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Search: Posts Made By: RonTiller
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-27-2023, 11:39 AM
Replies: 13
Views: 1,127
Posted By RonTiller
Here's more detail on the sample from 2020 to...

Here's more detail on the sample from 2020 to present:



Starts Wins Win% ROI IV Avg Field Size
OFF 3368 1319 39.16 0.84 2.74 7.55
FAST 26582 10343 38.91 0.84 2.72 7.70


Nearly...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-26-2023, 03:54 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 1,127
Posted By RonTiller
Normally I would post Impact Value, which takes...

Normally I would post Impact Value, which takes into account field size. I'm really busy today though and didn't have the time to do that. This only took 5 minutes. You've now got me curious...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-26-2023, 11:21 AM
Replies: 13
Views: 1,127
Posted By RonTiller
Maiden races = Maiden Claiming + MSW + Waive...

Maiden races = Maiden Claiming + MSW + Waive Maiden Claiming + Maiden Optional Claiming

Time Period = 2023 to present

Favorites in Maiden races where the track condition is listed as Sloppy,...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-15-2023, 10:30 AM
Replies: 22
Views: 1,943
Posted By RonTiller
I can't speak to what BRIS or anybody else does...

I can't speak to what BRIS or anybody else does with 5F races.

The 1/4 mile times are collected by Equibase for 5F races, with the minor exception of some small fair tracks. The points of call...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 08-25-2023, 12:29 PM
Replies: 43
Views: 4,151
Posted By RonTiller
This is actually a pretty good question on a...

This is actually a pretty good question on a complicated topic. As most handicappers are well aware that horses can earn speed ratings in al kinds of different ways (good trip, bad trip, bad ride,...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 06-06-2023, 10:47 AM
Replies: 106
Views: 10,971
Posted By RonTiller
These 3 races had stakes nominations published...

These 3 races had stakes nominations published for CD. They are now republished as ELP races, with 2 of them having a date change.


The Mighty Beau
The Leslie's Lady Overnight Stakes
The...
Forum: Handicapping Software 02-16-2023, 05:21 PM
Replies: 9
If
Views: 1,591
Posted By RonTiller
There are many programs that convert PDF files to...

There are many programs that convert PDF files to various other formats, many free and many quite pricey. You can Google search on "PDF to Text". However be prepared to be disappointed. Much...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-15-2022, 10:25 AM
Replies: 28
Views: 3,843
Posted By RonTiller
1. As with Equibase, Belmont At The Big A and...

1. As with Equibase, Belmont At The Big A and Aqueduct meet statistics are combined for calculating at-the-track statistics and previous meet statistics.

2. As with Equibase, all track records set...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 04-20-2022, 11:06 AM
Replies: 2
Views: 610
Posted By RonTiller
Jeff, As somebody who has been thinking...

Jeff,

As somebody who has been thinking about this whole issue for a long time, maybe you can discuss some of the possible implications of this new technology (beyond the obvious that horse lives...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-20-2021, 10:23 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 1,856
Posted By RonTiller
This is for races where original finish position...

This is for races where original finish position = 1 and official finish position > 1 and there is no win payoff for that horse. This last condition separates off horses who were subsequently DQ'd...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-16-2020, 02:01 PM
Replies: 219
Views: 123,942
Posted By RonTiller
A speed ratings study was done in I believe...

A speed ratings study was done in I believe 1998-1999, proposed and managed by Jim Bayle. Jim Bayle produced a regular horse racing report for his company SportStat and was an obvious person to...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-10-2020, 11:39 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 1,149
Posted By RonTiller
Steady decline in percentage wearing front warps...

Steady decline in percentage wearing front warps since 1995:

1995... 24.4%
2005... 23.4%
2010....21.4%
2019....19.7%

Ron Tiller
HDW
Forum: General Racing Discussion 07-06-2020, 03:48 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 2,920
Posted By RonTiller
I've seen some pretty sophisticated analyses from...

I've seen some pretty sophisticated analyses from somebody using At The Races by Gary Pizzigati. This programmer did not want to reinvent the wheel when it came to downloading, parsing and futzing...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 06-23-2020, 01:24 PM
Replies: 80
Views: 12,495
Posted By RonTiller
This data is not from HTR. HDW provides the data...

This data is not from HTR. HDW provides the data files for HTR and is a Value Added Reseller of Equibase data.

The statistics are for the morning line favorite in each race, i.e. the horse in...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 06-15-2020, 02:57 PM
Replies: 80
Views: 12,495
Posted By RonTiller
These are the tracks with the worst performing...

These are the tracks with the worst performing morning line, based solely on the number of MLO favorites that become tote favorites. Some of these tracks might perform better based on other metrics....
Forum: General Racing Discussion 06-14-2020, 12:02 PM
Replies: 80
Views: 12,495
Posted By RonTiller
Hey Dave, I don't know if you are referring to...

Hey Dave, I don't know if you are referring to Jim Cramer but Jim has said that many times re first time starters. It drove him nuts.

Ron Tiller
HDW
Forum: General Racing Discussion 06-14-2020, 11:59 AM
Replies: 80
Views: 12,495
Posted By RonTiller
I just did a quick down and dirty query comparing...

I just did a quick down and dirty query comparing MLO favorite versus actual tote board favorite. A quick check of yesterday's cards validated the data is correct.

Data is for Jan 1 2019 through...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-24-2020, 07:12 PM
Replies: 8
Views: 1,948
Posted By RonTiller
The DRF SR & TV you are referring to are just the...

The DRF SR & TV you are referring to are just the 3 year best based speed rating and track variant. The calculation is not complicated nor subject to subjective judgements. The period of the 3...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 01-09-2019, 11:30 AM
Replies: 95
Views: 15,049
Posted By RonTiller
Exactly. It can be a real thing of beauty to see...

Exactly. It can be a real thing of beauty to see these complicated handicapping/betting infrastructures at work. There are certainly contributors to PaceAdvantage who do something along the lines...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 01-08-2019, 11:37 AM
Replies: 95
Views: 15,049
Posted By RonTiller
What is REAL Handicapping and So what?

Who is "really" handicapping? What is "really" handicapping? And does it really even matter? I didn't want to contribute to thread creep in the Is a Positive ROI Attainable... thread so I started...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 07-06-2018, 12:13 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 1,660
Posted By RonTiller
There is not one race type called optional...

There is not one race type called optional claiming. There are several race types in the optional claiming family:

Allowance Optional Claiming - Race conditions are written as an allowance race...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-23-2017, 12:32 PM
Replies: 100
Views: 25,927
Posted By RonTiller
Just got around to reading this thread. ...

Just got around to reading this thread.




Ellis is partly correct - Jim Bayle initiated and oversaw a speed ratings study in 1999 (or 2000?). HDW was a part of the study, supplying Jim...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-25-2017, 09:44 AM
Replies: 40
Views: 9,667
Posted By RonTiller
Thaskalos, We apologize for the missing Pace...

Thaskalos,

We apologize for the missing Pace Numbers. We had a few simultaneous computer mishaps and we are working to restore everything back to normal. It has ended up being more work than...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-08-2017, 10:22 AM
Replies: 54
Views: 4,882
Posted By RonTiller
Jim Cramer does not use pars in his speed...

Jim Cramer does not use pars in his speed ratings, either for variants or track to track.

In the mid 90s, when we were relatively new in the business, we put a 3 year best speed rating in our...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-23-2016, 02:03 PM
Replies: 1
Views: 1,072
Posted By RonTiller
HTR Web Site down

I hope this is not deemed inappropriate by the moderators but I'll certainly understand if it is.

There was a question directed to me on another thread about the HTR web site being down.

There...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 253

 
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