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Search took 0.02 seconds. Search: Posts Made By: highnote
Forum: Off Topic - Trading The Financial Markets 08-06-2019, 06:55 PM
Replies: 4,692
Views: 646,121
Posted By highnote
Saratoga Mike wrote: "For Sept, there's a 42%...

Saratoga Mike wrote: "For Sept, there's a 42% chance of a 50 bps cut and a 58% chance of 25 bps (so 100% chance of a cut)."

I interpreted this to mean that there is a 100% chance of a cut where,
...
Forum: Off Topic - Trading The Financial Markets 08-06-2019, 01:49 PM
Replies: 4,692
Views: 646,121
Posted By highnote
Here is a summary of the blog piece I wrote...

Here is a summary of the blog piece I wrote yesterday about whether to buy, sell, or stand pat after the big selloff on Monday, August 5, 2019:
...
Forum: Off Topic - Trading The Financial Markets 08-06-2019, 02:20 AM
Replies: 4,692
Views: 646,121
Posted By highnote
Anybody have a prediction on which stocks or...

Anybody have a prediction on which stocks or other asset classes will be most likely to go up in this current market environment?

According to Ray Dalio there are four factors that move the price...
Forum: Off Topic - Trading The Financial Markets 08-05-2019, 04:24 PM
Replies: 4,692
Views: 646,121
Posted By highnote
Prime rate is 5.25 Bill Ziemba and I...

Prime rate is 5.25

Bill Ziemba and I co-wrote this paper on using Zweig today:

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21649502.2015.1165917

It has served me well.
Forum: Off Topic - Trading The Financial Markets 08-05-2019, 04:21 PM
Replies: 4,692
Views: 646,121
Posted By highnote
There is an old saying that low interest rates...

There is an old saying that low interest rates have long tails. So I expect them to stay low for the next couple of years.
Forum: Off Topic - Trading The Financial Markets 08-05-2019, 04:06 PM
Replies: 4,692
Views: 646,121
Posted By highnote
A 50 point cut would send a very interesting...

A 50 point cut would send a very interesting signal. Right now rates are around 5.25%. Historically, that is not all that low. Back in the early 60s my grandfather shopped around for a loan. He...
Forum: Off Topic - Trading The Financial Markets 08-05-2019, 03:29 PM
Replies: 4,692
Views: 646,121
Posted By highnote
I read or heard the bond or futures market was...

I read or heard the bond or futures market was pricing in a 90% likelihood of lower rates. I forget how many basis points. But the point is rates are probably going lower. Bad for savers. Good for...
Forum: Off Topic - Trading The Financial Markets 08-05-2019, 03:01 PM
Replies: 4,692
Views: 646,121
Posted By highnote
This is good. The market hit all time highs...

This is good. The market hit all time highs recently. A pull back should make for some buying opportunities.

My gold/silver mining stocks are up 5% today.

Ray Dalio gave good advice about...
Forum: Off Topic - Trading The Financial Markets 08-05-2019, 01:22 PM
Replies: 4,692
Views: 646,121
Posted By highnote
Maybe. I assume he would buy a good value...

Maybe. I assume he would buy a good value regardless of the level of the sp
Forum: Off Topic - Trading The Financial Markets 08-05-2019, 01:14 PM
Replies: 4,692
Views: 646,121
Posted By highnote
The model I use has three monetary factors and...

The model I use has three monetary factors and one momentum factor plus I use a few more. The SP has fallen 4% from its peak which is negative momentum and is a sell signal. However, in this case it...
Forum: Off Topic - Trading The Financial Markets 08-05-2019, 12:39 PM
Replies: 4,692
Views: 646,121
Posted By highnote
Also the inverted yield curve is a concern. The...

Also the inverted yield curve is a concern. The rate cut actually caused it to become steeper. I doubt that was what the fed was hoping for.
Forum: Off Topic - Trading The Financial Markets 08-03-2019, 06:51 PM
Replies: 4,692
Views: 646,121
Posted By highnote
With the August 1st interest rate cut my model is...

With the August 1st interest rate cut my model is giving a BUY signal.

Monetary policy is favorable given low interest rates and reasonable consumer credit levels. Stock market momentum is...
Forum: Off Topic - Trading The Financial Markets 07-12-2019, 03:18 PM
Replies: 4,692
Views: 646,121
Posted By highnote
SP over 3,000 with interest rate cut on the...

SP over 3,000 with interest rate cut on the horizon.

Low interest rates came about because of fears of deflation and a depression following the 2009 financial crises. Next, low interest rates...
Forum: Off Topic - Trading The Financial Markets 07-06-2019, 12:26 AM
Replies: 4,692
Views: 646,121
Posted By highnote
Germany should let the capitalist market take...

Germany should let the capitalist market take over and run its course -- and not do what the U.S. did and apply socialism to the financial institutions that were on the verge of collapse.

There...
Forum: Off Topic - Trading The Financial Markets 06-28-2019, 04:18 PM
Replies: 4,692
Views: 646,121
Posted By highnote
The trend is your friend. It has been a good run...

The trend is your friend. It has been a good run over the past 7 months
Forum: Off Topic - Trading The Financial Markets 06-22-2019, 01:13 PM
Replies: 4,692
Views: 646,121
Posted By highnote
I predicted based on the indicators I use that...

I predicted based on the indicators I use that the SP500 would be at 2931 by June 15 -- a 15% rise over 6 months. It closed at a new high of 2954 on Thursday, June 20 -- up over 15% in the past 5...
Forum: Off Topic - Trading The Financial Markets 06-21-2019, 12:26 PM
Replies: 4,692
Views: 646,121
Posted By highnote
Also, the link to the study you sent about the 4%...

Also, the link to the study you sent about the 4% rule is applied to the SP500. The original 4% model was used on the Value Line Arithmetic Index. Zweig writes that if you want more trades use a 3%...
Forum: Off Topic - Trading The Financial Markets 06-21-2019, 12:06 PM
Replies: 4,692
Views: 646,121
Posted By highnote
I have wondered the same thing. I think he...

I have wondered the same thing. I think he probably is not.
Forum: Off Topic - Trading The Financial Markets 06-21-2019, 09:48 AM
Replies: 4,692
Views: 646,121
Posted By highnote
Thanks for the link to the study. I have not...

Thanks for the link to the study. I have not done one. I just use it, but not as a hard and fast rule. There have been times it has dipped below 4%, but I stood pat (the '87 crash for example. I...
Forum: Off Topic - Trading The Financial Markets 06-21-2019, 12:17 AM
Replies: 4,692
Views: 646,121
Posted By highnote
One reason the FED did Quantitative Easing on a...

One reason the FED did Quantitative Easing on a mass scale starting back around 2009 is because they were terrified of a great depression caused by extreme deflation. Money printing was supposed to...
Forum: Off Topic - Trading The Financial Markets 06-20-2019, 11:49 PM
Replies: 4,692
Views: 646,121
Posted By highnote
The Value Line index is slightly more volatile...

The Value Line index is slightly more volatile than the SP so a 4% move happens pretty often. Zweig wrote that 3% might be more appropriate for some investors. He also wrote of several other...
Forum: Off Topic - Trading The Financial Markets 06-20-2019, 03:23 PM
Replies: 4,692
Views: 646,121
Posted By highnote
Not sure if you're referring to someone's post...

Not sure if you're referring to someone's post about a particular stock or if you're posting about my post about stock market timing/momentum indicators.

In case you were referring to me, I want...
Forum: Off Topic - Trading The Financial Markets 06-10-2019, 11:37 AM
Replies: 4,692
Views: 646,121
Posted By highnote
BRK-B is still relatively cheap at 207. I may...

BRK-B is still relatively cheap at 207. I may buy some more of that. It's not likely to be a 10 banger, but it's probably a safe bet in a long-term retirement account.
Forum: Off Topic - Trading The Financial Markets 06-09-2019, 08:04 PM
Replies: 4,692
Views: 646,121
Posted By highnote
I picked up some OAKMX for my wife. Not sure what...

I picked up some OAKMX for my wife. Not sure what else to buy. I've been so busy with work that I haven't had time to look for stocks.
Forum: Off Topic - Trading The Financial Markets 06-07-2019, 02:29 PM
Replies: 4,692
Views: 646,121
Posted By highnote
VL at 6050. That's a buy signal. Now......

VL at 6050. That's a buy signal.

Now... what to buy?
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