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Search took 0.04 seconds. Search: Posts Made By: flatstats
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 07-10-2020, 08:11 PM
Replies: 32
Views: 4,497
Posted By flatstats
Owners need to be split into groups. At the...

Owners need to be split into groups.

At the top end you have the uber rich owners such as

Kirsten Rausing
The Queen
John Magnier
Niarchos and family
various Sheikhs
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 06-19-2020, 09:03 PM
Replies: 21
Views: 4,706
Posted By flatstats
I don't wish to be rude but forget mumbo jumbo...

I don't wish to be rude but forget mumbo jumbo like biorhythms.

Instead try looking at:

Trainers giving live ones to their retained jockeys
Owners giving live ones to their favourite jockeys...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 06-13-2020, 08:50 PM
Replies: 21
Views: 4,706
Posted By flatstats
Analysis of jockey birthdays is easily flawed. ...

Analysis of jockey birthdays is easily flawed.

Unless you can get hold of the racing administrator's jockey database then any source of data will be biased towards older jockeys or headline news...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-27-2019, 08:23 PM
Replies: 123
Views: 27,349
Posted By flatstats
Whales and gate odds crushers (or whatever they...

Whales and gate odds crushers (or whatever they are called) and the masses are not right 100% of the time and they also miss out on crushing prices that should be crushed more than they should be.
...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-14-2019, 12:43 PM
Replies: 18
Views: 3,223
Posted By flatstats
They would halve the stake not the odds. ...

They would halve the stake not the odds.

e.g. you back a 4/1 shot at £5 and it dead heats.

Your return is £2.50 at 4/1 = £12.50

Betting exchanges would do the same. Half of your stake is...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-13-2019, 09:10 PM
Replies: 377
Views: 176,257
Posted By flatstats
I would sandbox it until 2020 or 2021. I would...

I would sandbox it until 2020 or 2021. I would wait until the number of *live* runners (and the odds of those runners) was sufficient to decide if it was worth following or not. That process would...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-13-2019, 08:43 PM
Replies: 377
Views: 176,257
Posted By flatstats
Back-fitting is pure evil. The vast...

Back-fitting is pure evil.

The vast majority of computer handicappers do it because they get a buzz off it. Two buzzes in fact.

The first buzz is the unbelievable success: a ridiculous strike...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-06-2019, 08:38 PM
Replies: 1
Views: 1,163
Posted By flatstats
Van Der Wheil

This is a system / method that has done the rounds in the UK for the past 3 decades or so. It is a method, which relies on form, class, and a ton of a pinch of salt.

I will admit I have always...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-06-2019, 08:18 PM
Replies: 123
Views: 27,349
Posted By flatstats
I very much doubt this system would still be...

I very much doubt this system would still be profitable after it was published.

And not because "everyone knows about it and the odds collapsed", duuuhh.

This system has all the hallmarks of...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 05-18-2019, 08:32 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 1,260
Posted By flatstats
The fav / longshot bias does still exist but...

The fav / longshot bias does still exist but there are a few of things to be aware of.

1. In a single race there can only be one true favourite (or horse in the odds range of 0.10 to 0.99) whilst...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-26-2019, 08:58 PM
Replies: 14
Views: 2,018
Posted By flatstats
Hmmm. 100 horses that went off at 2/7 100...

Hmmm.

100 horses that went off at 2/7
100 horses that went off at 100/1

Which set of results from them would be the most reliable?

Obviously the first one, which means that if you want to...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-26-2019, 08:30 PM
Replies: 8
Views: 1,788
Posted By flatstats
We have had Betfair in the UK for 18 years now....

We have had Betfair in the UK for 18 years now. Here's a general observation:

Value
There is no doubt that the prices you can get are better value. Books are around 3%, which is much better than...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 03-02-2019, 06:27 AM
Replies: 44
Views: 12,200
Posted By flatstats
The answer to your question of a question isn't...

The answer to your question of a question isn't as obvious as it seems either.

What if the 84 prior bets included 20 *won* photo finishes and 5 *wins* due to disqualifications of other runners in...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 03-01-2019, 08:34 PM
Replies: 44
Views: 12,200
Posted By flatstats
In the UK the ROI is indeed simply the Return On...

In the UK the ROI is indeed simply the Return On Investment.

If your method has 85 bets, and you netted a profit of £125 after staking a total of £597 then your ROI = 125 / 597 * 100% = 20.9%.
...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-01-2019, 08:22 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 4,858
Posted By flatstats
I don't know about the US but here in GB there...

I don't know about the US but here in GB there are various angles to go on.

The first is the breeding cycle, which affects female horses. Females perform much worse from November to March than...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 05-01-2016, 08:11 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 893
Posted By flatstats
Don't look for very high percentage keys to...

Don't look for very high percentage keys to include. Look for very high percentage favourites to exclude.

Trifectas, Exactas, PlacePots in US or UK are all the same. The masses will include a...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-29-2016, 08:21 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 2,951
Posted By flatstats
I still can't believe you guys are so fixated on...

I still can't believe you guys are so fixated on strike rates and ROIs. These figures have no value in them, and are easily biased such as varying field sizes or types of race.

The key stat is the...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-12-2016, 08:15 PM
Replies: 8
Views: 8,905
Posted By flatstats
The UK Tote Swinger takeout is 30%. This is a...

The UK Tote Swinger takeout is 30%. This is a huge hurdle to overcome if you want to profit from it.

Couple with that the fact that it is not a popular bet for day to day races (such that the...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-18-2015, 11:17 AM
Replies: 12
Views: 2,898
Posted By flatstats
Dave is correct in that the odds matter. If your...

Dave is correct in that the odds matter. If your method picks 2/1 shots then the sample size can be much shorter than if it picks 20/1 shots.

Sample size is not everything either. You still need...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-13-2015, 07:50 PM
Replies: 95
Views: 12,534
Posted By flatstats
Yep. Difficult for a rational, human mind to ban...

Yep. Difficult for a rational, human mind to ban someone under those circumstances. But this is the age of the algorithm, where programmers type the code, the computer spits out the report and the...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-13-2015, 07:05 PM
Replies: 95
Views: 12,534
Posted By flatstats
They would ban losing punters because their...

They would ban losing punters because their algorithm told them to.

There is an example of a punter who opened an account with one of the Big Four bookies. Soon after opening the account he was...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-13-2015, 04:18 PM
Replies: 95
Views: 12,534
Posted By flatstats
I think you have (what we say here) got the wrong...

I think you have (what we say here) got the wrong end of the stick there.

Maybe I should have put "filthy arbers" in quotes because those terms are what bookies use to justify banning punters....
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-13-2015, 06:15 AM
Replies: 95
Views: 12,534
Posted By flatstats
He is the semi-pro lone wolf. He tripped...

He is the semi-pro lone wolf. He tripped algorithms, which have changed in recent years to catch more punters and place them on the restricted list. When the first email arrived he should have...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-12-2015, 09:15 PM
Replies: 95
Views: 12,534
Posted By flatstats
Here are some typical articles, which gives...

Here are some typical articles, which gives insight into how bookmakers now operate in relation to banning customers:
...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-12-2015, 04:55 PM
Replies: 95
Views: 12,534
Posted By flatstats
Yes that sort of happens here too. But it mostly...

Yes that sort of happens here too. But it mostly happens to filthy arbers and Pricewise type sheep followers.

Basically, the bookies do not like punters who take prices that are then plunged on....
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