Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board
>
Search Forums
Search Results
User Name
Remember Me?
Password
Home
Register
FAQ
Donate
Roster
Calendar
Forum
Today's Posts
Search
Search Forums
Show Threads
Show Posts
Tag Search
Advanced Search
Go to Page...
Page 1 of 20
1
2
3
11
>
Last
»
Showing results 1 to 25 of 500
Search took
0.22
seconds.
Search:
Posts Made By:
sjk
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
03-24-2024, 08:15 AM
Replies:
1
Comparative Strike-Rates of First-Call Leaders
Views:
578
Posted By
sjk
TRACK win pct POST CountOfPOST MNR 31.22% 1 474...
TRACK win pct POST CountOfPOST
MNR 31.22% 1 474
MNR 31.85% 2 314
MNR 33.56% 3 289
MNR 33.73% 4 249
MNR 34.27% 5 248
MNR 35.93% 6 167
MNR 30.70% 7 114
MNR 34.09% 8 44
MNR 29.63% 9 27
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
03-12-2024, 01:21 PM
Replies:
90
Full 2023 Dataset available at no charge
Views:
8,545
Posted By
sjk
Hard to say whether someone from a standing start...
Hard to say whether someone from a standing start would have a good chance to catch and beat the CAW teams. It would be a daunting task unlike 30 years ago when getting something out of the data was...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
01-13-2024, 12:59 PM
Replies:
49
Questions about Laurel
Views:
5,242
Posted By
sjk
Some of the last minute price drops have been...
Some of the last minute price drops have been brutal lately.
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
12-25-2023, 04:27 PM
Replies:
118
MS Access as Handicapping Database
Views:
21,892
Posted By
sjk
Linear models are great at comparing the...
Linear models are great at comparing the attributes of the runners but they don't capture the pace dynamics.
I start by making a line using the various runners past races but after that part is...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
12-10-2023, 04:44 PM
Replies:
121
Crist and Beyer lay into NYRA and Stronach for having financial interests in CAW's
Views:
13,086
Posted By
sjk
Perhaps it was inevitable that in a day of short...
Perhaps it was inevitable that in a day of short fields and fast computers the pools would be so efficient that no one can make money.
Has anyone modeled out the decline of retail dollars whether...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
12-10-2023, 12:30 PM
Replies:
121
Crist and Beyer lay into NYRA and Stronach for having financial interests in CAW's
Views:
13,086
Posted By
sjk
Thanks for confirming that NYRA is above the...
Thanks for confirming that NYRA is above the sorts of things I suggested.
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
12-10-2023, 06:30 AM
Replies:
121
Crist and Beyer lay into NYRA and Stronach for having financial interests in CAW's
Views:
13,086
Posted By
sjk
Perhaps the tracks don't even need to pay for...
Perhaps the tracks don't even need to pay for their financial interest in the CAW teams. They can pay with information.
What sort of information would be considered unethical for the tracks to...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
12-09-2023, 05:25 AM
Replies:
121
Crist and Beyer lay into NYRA and Stronach for having financial interests in CAW's
Views:
13,086
Posted By
sjk
Makes me wonder again about the information that...
Makes me wonder again about the information that is not displayed to the public (blind pools) but which must be known to the racetracks if not in real time then after the fact to empower AI analysis....
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
11-18-2023, 05:21 AM
Replies:
35
You are limited to playing only 2 tracks...
Views:
4,819
Posted By
sjk
I was just looking at my results by track over...
I was just looking at my results by track over the past year or so yesterday. I have played GP sparingly and tapeta not at all for quite a while but I have thrown away more money than I should have...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
10-20-2023, 07:04 AM
Replies:
9
Speed handicapping - a mystery
Views:
1,686
Posted By
sjk
It is the computer assisted guys doing the same...
It is the computer assisted guys doing the same thing we are doing but better that are taking the money.
Of course taxes are never much fun either.
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
10-20-2023, 06:05 AM
Replies:
9
Speed handicapping - a mystery
Views:
1,686
Posted By
sjk
No need for me to play make believe games that...
No need for me to play make believe games that last 1000 years. I have 30 years of history betting real money (70,000 races). I am pleased with my ability to make probabilities as I was discussing...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
10-20-2023, 04:46 AM
Replies:
9
Speed handicapping - a mystery
Views:
1,686
Posted By
sjk
I don't know Harvilles Law but I make probability...
I don't know Harvilles Law but I make probability curves based on projected speed figures and then do a calculation of the likelihood of each horse winning based on the naive assumption that the...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
10-11-2023, 04:05 PM
Replies:
43
The Face Value of Ratings
Views:
4,360
Posted By
sjk
I have had good luck making meaningful statistics...
I have had good luck making meaningful statistics out of this sort of thing. Each horse in a race has his own race shape and if you take a large sample of horses with that race shape you can...
Forum:
Handicapping Software
10-11-2023, 06:23 AM
Replies:
17
Importing or creating a template
Views:
2,304
Posted By
sjk
I parsed charts for 10 years or so when they were...
I parsed charts for 10 years or so when they were text. When they changed to pdf I had no idea how to parse them and always figured that it would be hard to distinguish 1-11 from 11-1 even if I...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
10-06-2023, 03:51 PM
Replies:
1,076
Sticky:
Fractional Time Errors
Views:
320,778
Posted By
sjk
Even that seems a bit fast. The timer stopped...
Even that seems a bit fast. The timer stopped when they got to the 1/16 pole and it must have taken 6-7 seconds to get to the wire.
Does he get to keep the track record?
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
10-05-2023, 01:18 PM
Replies:
19
Are you a long term winner
Views:
1,878
Posted By
sjk
My long-term return is 14.4% but it has been in a...
My long-term return is 14.4% but it has been in a long slide downward over 20+ years. I have no confidence at all that I will win going forward even though 2023 has been a profitable year. I bet a...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
10-04-2023, 03:46 PM
Replies:
56
Which authors molded your handicapping?
Views:
6,335
Posted By
sjk
Beyer Brohammer
Beyer
Brohammer
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
10-04-2023, 06:23 AM
Replies:
50
Can you quickly describe how you handicap?
Views:
7,635
Posted By
sjk
Black box program. Computer does it all.
Black box program. Computer does it all.
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
09-25-2023, 02:18 PM
Replies:
118
MS Access as Handicapping Database
Views:
21,892
Posted By
sjk
What I would try: I imagine you are trying...
What I would try:
I imagine you are trying to estimate the speed rating next out so I would do regression where that is the dependent variable and you are trying to find the alpha to best fit with...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
09-24-2023, 01:42 PM
Replies:
118
MS Access as Handicapping Database
Views:
21,892
Posted By
sjk
I would think you would try it with one variable...
I would think you would try it with one variable first and then see if the second one adds value. Find the value of a length that best fits your predictions and then keep that value as you see if...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
09-23-2023, 03:46 PM
Replies:
46
Churchill Downs. Are you listening? Tapeta!
Views:
3,802
Posted By
sjk
Racing has not shown itself to be very good at...
Racing has not shown itself to be very good at attracting new players so you might want to look at it from the point of view of the ones they have who have bet many races through the years and what...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
09-08-2023, 12:17 PM
Replies:
300
"Fed Up With the CAWs..."
Views:
30,322
Posted By
sjk
There is a copy data button that puts the odds...
There is a copy data button that puts the odds and exacta matrix on your clipboard. Then you paste it to a spreadsheet where it knows how to parse the format.
I use an Access program to determine...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
09-07-2023, 03:18 PM
Replies:
65
Betting on all horses in a race? Nay or yay?
Views:
6,993
Posted By
sjk
Where the favorite is >=2-1 the results are...
Where the favorite is >=2-1 the results are better in the sense that -22% is better than -26%. Probably none of the above is the way to go.
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
09-07-2023, 01:32 PM
Replies:
300
"Fed Up With the CAWs..."
Views:
30,322
Posted By
sjk
Yes. Been doing it the same way for about 20...
Yes. Been doing it the same way for about 20 years.
Amwager makes it easy to do.
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
09-07-2023, 09:33 AM
Replies:
65
Betting on all horses in a race? Nay or yay?
Views:
6,993
Posted By
sjk
I ran the stats for fun and of course this is an...
I ran the stats for fun and of course this is an enormous loser everywhere else but you would be money ahead if you had bet GP tapeta this way from inception.
lol
Showing results 1 to 25 of 500
Page 1 of 20
1
2
3
11
>
Last
»
Forum Jump
User Control Panel
Private Messages
Subscriptions
Who's Online
Search Forums
Forums Home
Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion
General Handicapping Discussion
Interviews
General Racing Discussion
Handicapper's Corner
**TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL**
Handicapping Software
HandiFast Handicapping Software
Advance Deposit Wagering (ADW)
Handicapping Library
Horseplayers Association of North America (H.A.N.A.)
Selections
Contests + Other Interesting Racing Topics
Harness Racing
Off-Site Handicapping Contests
Off Topic
Off Topic - General
Off Topic - Sports
Off Topic - Computers
Off Topic - Trading The Financial Markets
Off Topic - Poker
» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Which horse do you like most
Dornoch - 67.74%
Track Phantom - 32.26%
Total Votes: 62
This poll is closed.
»
View Poll Results
»
Comment On This Poll
»
This Poll Has 17 Replies
Powered by
vBadvanced
CMPS v3.2.3
All times are GMT -4. The time now is
05:40 AM
.
-- Default 2017
---- Reduced Width
------ Full Screen
PaceAdvantage.com
-
Archive
-
Privacy Statement
-
Terms of Service
-
Top
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.