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Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-14-2018, 12:23 PM
Replies: 288
Views: 9,871
Posted By classhandicapper
I'm really sorry to hear this CJ. Thoughts and...

I'm really sorry to hear this CJ. Thoughts and prayers.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-11-2018, 11:19 AM
Replies: 21
Views: 817
Posted By classhandicapper
I agree with what you saying except for one...

I agree with what you saying except for one thing.

It's really hard for me to imagine that after a couple of hundred years of racing on turf that trainers, jockeys, and handicappers have all been...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-11-2018, 11:10 AM
Replies: 5
Views: 296
Posted By classhandicapper
Too bad. I was hoping we'd get the best of...

Too bad.

I was hoping we'd get the best of both worlds.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-11-2018, 10:00 AM
Replies: 81
Views: 4,293
Posted By classhandicapper
Mendy's best figure in Dubai was bias aided. ...

Mendy's best figure in Dubai was bias aided.

He seems to be improving, but imo it will be a tough task to go from where he is now to setting or stalking the pace in a bigger tougher field than...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-11-2018, 09:57 AM
Replies: 81
Views: 4,293
Posted By classhandicapper
I have nothing personal against the PA Derby, but...

I have nothing personal against the PA Derby, but some of those other horses already had deeper resumes against the highest quality 3yos in very big races. In this case you are betting on the horse...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-11-2018, 09:49 AM
Replies: 5
Views: 296
Posted By classhandicapper
Equibase New GPS Tracking System

https://www.equibase.com/content/news/releases/101118release.cfm
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-11-2018, 09:34 AM
Replies: 21
Views: 817
Posted By classhandicapper
There are more extremely slow paces on turf....

There are more extremely slow paces on turf. Those can impact the times. But the smaller variations that are typical don't have much impact on the results in turf races as they do on dirt.

If...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-10-2018, 07:46 PM
Replies: 21
Views: 817
Posted By classhandicapper
Having sectional times can only help, but turf...

Having sectional times can only help, but turf paces tend to be relatively slow and the horses full of run late. It's my experience that small variations in pace from average on turf have less of an...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-10-2018, 04:52 PM
Replies: 81
Views: 4,293
Posted By classhandicapper
Any chance Drosselmeyer can make a quick...

Any chance Drosselmeyer can make a quick comeback? ;)

To me, it feels like a race where some "ok" horse catches a track or pace that suits his style and none of the better horses is good enough...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-10-2018, 01:26 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 629
Posted By classhandicapper
I would have guessed the stewards get comped PPs.

I would have guessed the stewards get comped PPs.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-10-2018, 01:14 PM
Replies: 81
Views: 4,293
Posted By classhandicapper
If you are going to take a strong stand against...

If you are going to take a strong stand against Accelerate who are you going to take against him?

I'm not a particularly big fan of the 3yos, unless you want to argue that Mendelssohn's effort...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-09-2018, 12:01 PM
Replies: 81
Views: 4,293
Posted By classhandicapper
I didn't think Accelerate ran that poorly in his...

I didn't think Accelerate ran that poorly in his last race even though it came up slow. It's not easy racing wide into the 1st turn when they are moving at a pretty good clip up front and you are...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-09-2018, 10:43 AM
Replies: 3
Views: 757
Posted By classhandicapper
Is this still an issue? If so, send me a...

Is this still an issue?

If so, send me a note with some information on computer, browser, versions etc.. and I'll get it to the right person. You may just want to clear your cache first and try...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-29-2018, 09:04 AM
Replies: 288
Views: 9,871
Posted By classhandicapper
Horses don't have the same amount of natural...

Horses don't have the same amount of natural speed even when their overall abilities are similar.

No decision by a jockey or change in training method by a trainer was going to put Zenyatta on...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-28-2018, 05:00 PM
Replies: 288
Views: 9,871
Posted By classhandicapper
One reason I bought up probabilities earlier in...

One reason I bought up probabilities earlier in the thread is that even after I assign running styles and do my analysis, the horses don't always cooperate. So if I make pace projections, I want to...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-28-2018, 02:45 PM
Replies: 288
Views: 9,871
Posted By classhandicapper
It's probably best to evaluate each quarter...

It's probably best to evaluate each quarter individually (or at least look for extreme quarters), but it's difficult to understand and measure how the endless combinations impact horses. It will make...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-28-2018, 02:13 PM
Replies: 288
Views: 9,871
Posted By classhandicapper
I agree with you. Plus, the game itself...

I agree with you.

Plus, the game itself changes.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-28-2018, 01:37 PM
Replies: 288
Views: 9,871
Posted By classhandicapper
I think what everyone is saying is important. ...

I think what everyone is saying is important.

The pace pattern of a race could favor horses that ran a certain way within it.

The individual fractions are a more detailed analysis of what a...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-28-2018, 10:01 AM
Replies: 288
Views: 9,871
Posted By classhandicapper
Thaskalos Your post is perfectly clear and...

Thaskalos

Your post is perfectly clear and absolutely correct.

This is not meant for you. I'll bow out now because people seem more interested in data on the fractions than understanding how...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-27-2018, 07:35 PM
Replies: 288
Views: 9,871
Posted By classhandicapper
When I eventually get around to looking at it,...

When I eventually get around to looking at it, I'll post the results. I haven't really defined what it is I want to know. Lately I've just seen a few off the turf races where I thought the pace was...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-27-2018, 07:23 PM
Replies: 288
Views: 9,871
Posted By classhandicapper
I have a database with pre-calculated running...

I have a database with pre-calculated running styles for every horse in every race at every major racetrack; a metric that looks at the running styles of each horse and calculates a pace pressure...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-27-2018, 01:39 PM
Replies: 288
Views: 9,871
Posted By classhandicapper
If you want to check something new, I have an...

If you want to check something new, I have an idea. This is a study I am eventually going to do, but I haven't had the time yet.

I want to check "off the turf" races.

What makes those...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-27-2018, 11:51 AM
Replies: 288
Views: 9,871
Posted By classhandicapper
You definitely have to break up dirt and turf...

You definitely have to break up dirt and turf because every study I have done indicates that small variations of pace from the average in turf races have way less of an impact on the result than...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-27-2018, 11:37 AM
Replies: 288
Views: 9,871
Posted By classhandicapper
Here's reality as I see it. 1. We have a...

Here's reality as I see it.

1. We have a theory on what should happen given a certain pace pattern.

2. We have data that suggests "on average" certain things do happen given that pattern
...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-27-2018, 09:57 AM
Replies: 288
Views: 9,871
Posted By classhandicapper
What you are posting is excellent. I...

What you are posting is excellent.

I suspect he was being sarcastic in that he didn't find my post very useful because I didn't provide the data, just the general findings and conclusions.
Showing results 1 to 25 of 500

 
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