VF - Failed 3 of 6 Factors
R03) #5 Cha ….. (9/5) FF -...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 07-19-2021, 06:39 PM
Replies: 7,482
Views: 2,256,568
Posted By Dan H
Results of False Favorite Exercise at Indiana Grand 2021 07 19

R01) #1 Rhett Th … (3/5) DF - Off at 1/2 - Won
R02) #3 Treasury … (4/5) DF - Off at 1/5 - Won
R03) #1 Lieutena …. (2/1) VF - Off at 9/5 - Second
R04) #3 Chipoff t …. (2/1) DF - Off at 1/2 - Third...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 07-19-2021, 01:24 PM
Replies: 7,482
Views: 2,256,568
Posted By Dan H
Indiana Downs 2021 07 19 False Favorite Predictions using TMoves and BRIS pp’s

Indiana Downs 2021 07 19 False Favorite Predictions using TMoves and BRIS pp’s

(After scratches)

R01) #1 Rhett Th…...... (3/5) DF - No Value - Pass Race
R02) #3 Treasury........ (4/5) DF - No...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 07-11-2021, 06:46 AM
Replies: 7,482
Views: 2,256,568
Posted By Dan H
Gulfstream Park 2021 07 10 Pace-Setter Results ...

Gulfstream Park 2021 07 10 Pace-Setter Results

R01) #6 Ethos .... (3/1) Leader at 2C .. Finished 1st at (1/1) $4.20 .. $2.80
R02) None
R03) #7 Baham .. (2/1) 2L Back at 2C .. Finished 4th at...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 07-10-2021, 11:59 AM
Replies: 7,482
Views: 2,256,568
Posted By Dan H
Emerald Downs 2021 07 10 Pace-Setter Predictions using Trainer Moves

Used the run rules in Post # 7378 of this thread. This took about 32 minutes to complete - much of that typing into this post.

R01) #3 Cou . 5 of 7 rules . (9/2) Power Number / Early Speed
R02)...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 07-10-2021, 10:50 AM
Replies: 7,482
Views: 2,256,568
Posted By Dan H
Gulfstream Park 2021 07 10 Pace-Setter Predictions using Trainer Moves

Used the run rules in Post # 7378 of this thread, but added a mandatory class factor to selection criteria. This took about 60 minutes to complete - much of that typing into this post.

R01) #6...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 07-09-2021, 06:17 PM
Replies: 7,482
Views: 2,256,568
Posted By Dan H
Gulfstream Park 2021 07 09 Pace-Setter...

Gulfstream Park 2021 07 09 Pace-Setter Predictions using Trainer Moves

Results

R01) #7 Straight to .... $2 WP (7/2 ML) (5/2 PTO) Led at 2C - Finished 3rd - Legitimate Pace-Setter
R02) #3...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 07-09-2021, 12:52 PM
Replies: 7,482
Views: 2,256,568
Posted By Dan H
Gulfstream Park 2021 07 09 Pace-Setter Predictions using Trainer Moves

Last post today. I promise. Not sure anybody's followng.

Gulfstream Park 2021 07 09 Pace-Setter Predictions using Trainer Moves

(After scratches) (Spot Plays In Races 1, 3, 6, 7)

R01) #7...
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