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Search took 0.12 seconds. Search: Posts Made By: Aerocraft67
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** Yesterday, 08:09 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 458
Posted By Aerocraft67
Trying not to watch the odds much because they've...

Trying not to watch the odds much because they've moved around a lot. There's nearly half a million in the win pool now, but Dornach is still fifth choice after taking some big action today....
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** Yesterday, 08:03 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 1,072
Posted By Aerocraft67
I like 'ol Rod as much as the next guy, but it'll...

I like 'ol Rod as much as the next guy, but it'll be a relief when this horse goes back home and I don't have the song ringing in my head every time I open the PPs.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** Yesterday, 07:08 AM
Replies: 50
Views: 2,591
Posted By Aerocraft67
On the DRF webinar, sounded like Beyer was...

On the DRF webinar, sounded like Beyer was standing by Fierceness's figures on principle.

He also said he doesn't want any horse that hasn't run a fig in the high 90s. Although Just a Touch is...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-30-2024, 06:53 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 796
Posted By Aerocraft67
With about $75k in the win pool, Sierra Leone is...

With about $75k in the win pool, Sierra Leone is steadily 7/2. Fierceness is the same price at the moment, but he's dipped to 3-1 previously. I figure that's about where they wind up.

If he's your...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-30-2024, 05:26 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 796
Posted By Aerocraft67
You got your wish. But it aggravates the...

You got your wish. But it aggravates the contention that late pace gets overbet.

I guess you accept the inevitably low odds on a legitimate win contender and hope others take enough money to make...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-30-2024, 03:05 PM
Replies: 7
Views: 317
Posted By Aerocraft67
You have to figure he adds some pace. To the...

You have to figure he adds some pace. To the outside of Fierceness, adding more peril to his prospects. Amplifies the already elevated interest in closers. And sends Bisket back to the PPs to find...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-30-2024, 10:45 AM
Replies: 19
Views: 796
Posted By Aerocraft67
I covered this in the other thread...

I covered this in the other thread (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=2942417&postcount=6), but you really don't have certified closers outside of :2::4::7:. Which attracts them more...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-30-2024, 10:30 AM
Replies: 5
Views: 370
Posted By Aerocraft67
Agreed. The pace will be fast by...

Agreed.



The pace will be fast by virtue of field size and at least two that want the lead, two more that run early, and maybe others that uncharacteristically send and hope. But it's not like...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-30-2024, 08:11 AM
Replies: 5
Views: 370
Posted By Aerocraft67
Now that you said that out loud, I'll add that...

Now that you said that out loud, I'll add that I've seen better here on PA for sure. I was going to say, "that's as bold as it gets" about the downgrades of Fierceness and Just a Touch.

Then...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-29-2024, 07:01 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 896
Posted By Aerocraft67
How does Track Phantom endure the pace? Even if...

How does Track Phantom endure the pace? Even if he doesn't need the lead, can he win the race of a lifetime rating, in blinkers, for the first time?

Stronghold won his last two fair and square,...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-29-2024, 06:41 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 370
Posted By Aerocraft67
The ranking downgrades Fierceness to fourth, and...

The ranking downgrades Fierceness to fourth, and Just a Touch to 10th, behind five 20-1s. They're otherwise in morning line order (except Society Man, nudged to non-factor 16th from no-chance 18th). ...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-29-2024, 10:01 AM
Replies: 50
Views: 2,591
Posted By Aerocraft67
I may try to beat the favorite in the exacta, and...

I may try to beat the favorite in the exacta, and use him as a saver in the trifecta.

Worst case, earn an unspectacular payoff with the other chalk in the exacta, but take all the favorite's...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-28-2024, 11:18 PM
Replies: 7
Views: 395
Posted By Aerocraft67
Pick of the 20-1 litter: Just Steel

Earned a big TFUS fig placing behind Muth in the Arkansas Derby. Track assigned a closing bias, which flatters his early placement. Not many saw past his muddied form at 32-1.

After winning the...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-28-2024, 10:14 PM
Replies: 51
Views: 3,797
Posted By Aerocraft67
I do like Encino among the 20-1 tier, but I think...

I do like Encino among the 20-1 tier, but I think I like Just Steel a little more. Stronghold is worth a look, but I can do without the rest.

The Lexington came up speed-biased in TFUS. Encino won...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-28-2024, 09:35 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 785
Posted By Aerocraft67
Wow, that is a tossup. Gave the edge to :12:...

Wow, that is a tossup. Gave the edge to :12: Track Phantom for the superior post, early speed edge, and maybe a class edge.

Probably won't be using them. They're not hard tosses like the...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-28-2024, 09:23 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 600
Posted By Aerocraft67
I upgraded him once I saw the TFUS fig for the...

I upgraded him once I saw the TFUS fig for the Blue Grass, which is higher than the winner's, and among the highest in the field.

He's still a shade below the top two as a raw performance...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-28-2024, 10:14 AM
Replies: 12
Views: 430
Posted By Aerocraft67
I kind of like Catching Freedom as a casual pick...

I kind of like Catching Freedom as a casual pick for someone that doesn't follow racing to bet across the board. Legit shot that'll be coming late with a better payoff than the favorites.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-28-2024, 10:00 AM
Replies: 12
Views: 430
Posted By Aerocraft67
The Wood is almost a default place to check for a...

The Wood is almost a default place to check for a contrarian play. Hit Show ran 5th last year. The New York public handicappers were on him. That said, he and Lord Miles haven't done much beyond that.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-27-2024, 03:24 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 430
Posted By Aerocraft67
Rounding out the fave-hi-five: Catching Freedom & Just a Touch

Catching Freedom looks a little like Sierra Leone at a better price. That one pinched him back to third near the end of the stretch to prevail in the sloppy Risen Star. But he only spots one top...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-27-2024, 08:52 AM
Replies: 17
Views: 1,072
Posted By Aerocraft67
Forever Young had a troubled start in the Saudi...

Forever Young had a troubled start in the Saudi Derby. He overcame that adversity, perhaps of his own making.

He took the Abdulaziz turn five wide, spotted rivals three lengths at the top of the...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-27-2024, 07:04 AM
Replies: 15
Views: 1,849
Posted By Aerocraft67
Bloodhorse highlights two runners that don't make...

Bloodhorse highlights two runners that don't make the 0:38 cutoff, Sierra Leone and Stronghold. My takeaways from those performances are very different. From the article:

"Sierra Leone unleashed...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-25-2024, 04:15 PM
Replies: 50
Views: 2,591
Posted By Aerocraft67
This was indeed my initial thinking. Or some kind...

This was indeed my initial thinking. Or some kind of "saver" usage.



This aligns with my subsequent (over) thinking. Maybe both "win" and "out of the money" scenarios get overbet, rendering the...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-25-2024, 07:33 AM
Replies: 50
Views: 2,591
Posted By Aerocraft67
Can you fade Fierceness?

Fair to draw a line though the sloppy & sealed Champagne. But hard to forgive the Derby favorite for the Holy Bull. How valid was his excuse?

He won the Florida Derby going away, geared down,...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-24-2024, 09:17 AM
Replies: 33
Views: 2,333
Posted By Aerocraft67
Seems reasonable to project a substantial speed...

Seems reasonable to project a substantial speed improvement given all the other things to like.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-24-2024, 09:10 AM
Replies: 17
Views: 1,072
Posted By Aerocraft67
I wonder if there's any net bias for or against...

I wonder if there's any net bias for or against Japanese Derby entrants. Do bettors shy away from a foreign path to the Derby? Or do they generously include a lesser-known novelty? Probably nets out...
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