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Posts Made By:
Seabiscuit@AR
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
04-15-2024, 01:42 AM
Replies:
11
Pride Of Jenni - wow!
Views:
950
Posted By
Seabiscuit@AR
There is a good analysis of this race at the link...
There is a good analysis of this race at the link below. The jockeys in the peloton gave the winner way too big of a start. The winner was running about 15 lengths faster than average but they let...
Forum:
Off Topic - General
08-15-2021, 07:07 AM
Replies:
10,258
The coronavirus
Views:
1,446,268
Posted By
Seabiscuit@AR
The Spanish flu second wave was more lethal than...
The Spanish flu second wave was more lethal than the first wave. So that is one virus that did mutate to become more lethal
https://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-second-wave-resurgence
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
05-20-2020, 11:34 AM
Replies:
14
How do the big syndicates bet into tote pools?
Views:
3,403
Posted By
Seabiscuit@AR
It is impossible for big syndicates to get their...
It is impossible for big syndicates to get their bets on at the right time and the right price all the time. So they are happy to get their bets on at the right time and the right price most of the...
Forum:
Off Topic - General
05-16-2020, 03:22 AM
Replies:
114
The Downsides to Wearing the Symbol of Fear on Your Face
Views:
14,682
Posted By
Seabiscuit@AR
Asian countries are the big mask wearing...
Asian countries are the big mask wearing countries. Their official death rates per million people are about 100 times lower than several developed Western countries
South Korea make 10 million...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
08-21-2019, 08:41 AM
Replies:
7
HKJC starting fixed odds betting via Betfair
Views:
1,453
Posted By
Seabiscuit@AR
well that is a surprise as Betfair offered HK...
well that is a surprise as Betfair offered HK years ago but stopped and their stance has always been to wait till they get official approval. So I assumed they had official approval
Without...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
08-21-2019, 04:48 AM
Replies:
7
HKJC starting fixed odds betting via Betfair
Views:
1,453
Posted By
Seabiscuit@AR
HKJC starting fixed odds betting via Betfair
It was recently reported that Hong Kong tote turnover fell late last season. Looks like the HKJC has decided that the rebated tote model no longer has any growth left in it so they have decided to...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
08-12-2019, 10:05 AM
Replies:
89
Tapeta 10
Views:
12,321
Posted By
Seabiscuit@AR
They need to solve the kickback issue with the...
They need to solve the kickback issue with the synthetic tracks. The amount of kickback on synthetic tracks in Australia in recent times has been truly terrible. Horses are even being scratched due...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
07-16-2019, 04:16 AM
Replies:
16
Hong Kong Turnover Falls
Views:
1,787
Posted By
Seabiscuit@AR
highnote You cannot make apples to apples...
highnote
You cannot make apples to apples comparisons with the commingled pools as HK keep adding new countries each year. So if you commingle with 3 countries one year and 5 countries the next...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
07-15-2019, 01:22 PM
Replies:
16
Hong Kong Turnover Falls
Views:
1,787
Posted By
Seabiscuit@AR
Hong Kong Turnover Falls
Hong Kong betting turnover has fallen in the last few months. Had to happen one day. International commingling of pools has kept the turnover going up the last few years but they have run out of...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
04-09-2019, 03:24 AM
Replies:
18
Winx has done it all, but it's only natural to want more
Views:
2,645
Posted By
Seabiscuit@AR
Winx's jockey Hugh Bowman has said in the last 24...
Winx's jockey Hugh Bowman has said in the last 24 hours that Winx is racing as well as ever and could race on. I agree with him. Winx is still racing very close to her best. She could win overseas...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
03-10-2019, 03:31 AM
Replies:
62
Thoughts on Horse Racing
Views:
7,904
Posted By
Seabiscuit@AR
People will bet if they think they can win. If...
People will bet if they think they can win. If they can't win they won't bet
The problem with running a rebated tote is that it makes it relatively easy for the entrenched big syndicates to win...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
01-26-2019, 04:42 AM
Replies:
8
TimeformUS Track Condition Ratings
Views:
1,677
Posted By
Seabiscuit@AR
Australia used to have 5 track condition ratings...
Australia used to have 5 track condition ratings (Fast, Good, Dead, Slow Heavy) although in reality it was only 4 as Fast was almost never used. A few years back they switched to the 1 to 10...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
01-16-2019, 06:09 AM
Replies:
95
What is REAL Handicapping and So what?
Views:
15,141
Posted By
Seabiscuit@AR
In some cases the big whales don't need to have a...
In some cases the big whales don't need to have a good relationship with an ADW. This is because the whale owns the ADW they bet with. So the whale is the ADW. You can get some very big rebates...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
11-20-2018, 11:20 PM
Replies:
16
betfair
Views:
3,185
Posted By
Seabiscuit@AR
No it is not a losing lay bet if the horse has...
No it is not a losing lay bet if the horse has the lead during the race
Results with in the run betting are determined normally = winner is first horse to hit the finish line
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
11-16-2018, 02:11 AM
Replies:
16
betfair
Views:
3,185
Posted By
Seabiscuit@AR
Betfair has 2 separate markets on the race (3...
Betfair has 2 separate markets on the race (3 markets even if you count Betfair SP)
The main betting market is the pre race market which closes when the race starts. Then Betfair open a second...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
08-23-2018, 11:35 AM
Replies:
37
Is Winx really the best horse?
Views:
4,397
Posted By
Seabiscuit@AR
Winx is absolutely top class. She is a class...
Winx is absolutely top class. She is a class above other good horses. And she has shown she can reliably produce really high rating runs when it counts. She has already done enough to join the...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
08-15-2018, 12:51 AM
Replies:
30
JC report on CRW wagering
Views:
3,233
Posted By
Seabiscuit@AR
I have never understood how they can make much...
I have never understood how they can make much profit in a pool of 4K or 5K. But they still do form on these races and bet into them. Maybe the small tracks offer them some super rebate deal on...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
08-14-2018, 11:49 PM
Replies:
30
JC report on CRW wagering
Views:
3,233
Posted By
Seabiscuit@AR
One clarification from this report. The whales...
One clarification from this report. The whales are not just looking to bet at the biggest tracks. The whales want to bet in the biggest pools they can find. They want the Kentucky Derby pools to...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
07-27-2018, 01:01 AM
Replies:
299
Whales: A chink in the armor?
Views:
42,489
Posted By
Seabiscuit@AR
Good question Thaskalos re why do the biggest...
Good question Thaskalos re why do the biggest whale syndicates pay the crazy cost for the best and fastest tote updates
The answer is obvious. It is a big advantage to have last crack at the tote...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
07-25-2018, 03:44 AM
Replies:
299
Whales: A chink in the armor?
Views:
42,489
Posted By
Seabiscuit@AR
The link below is an article written in 2012 so 6...
The link below is an article written in 2012 so 6 years old and the info might be out of date. In this article RGS state that their rebate players lose -6% before rebates
...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
07-13-2018, 10:49 PM
Replies:
158
Questions about Firenze Fire/Jason Servis
Views:
24,938
Posted By
Seabiscuit@AR
The current strategy being employed by syndicates...
The current strategy being employed by syndicates and big betting insiders is clearly one of waiting till the last second
The idea of putting a big bet on early to put other players off is so...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
07-12-2018, 10:00 AM
Replies:
56
NYRA Cuts Winner's Share Of Purse
Views:
6,136
Posted By
Seabiscuit@AR
You don't want jockeys betting even on themselves...
You don't want jockeys betting even on themselves to win
The problem is a group of jockeys could reach an understanding that they will help each other's bet win. So 4 jockeys might agree to help...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
07-08-2018, 02:10 AM
Replies:
127
What is the deal with the late bets?
Views:
14,787
Posted By
Seabiscuit@AR
Betting handle is up over 5% comparing early 2018...
Betting handle is up over 5% comparing early 2018 vs early 2017. So somebody is liking the new world order with the late odds changes. Given these figures I cannot see any changes to the rules...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
06-21-2018, 01:09 AM
Replies:
182
Poll:
Controversial Thread Alert! Super Trainers. Good for the game? Bad for the game?
Views:
41,203
Posted By
Seabiscuit@AR
Trainers is one aspect that Hong Kong do right. ...
Trainers is one aspect that Hong Kong do right. In Hong Kong each trainer is limited to 60 runners in their stable at a time. A limit on runners per trainer is an easy rule to implement and enforce...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
05-01-2018, 08:47 AM
Replies:
85
Win Odds Whiners - helping or hurting?
Views:
9,894
Posted By
Seabiscuit@AR
I don't agree with the example provided by...
I don't agree with the example provided by Prioress Ply where it is said this is normal business practice where if you buy 1 light bulb you will pay a higher price per light bulb than a person who...
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