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Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-18-2010, 04:11 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 928
Posted By markgoldie
Well, it's pretty simple to respond to your...

Well, it's pretty simple to respond to your questions. Yes, you should stick to the maiden sprints. Why would you want to bet into negative situations?

And yes, the best players restrict their...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-15-2010, 12:19 PM
Replies: 29
Views: 3,287
Posted By markgoldie
Reminds me of the story of the outspoken jockey...

Reminds me of the story of the outspoken jockey great of the past, Willie Hartack.

Seems one day Hartack is riding a horse that the trainer is very enthusiastic about. He tells Hartack how the...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-14-2010, 12:08 PM
Replies: 29
Views: 3,287
Posted By markgoldie
Hopefully, you'd like the horse positioned in the...

Hopefully, you'd like the horse positioned in the area with the highest impact value for producing winners at the track/surface/distance.

That being said, I don't think that unless you are an...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-05-2010, 11:55 AM
Replies: 33
Views: 2,403
Posted By markgoldie
Harness racing has been mostly a night-time sport...

Harness racing has been mostly a night-time sport forever and the handles are down, I would imagine, reasonably comparably to thoroughbred racing. Therefore, I don't believe that simply shifting the...
Forum: Off Topic - Sports 09-26-2010, 01:01 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 1,159
Posted By markgoldie
Week 3: Pitt -2.5 Houston -2.5 ...

Week 3:

Pitt -2.5

Houston -2.5

SF -3

Wash -5
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-26-2010, 12:58 PM
Replies: 76
Views: 16,486
Posted By markgoldie
Think you may have me mixed up with someone else...

Think you may have me mixed up with someone else when it comes to the ALL button. I don't believe in it because ticket-structure effieiency is little-understood, but absolutely crucial for long-term...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-26-2010, 12:20 PM
Replies: 76
Views: 16,486
Posted By markgoldie
I think if you undertake an exhaustive study that...

I think if you undertake an exhaustive study that you'll find this strategy does not work. Why? Because there are few scenarios that pull win bettors into the exacta pool as much as the one you are...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-24-2010, 05:20 PM
Replies: 76
Views: 16,486
Posted By markgoldie
A couple of comments about this discussion. ...

A couple of comments about this discussion.

First, exacta overlay charts. They are essentially useless. Why? Because the determination as to whether an exacta is an overlay or not is based on...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-24-2010, 11:40 AM
Replies: 182
Views: 32,951
Posted By markgoldie
Good point. I actually meant market it, because...

Good point. I actually meant market it, because that's what Dave will no doubt do.
Forum: Harness Racing 09-24-2010, 11:34 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 868
Posted By markgoldie
Was she bred to Good Time to produce a horse...

Was she bred to Good Time to produce a horse named Ricci Reenie Time??

And, yeah, whatever happened to the good old days when $2.70 was a short price??
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-24-2010, 11:28 AM
Replies: 182
Views: 32,951
Posted By markgoldie
I have looked at form-cycle considerations for...

I have looked at form-cycle considerations for years in the hope that such a handicapping angle would produce consistent profits. But frankly, I have never found anything that I could call...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-19-2010, 10:13 AM
Replies: 8
Views: 1,502
Posted By markgoldie
Stuff like this has been going on and off for...

Stuff like this has been going on and off for ages. But bookies aren't dumb. They'll fugure it out sooner rather than later and either cut the max wager accepted way down or will cut off the client...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-16-2010, 08:26 PM
Replies: 49
Views: 6,607
Posted By markgoldie
What you needed was a partner/financier during...

What you needed was a partner/financier during the halcyon days. He would have provided the sufficient capital to maximize the profits from your selections and you would provide the picks. This...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-16-2010, 10:12 AM
Replies: 76
Views: 11,277
Posted By markgoldie
I run into this problem all the time because I...

I run into this problem all the time because I advise a friend on claiming horses and often there is a great deal of money at stake.

It's almost like a "chicken or egg" problem. There are many...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-16-2010, 09:42 AM
Replies: 49
Views: 6,607
Posted By markgoldie
Bob: Understand what you are saying, but...

Bob:

Understand what you are saying, but doesn't this hold for the handicapper who gives out the picks as well? For example, if you sell your picks for X dollars, it stands to reason that each...
Forum: Harness Racing 09-14-2010, 04:56 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 835
Posted By markgoldie
Latest info given today on the MRN is that he...

Latest info given today on the MRN is that he hopes to be back driving in late October.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-14-2010, 12:22 PM
Replies: 76
Views: 11,277
Posted By markgoldie
I think we may be saying essentially the same...

I think we may be saying essentially the same thing. Since between-call speed is largely unidentifiable, the question of when class trumps speed is important to consider. In my view, it is most...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-14-2010, 09:23 AM
Replies: 76
Views: 11,277
Posted By markgoldie
The scenario you describe may be a bit unusual. ...

The scenario you describe may be a bit unusual. I can tell you this, using Brisnet SPD. and RR. (class) ratings, a 1 pt. jump in class rating will result in an average 2-3 point lowering in SPD....
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-13-2010, 04:58 PM
Replies: 76
Views: 11,277
Posted By markgoldie
Not trainer intent, but "hidden" internal...

Not trainer intent, but "hidden" internal fractions. Higher-class horses can start and stop during a race. Take a first quarter for example. A cheap front runner might be able to run the first...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-12-2010, 12:16 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 1,172
Posted By markgoldie
Over the years, many harness tracks have adopted...

Over the years, many harness tracks have adopted such policies. If the horse seems incapable of beating any class on the grounds, the race secretary effectively bars the horse from racing at his...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-10-2010, 11:53 AM
Replies: 69
Views: 6,881
Posted By markgoldie
A 90% win rate over any sort of reasonable sample...

A 90% win rate over any sort of reasonable sample is totally, completely, and utterly impossible with a 100% degree of certainty. Anyone making such a statement should be given the amount of...
Forum: Harness Racing 09-09-2010, 11:18 AM
Replies: 3
Views: 922
Posted By markgoldie
Good idea and there might be some initial...

Good idea and there might be some initial enthusiasm for it. However, I think the idea would find few takers after they began to realize that the value of a winning ticket was closely tied to the...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-07-2010, 11:13 AM
Replies: 23
Views: 3,630
Posted By markgoldie
This is a beautiful piece of work and it...

This is a beautiful piece of work and it certainly answers a good deal of what the original poster was asking.

But now for the "over-the-top-none-of-your-business" question (which I am compelled...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-05-2010, 09:29 PM
Replies: 121
Views: 14,927
Posted By markgoldie
Well, the difference might be in who has the...

Well, the difference might be in who has the larger data base when it comes to a proven win percentage over time. I can see where his approach leads to a very much simpler method of determining...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-05-2010, 01:16 PM
Replies: 121
Views: 14,927
Posted By markgoldie
Excellent point. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: You are...

Excellent point. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

You are trapped by the races that are designated as part of the gimmick.
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