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Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-02-2021, 04:09 PM
Replies: 79
Views: 9,782
Posted By formula_2002
Its only complicated the first time its...

Its only complicated the first time its programed.:coffee:

if you sum 1/(odds+1) for an entire race (the booking percentage) and adjust the odds accordingly, you will find that a horse listed at...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-02-2021, 11:18 AM
Replies: 79
Views: 9,782
Posted By formula_2002
from my web page based on a 15% win pool take...

from my web page
based on a 15% win pool take out

THE PROBABILITY OF A HORSE WINNING IS (1/(ODDS+1))/ THE RACES TOTAL BOOK PERCENTAGE .
THE TOTAL BOOK PERCENTAGE FOR A TRACK WITH A 15% TAKE OUT...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-01-2021, 02:27 PM
Replies: 79
Views: 9,782
Posted By formula_2002
use the attached as a guide to exacta fair value...

use the attached as a guide to exacta fair value payout.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-01-2021, 11:15 AM
Replies: 79
Views: 9,782
Posted By formula_2002
let me add two additional thoughts if you...

let me add two additional thoughts

if you base your play on a formula that produces a Play value of 1, and it turns out to be a very big loser, great, then change your play to <>1

also is if...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-01-2021, 10:37 AM
Replies: 79
Views: 9,782
Posted By formula_2002
I've learned plenty. top thing to watch out for...

I've learned plenty. top thing to watch out for are the wps and exacta boards.
let the public do the handicapping. handicap the public.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-01-2021, 10:35 AM
Replies: 79
Views: 9,782
Posted By formula_2002
I dont think the "public" makes those choices any...

I dont think the "public" makes those choices any more "profitable" than other choices. if they did, I would have found it out:)
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 03-18-2021, 10:11 AM
Replies: 79
Views: 9,782
Posted By formula_2002
UK Doncaster* Race 2 KEY TO THE MINT...

UK Doncaster* Race 2 KEY TO THE MINT EXACTA PLAYS - PLAY THE BET SIZES picks >>>> 3 1 2 probability 55%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 0...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 03-17-2021, 06:04 PM
Replies: 79
Views: 9,782
Posted By formula_2002
7/3 wins

7/3 wins
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 03-17-2021, 05:57 PM
Replies: 79
Views: 9,782
Posted By formula_2002
Turf Paradise* Race 4 ...

Turf Paradise* Race 4

2 8
un un ov 0v
8 0 82 0 82
2 65 0 65 0
4 35 18 35 18
1 0 0 0 0
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 03-16-2021, 02:35 PM
Replies: 79
Views: 9,782
Posted By formula_2002
9/1 exacta wins

9/1 exacta wins
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 03-16-2021, 02:32 PM
Replies: 79
Views: 9,782
Posted By formula_2002
Mahoning Valley* Race 5 KEY TO THE MINT...

Mahoning Valley* Race 5 KEY TO THE MINT EXACTA PLAYS - PLAY THE BET SIZES picks >>>> 9 10 2 probability 63%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 0...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 03-12-2021, 12:16 PM
Replies: 79
Views: 9,782
Posted By formula_2002
I'm not betting. If I can become very...

I'm not betting. If I can become very comfortable with the plays, and perhaps actually bet, I would have to consider the point you make about impacting the pool. I'm sure I can work that out, it's...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 03-12-2021, 11:10 AM
Replies: 79
Views: 9,782
Posted By formula_2002
It all about tote board win, place, show and...

It all about tote board win, place, show and exacta $$$.
I'm handicapping the public, not the horses.
as long as these pools remain separate there is a opportunity for an edge over the takeout.
...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 03-10-2021, 01:05 PM
Replies: 79
Views: 9,782
Posted By formula_2002
the 4/1 exacta won $1 track exacta payout was...

the 4/1 exacta won $1 track exacta payout was $75.5

the total matrix bet size was $297 it returned $755.00

the col 1 and 4 bet size totaled $200, the column 1 and 4 returned $0.00

total play...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 03-10-2021, 12:20 PM
Replies: 79
Views: 9,782
Posted By formula_2002
UK Kempton Park* Race 3 KEY TO THE MINT...

UK Kempton Park* Race 3 KEY TO THE MINT EXACTA PLAYS - PLAY THE BET SIZES picks >>>> 2 12 1 probability 74%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 0 37...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 03-10-2021, 12:00 PM
Replies: 79
Views: 9,782
Posted By formula_2002
the 9/10 exacta won $1 track exacta payout was...

the 9/10 exacta won $1 track exacta payout was $19.90

the total matrix bet size was $206 it returned $219

the col 1 and 4 bet size totaled $200, the column 1 and 4 returned $0.00

total play...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 03-10-2021, 11:31 AM
Replies: 79
Views: 9,782
Posted By formula_2002
UK Lingfield Park* Race 7 KEY TO THE...

UK Lingfield Park* Race 7 KEY TO THE MINT EXACTA PLAYS - PLAY THE BET SIZES picks >>>> 9 1 6 probability 74%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 0...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 03-09-2021, 10:22 AM
Replies: 79
Views: 9,782
Posted By formula_2002
the 7/1 exacta won $1 track exacta payout was...

the 7/1 exacta won $1 track exacta payout was $20.60

the total matrix bet size was $299 it returned $803

the col 1 and 4 bet size totaled $200, the column 1 returned $344

total play was...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 03-09-2021, 08:44 AM
Replies: 79
Views: 9,782
Posted By formula_2002
UK Newcastle* Race 1 KEY TO THE MINT...

UK Newcastle* Race 1 KEY TO THE MINT EXACTA PLAYS - PLAY THE BET SIZES picks >>>> 1 12 7 probability 72%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 0...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 03-08-2021, 07:25 PM
Replies: 79
Views: 9,782
Posted By formula_2002
Always looking for an edge here is the play. ...

Always looking for an edge
here is the play.
when the total matrix play >=$200
play matrix row and column for the selected horse combinations AND play columns 1 and 4 for the column play.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 03-08-2021, 03:08 PM
Replies: 79
Views: 9,782
Posted By formula_2002
correction normalized to $0.87

correction
normalized to $0.87
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 03-08-2021, 09:16 AM
Replies: 79
Views: 9,782
Posted By formula_2002
yesterdays results 11 column plays $2200 bet,...

yesterdays results
11 column plays $2200 bet, $1580 returned

6 matrix plays $188 bet, $316 returned

1580/2200 = $1 return of $0.79
316/188 =$1 return of $ 1.68

when all plays are...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 03-08-2021, 09:06 AM
Replies: 79
Views: 9,782
Posted By formula_2002
correction

correction
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 03-07-2021, 10:59 PM
Replies: 79
Views: 9,782
Posted By formula_2002
Remington Park* Race 10 KEY TO THE MINT...

Remington Park* Race 10 KEY TO THE MINT EXACTA PLAYS - PLAY THE BET SIZES
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 03-07-2021, 10:51 PM
Replies: 79
Views: 9,782
Posted By formula_2002
1 2 3 4 5 1 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ...

1 2 3 4 5
1 ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
2 ---- ---- ---- ---- 11
3 ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Showing results 1 to 25 of 69

 
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