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Search took 0.01 seconds. Search: Posts Made By: AltonKelsey
Forum: General Racing Discussion 05-02-2018, 05:44 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 95,614
Posted By AltonKelsey
"If we are looking to prove if past posting is...

"If we are looking to prove if past posting is going on we need to find odds drops that do not correlate with the closing odds of the double pools that closed about 30 minutes earlier. In other...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 05-02-2018, 04:29 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 95,614
Posted By AltonKelsey
Would rather see the pools and the flow to make a...

Would rather see the pools and the flow to make a accurate judgement, but the double paid 20.80 off an 8.60 winner, so 9/5 was likely too high. more like 1-1


My guess, price adjustment. As...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 04-10-2018, 02:20 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 95,614
Posted By AltonKelsey
Exactly my point. What is the point? I have...

Exactly my point. What is the point?

I have no idea what the complaint is here.

You realize you cant stop anyone form betting as much as they want on any horse, right?

Let's assume...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 04-10-2018, 01:43 AM
Replies: 738
Views: 95,614
Posted By AltonKelsey
It's very easy to get lost in the weeds on this. ...

It's very easy to get lost in the weeds on this. Exactly what is being objected to here. That the whales are betting at the last second and changing the odds?

Well apparently, everyone is...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 04-09-2018, 08:06 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 95,614
Posted By AltonKelsey
Ok, now I get it. The lower the payoff on...

Ok, now I get it. The lower the payoff on winners, the better it is for those betting them.

And all this time , I thought we were hunting for overlays.

So what we really want is to know...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 04-09-2018, 04:14 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 95,614
Posted By AltonKelsey
Anyone can set the end price (lower) by betting a...

Anyone can set the end price (lower) by betting a lot on whoever they like.

That's not an edge.

Unless you're manipulating the odds and betting somewhere else.

Think about it.


...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 04-09-2018, 03:40 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 95,614
Posted By AltonKelsey
I thought everyone knew that? (How much lower the...

I thought everyone knew that? (How much lower the price can go before edge is lost) Are we objecting to how smart they are, the rebate, or something else?

If we are objecting to the rebate, then...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 04-09-2018, 03:19 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 95,614
Posted By AltonKelsey
What exactly is the edge in knowing the horse is...

What exactly is the edge in knowing the horse is going to pay 7/2 and not 6-1 ?

I must be missing something

Oh yeah, they can NOT bet the horse at 7/2, but wait, they are the ones making it...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-24-2018, 12:52 AM
Replies: 738
Views: 95,614
Posted By AltonKelsey
Looks pretty simple, the actual amounts bet on...

Looks pretty simple, the actual amounts bet on the #1, as they are fed into the tote
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-21-2018, 08:10 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 95,614
Posted By AltonKelsey
Could be, I know I was born into the wrong...

Could be, I know I was born into the wrong family, no jockeys.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-21-2018, 04:47 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 95,614
Posted By AltonKelsey
I don't have the pp's for that , but the horse...

I don't have the pp's for that , but the horse was 15-1 on the ML , won last, and was ridden by an Ortiz.

Clearly , some serious steam there.

But plenty of those lose, just never get...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-17-2018, 01:08 AM
Replies: 738
Views: 95,614
Posted By AltonKelsey
I concede that, but there's also the much greater...

I concede that, but there's also the much greater liquidity to consider making for higher NET profits, which is all that really matters. You can't actually spend a higher ROI.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-16-2018, 09:27 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 95,614
Posted By AltonKelsey
This we know. I expect the whales also know...

This we know. I expect the whales also know this, and bet accordingly, increasing their handle along with the pool size. 4% , even 10% would be leaving a lot on the table.

It can't be 4%. Bet...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-16-2018, 04:42 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 95,614
Posted By AltonKelsey
4% whale handle. Doubt it gets that low, or...

4% whale handle.

Doubt it gets that low, or anything like it

If that were true , any decent handicapper would mint money
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-16-2018, 01:11 AM
Replies: 738
Views: 95,614
Posted By AltonKelsey
Not sure if the payoff you're speaking of was...

Not sure if the payoff you're speaking of was high or low, but you have to keep in mind that as the payoff sizes increase (as they do with each added leg) less money is on each combination, relative...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-15-2018, 10:55 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 95,614
Posted By AltonKelsey
Those whales have really fast fingers.

Those whales have really fast fingers.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-15-2018, 05:44 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 95,614
Posted By AltonKelsey
Well, I assume you mean that because the better...

Well, I assume you mean that because the better informed/capitalized/rebated players are given access to this technology, they are able to play a better game, then yes.

Not sure they would do...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-15-2018, 05:13 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 95,614
Posted By AltonKelsey
Frankly, I can't imagine any console (its console...

Frankly, I can't imagine any console (its console , not consul) being the edge.

All those do , assuming one exists, is make the batch betting late more efficient.

And maybe they get the tote...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-15-2018, 05:08 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 95,614
Posted By AltonKelsey
:p nice

:p nice
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-14-2018, 01:37 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 95,614
Posted By AltonKelsey
If anyone here thinks these odds changes are the...

If anyone here thinks these odds changes are the reason they lose money, they are delusional.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-12-2018, 10:13 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 95,614
Posted By AltonKelsey
Too long of a day, with all the money they are...

Too long of a day, with all the money they are minting, I heard they run 5 shifts.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-11-2018, 01:09 AM
Replies: 738
Views: 95,614
Posted By AltonKelsey
You're correct, shortly after start 1.60 to .90 ...

You're correct, shortly after start 1.60 to .90 (might have been .99 ,no way to tell at this point)

Could have been an adjustment coupled with some big puncher betting , but yep, that's a big...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-11-2018, 01:00 AM
Replies: 738
Views: 95,614
Posted By AltonKelsey
Really? Then all those sharp players banking in...

Really? Then all those sharp players banking in Europe for the last 15 years, they should give the money back?
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-10-2018, 05:57 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 95,614
Posted By AltonKelsey
Not sure how that qualifies as manipulation. I'd...

Not sure how that qualifies as manipulation. I'd only classify a cancelled bet as such.

Anyone is entitled to bet as late as they want, what exactly is the issue with that ? Granted, the...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-07-2018, 03:08 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 95,614
Posted By AltonKelsey
THEY? Are we assuming there is only one THEY ? ...

THEY? Are we assuming there is only one THEY ?

I thought there were a dozen THEYS. THEY cant' all make the last wager can THEY?
Showing results 1 to 25 of 33
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