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Search: Posts Made By: RonTiller
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-15-2022, 11:25 AM
Replies: 28
Views: 2,383
Posted By RonTiller
1. As with Equibase, Belmont At The Big A and...

1. As with Equibase, Belmont At The Big A and Aqueduct meet statistics are combined for calculating at-the-track statistics and previous meet statistics.

2. As with Equibase, all track records set...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 04-20-2022, 12:06 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 462
Posted By RonTiller
Jeff, As somebody who has been thinking...

Jeff,

As somebody who has been thinking about this whole issue for a long time, maybe you can discuss some of the possible implications of this new technology (beyond the obvious that horse lives...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-20-2021, 11:23 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 1,560
Posted By RonTiller
This is for races where original finish position...

This is for races where original finish position = 1 and official finish position > 1 and there is no win payoff for that horse. This last condition separates off horses who were subsequently DQ'd...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-16-2020, 03:01 PM
Replies: 219
Views: 110,063
Posted By RonTiller
A speed ratings study was done in I believe...

A speed ratings study was done in I believe 1998-1999, proposed and managed by Jim Bayle. Jim Bayle produced a regular horse racing report for his company SportStat and was an obvious person to...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-10-2020, 12:39 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 1,046
Posted By RonTiller
Steady decline in percentage wearing front warps...

Steady decline in percentage wearing front warps since 1995:

1995... 24.4%
2005... 23.4%
2010....21.4%
2019....19.7%

Ron Tiller
HDW
Forum: General Racing Discussion 07-06-2020, 04:48 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 2,649
Posted By RonTiller
I've seen some pretty sophisticated analyses from...

I've seen some pretty sophisticated analyses from somebody using At The Races by Gary Pizzigati. This programmer did not want to reinvent the wheel when it came to downloading, parsing and futzing...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 06-23-2020, 02:24 PM
Replies: 80
Views: 10,087
Posted By RonTiller
This data is not from HTR. HDW provides the data...

This data is not from HTR. HDW provides the data files for HTR and is a Value Added Reseller of Equibase data.

The statistics are for the morning line favorite in each race, i.e. the horse in...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 06-15-2020, 03:57 PM
Replies: 80
Views: 10,087
Posted By RonTiller
These are the tracks with the worst performing...

These are the tracks with the worst performing morning line, based solely on the number of MLO favorites that become tote favorites. Some of these tracks might perform better based on other metrics....
Forum: General Racing Discussion 06-14-2020, 01:02 PM
Replies: 80
Views: 10,087
Posted By RonTiller
Hey Dave, I don't know if you are referring to...

Hey Dave, I don't know if you are referring to Jim Cramer but Jim has said that many times re first time starters. It drove him nuts.

Ron Tiller
HDW
Forum: General Racing Discussion 06-14-2020, 12:59 PM
Replies: 80
Views: 10,087
Posted By RonTiller
I just did a quick down and dirty query comparing...

I just did a quick down and dirty query comparing MLO favorite versus actual tote board favorite. A quick check of yesterday's cards validated the data is correct.

Data is for Jan 1 2019 through...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-24-2020, 08:12 PM
Replies: 8
Views: 1,644
Posted By RonTiller
The DRF SR & TV you are referring to are just the...

The DRF SR & TV you are referring to are just the 3 year best based speed rating and track variant. The calculation is not complicated nor subject to subjective judgements. The period of the 3...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 01-09-2019, 12:30 PM
Replies: 95
Views: 13,399
Posted By RonTiller
Exactly. It can be a real thing of beauty to see...

Exactly. It can be a real thing of beauty to see these complicated handicapping/betting infrastructures at work. There are certainly contributors to PaceAdvantage who do something along the lines...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 01-08-2019, 12:37 PM
Replies: 95
Views: 13,399
Posted By RonTiller
What is REAL Handicapping and So what?

Who is "really" handicapping? What is "really" handicapping? And does it really even matter? I didn't want to contribute to thread creep in the Is a Positive ROI Attainable... thread so I started...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 07-06-2018, 01:13 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 1,468
Posted By RonTiller
There is not one race type called optional...

There is not one race type called optional claiming. There are several race types in the optional claiming family:

Allowance Optional Claiming - Race conditions are written as an allowance race...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-23-2017, 01:32 PM
Replies: 100
Views: 24,051
Posted By RonTiller
Just got around to reading this thread. ...

Just got around to reading this thread.




Ellis is partly correct - Jim Bayle initiated and oversaw a speed ratings study in 1999 (or 2000?). HDW was a part of the study, supplying Jim...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-25-2017, 10:44 AM
Replies: 40
Views: 8,263
Posted By RonTiller
Thaskalos, We apologize for the missing Pace...

Thaskalos,

We apologize for the missing Pace Numbers. We had a few simultaneous computer mishaps and we are working to restore everything back to normal. It has ended up being more work than...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-08-2017, 11:22 AM
Replies: 54
Views: 4,542
Posted By RonTiller
Jim Cramer does not use pars in his speed...

Jim Cramer does not use pars in his speed ratings, either for variants or track to track.

In the mid 90s, when we were relatively new in the business, we put a 3 year best speed rating in our...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-23-2016, 03:03 PM
Replies: 1
Views: 1,015
Posted By RonTiller
HTR Web Site down

I hope this is not deemed inappropriate by the moderators but I'll certainly understand if it is.

There was a question directed to me on another thread about the HTR web site being down.

There...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 12-23-2016, 11:40 AM
Replies: 0
Views: 540
Posted By RonTiller
A Christmas Poem

I wrote this probably 10 years ago and posted it on the HTR BBS. I thought it was time to dust it off again. My apologies to Clement Clarke Moore, Henry Livingston Jr. or whoever wrote the original...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 12-22-2016, 02:22 PM
Replies: 67
Views: 4,290
Posted By RonTiller
A few more of my favorite things (besides...

A few more of my favorite things (besides raindrops on roses):

1. Standing outside at the finish line when the horses come roaring by like a freight train, blowing up a gust of wind and noise.
...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 12-22-2016, 11:41 AM
Replies: 67
Views: 4,290
Posted By RonTiller
What's GOOD about horse racing?

It's not hard to find critical commentary on the state of horse racing these days, especially on Pace Advantage: incompetent trainers, crooked jockeys, short-sighted industry executives, the new BRIS...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-17-2016, 06:17 PM
Replies: 20
Views: 3,995
Posted By RonTiller
I too wish for success for Equibase's new...

I too wish for success for Equibase's new RaceLens product. There is no question that it is a really nice product. Frankly, any product that is professionally done and advances this industry is a...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-01-2016, 12:03 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 1,824
Posted By RonTiller
1. Adena Springs - Kentucky, Florida, Ontario -...

1. Adena Springs - Kentucky, Florida, Ontario - Eclipse and Sovereign Award winning Breeder

2. Stronach Stables - Eclipse and Sovereign Award winning Owner

3. AmTote International - One of the...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 03-22-2016, 02:39 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 1,269
Posted By RonTiller
We can publish whatever statistical time period...

We can publish whatever statistical time period for which we have Equibase data. The developers HDW works with want a different mish mash of statistics for various time periods so we make statistics...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 01-07-2016, 11:35 AM
Replies: 22
Views: 3,508
Posted By RonTiller
FYI: the Belmont workout for Black Tie on Dec...

FYI: the Belmont workout for Black Tie on Dec 19th is now gone. I do not know if that Belmont workout got assigned to another (the correct?) horse - I'm guessing not, since it is several weeks after...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 246

 
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