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Search: Posts Made By: JPinMaryland
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-24-2013, 02:39 PM
Replies: 262
Views: 22,525
Posted By JPinMaryland
I tend to agree with that, he seems to have one...

I tend to agree with that, he seems to have one big run in him. Orbs best trait seems to be his ability to run a 48 or 49 half mile near the end of the race. This is probably very useful for the...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-24-2013, 02:38 PM
Replies: 140
Views: 7,701
Posted By JPinMaryland
while we're on the subject of final fractions,...

while we're on the subject of final fractions, what did people think of the Ark Derby? They kept knocking the final time which was slow, but I thought Overanalyze finished up pretty strong. Going...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-24-2013, 02:22 AM
Replies: 140
Views: 7,701
Posted By JPinMaryland
It would be helpful if you could be more specific...

It would be helpful if you could be more specific in your comments. Namely, was he trying to compare an older Zenyatta to a 3 year old Orb. I did not realize that, but your comments are not entirely...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-23-2013, 10:32 PM
Replies: 140
Views: 7,701
Posted By JPinMaryland
Yeah but Zenyatta's a closer and so is Orb so I...

Yeah but Zenyatta's a closer and so is Orb so I would expect them to run similar, assuming the track is the same and they are in similar running positions.

Also you are saying Zenyatta is...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-23-2013, 10:27 PM
Replies: 37
Views: 3,604
Posted By JPinMaryland
So if everyone jumps in the lake, it's ok to jump...

So if everyone jumps in the lake, it's ok to jump in the lake too? The problem I have with this part of your argument is that simply because speed figures have the same limitations as other methods...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-23-2013, 12:43 PM
Replies: 29
Views: 2,248
Posted By JPinMaryland
How do you come out on Golden Soul? Not up there...

How do you come out on Golden Soul? Not up there with these ones?
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-23-2013, 12:38 PM
Replies: 140
Views: 7,701
Posted By JPinMaryland
well I have Orb running the final 1/8 in the Fl...

well I have Orb running the final 1/8 in the Fl derby in about 13 seconds. Is that good for that track? I used to keep track of this stuff, but then I stopped playing, threw out records, had a pc...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-23-2013, 03:41 AM
Replies: 262
Views: 22,525
Posted By JPinMaryland
Im not sure how logical it is to run Orb here....

Im not sure how logical it is to run Orb here. This horse has nothing much left to prove, at least as far this spring campaign goes. Why not wait for the Travers or the fall?

Also I thought Shug...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-23-2013, 03:37 AM
Replies: 37
Views: 3,604
Posted By JPinMaryland
That article by Jerardi is both a little silly at...

That article by Jerardi is both a little silly at times and pretty interesting too.

The silly bit is this constant promotion of BSFs. I guess that is how they make their money. But it's basically...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-23-2013, 03:09 AM
Replies: 140
Views: 7,701
Posted By JPinMaryland
I was actually shocked to find Orb had dropped to...

I was actually shocked to find Orb had dropped to 3-5 on sat afternoon, after morning line of what? even money? I didn't see all the broadcast but it seemed every body was picking ORb. That was so...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-22-2013, 07:23 PM
Replies: 140
Views: 7,701
Posted By JPinMaryland
the last time I saw this ROI vs odds graph, the...

the last time I saw this ROI vs odds graph, the curve was downward at both ends, and the peak was at that pt. where the odds matched the number of horses in the field. So in a 7 horse race, the...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-22-2013, 07:08 PM
Replies: 140
Views: 7,701
Posted By JPinMaryland
I wasn't meaning to insult anyone Raybo it was...

I wasn't meaning to insult anyone Raybo it was more about the level of the discussion. I get your frustration, I wish people here would treat everyone with respect, and try to achieve some sort of...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-22-2013, 06:58 PM
Replies: 140
Views: 7,701
Posted By JPinMaryland
If you understand raybos starting premise: that...

If you understand raybos starting premise: that you can pick any horse in any race you want to, then it's not a bad bet at all. I am sure that a good bettor could find decent 3-5 bets at least every...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-22-2013, 06:50 PM
Replies: 262
Views: 22,525
Posted By JPinMaryland
Orb deserves some time off he's had a successful...

Orb deserves some time off he's had a successful and hard campaign this spring.

I don't want any part of Palace Malice, blinkers off this time, huh?
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-22-2013, 03:05 PM
Replies: 140
Views: 7,701
Posted By JPinMaryland
You have no way of proving a 3/5 bet is a losing...

You have no way of proving a 3/5 bet is a losing proposition, either.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-22-2013, 01:03 PM
Replies: 140
Views: 7,701
Posted By JPinMaryland
We all respect your vast handicapping knowledge....

We all respect your vast handicapping knowledge. Can you tell me of any objective way you would have of proving which horses were deserved 3-5 favorites?

I for one, would love to know your...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-22-2013, 01:31 AM
Replies: 140
Views: 7,701
Posted By JPinMaryland
serious horse talk from the professionals...

serious horse talk from the professionals...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-20-2013, 09:23 PM
Replies: 29
Views: 2,248
Posted By JPinMaryland
I like to study the running position as well as...

I like to study the running position as well as the final fractions for the derby runners in order to find value. Rough calculations show Orb coming home in about 25.9, Goldsoul 26 and Mylute 26.1....
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-20-2013, 09:07 PM
Replies: 140
Views: 7,701
Posted By JPinMaryland
BObby is under no obligation to repeat whatever...

BObby is under no obligation to repeat whatever was said he has his own countervailing opinions. There's no way any of us can prove objectively what his true odds were. If the horse just couldn't...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-20-2013, 07:48 PM
Replies: 29
Views: 2,248
Posted By JPinMaryland
He looked like he was ahead of REv at some pt in...

He looked like he was ahead of REv at some pt in the stretch of the LA derby but didn't really seem to dig in and want it. IN the derby I thought he kind of turned his head when eyeballed in the...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-20-2013, 01:34 PM
Replies: 29
Views: 2,248
Posted By JPinMaryland
I watched that as well. It's hard to make any...

I watched that as well. It's hard to make any firm conclusions about a race like that, but it sort of reminded me of a horse, I think it was Any GIven Saturday, who lost a stretch run in the Tampa...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-20-2013, 01:20 PM
Replies: 29
Views: 2,248
Posted By JPinMaryland
I will pass on Belmont. It's extremely difficult...

I will pass on Belmont. It's extremely difficult to have any idea how these three year olds will do running a distance they have never run nor will ever run again. It seems like a total crap shot.
...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-20-2013, 12:49 AM
Replies: 22
Views: 1,774
Posted By JPinMaryland
the only problem is these are the same breed of...

the only problem is these are the same breed of horse, coming out of the same gene pool. It's not like they don't care anymore or are somehow an inferior breed or they got paid millions so now they...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-20-2013, 12:08 AM
Replies: 140
Views: 7,701
Posted By JPinMaryland
WHat about the track condition on the inside?...

WHat about the track condition on the inside? Also Orb had to run inside of other horses. There were any number of factors one could cite, and there's no reason to think he wont come back.

Other...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-19-2013, 11:40 PM
Replies: 29
Views: 2,248
Posted By JPinMaryland
the problem with Mylute in my opinion is he does...

the problem with Mylute in my opinion is he does not want to pass horses. He had the best or one of the best final fractions in the derby and again yesterday. He can run as fast any of them but he...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 500

 
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