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Search took 0.06 seconds. Search: Posts Made By: OCF
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 06-10-2015, 07:40 PM
Replies: 63
Views: 6,544
Posted By OCF
I bet against AP in all three TC races, have no...

I bet against AP in all three TC races, have no regrets (other than I didn't enjoy his Belmont stretch run as much as I would have otherwise), will continue to do so in similar situations in the...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 06-10-2015, 07:31 PM
Replies: 20
Views: 2,693
Posted By OCF
God bless the fellow in the white hat with the...

God bless the fellow in the white hat with the black band. He looks to be the only one that obviously did not have a cellphone in his hand. For all I know he is a chasing degenerate who is about to...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 06-08-2015, 06:21 PM
Replies: 328
Views: 29,881
Posted By OCF
Thanks for the detailed reply. After reading...

Thanks for the detailed reply. After reading your reply and having my memory jogged I'm pretty sure that what I read here was that show bettors pay the highest effective breakage. That makes a lot...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 06-08-2015, 05:23 PM
Replies: 328
Views: 29,881
Posted By OCF
I think I once read on here that show players pay...

I think I once read on here that show players pay the highest effective takeout. I took that to mean that the WPS takeout % is subtracted three times from the show pool, once for each show payout.
...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-11-2015, 09:07 PM
Replies: 57
Views: 5,187
Posted By OCF
That's an interesting rule of thumb - do you have...

That's an interesting rule of thumb - do you have similar rules for the other verticals?
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-04-2015, 07:38 AM
Replies: 91
Views: 12,877
Posted By OCF
You're right, I was using the stretch call rather...

You're right, I was using the stretch call rather than the one mile call.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-03-2015, 11:09 PM
Replies: 91
Views: 12,877
Posted By OCF
I've got Keen Ice with a final 1/4 of 25.32.

I've got Keen Ice with a final 1/4 of 25.32.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-03-2015, 07:23 PM
Replies: 91
Views: 12,877
Posted By OCF
My understanding was FL, having run in the...

My understanding was FL, having run in the Sunland Derby, wouldn't qualify.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-02-2015, 09:07 PM
Replies: 85
Views: 8,459
Posted By OCF
Didn't the "never having run in a field of 10 or...

Didn't the "never having run in a field of 10 or greater" angle bite the dust also?
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-02-2015, 09:06 PM
Replies: 85
Views: 8,459
Posted By OCF
FL adds to the case that you can run in a minor...

FL adds to the case that you can run in a minor prep and still have success.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-02-2015, 09:02 PM
Replies: 8
Views: 1,517
Posted By OCF
AP ran from PP 15

AP ran from PP 15
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-02-2015, 08:36 PM
Replies: 85
Views: 8,459
Posted By OCF
Wood Memorial now 0 for past 11 years in...

Wood Memorial now 0 for past 11 years in finishing 3rd or better.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-02-2015, 03:40 PM
Replies: 85
Views: 9,066
Posted By OCF
$1 Super box :3::10::15::19::20: $1 Exacta...

$1 Super box :3::10::15::19::20:

$1 Exacta box :3::8::10::15::18::19::20:
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-28-2015, 07:21 PM
Replies: 45
Views: 3,458
Posted By OCF
Thanks :)

Thanks :)
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-28-2015, 06:30 PM
Replies: 14
Views: 1,138
Posted By OCF
The horse that would otherwise be the favorite,...

The horse that would otherwise be the favorite, in this case American Pharoah.

The betting public is good at picking winners but not at overcoming the takeout.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-27-2015, 01:07 PM
Replies: 66
Views: 7,012
Posted By OCF
I like El Kabeir a little also. He reminds me of...

I like El Kabeir a little also. He reminds me of International Star, knows how to win races although the fields he's beaten were not particularly impressive. His numbers are actually a little...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-26-2015, 11:31 PM
Replies: 66
Views: 7,012
Posted By OCF
I can't disagree with any of that! There will...

I can't disagree with any of that! There will probably be traffic issues for the closers, but the rail might be there (Mine That Bird) or the far outside (Giacomo).
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-26-2015, 11:26 PM
Replies: 66
Views: 7,012
Posted By OCF
Absolutely, just the kind of idea I was looking...

Absolutely, just the kind of idea I was looking for. He's shown that he's capable of a big speed figure, which is easy to overlook given his past two races. Maybe 3rd off the layoff will do the...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-26-2015, 10:40 PM
Replies: 66
Views: 7,012
Posted By OCF
Make your best case for a particular longshot to WIN

For purposes of discussion consider the following to be longshots:

International Star
Bolo
Danzig Moon
El Kabeir
Far Right
Itsaknockout
Stanford
Tencendur
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-26-2015, 08:02 PM
Replies: 21
Views: 3,878
Posted By OCF
My pleasure sbcaris. You've been generous with a...

My pleasure sbcaris. You've been generous with a lot of data that had to have taken you a lot of time to compile.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-26-2015, 06:25 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 2,547
Posted By OCF
Why the incredulity bordering on ridicule? The...

Why the incredulity bordering on ridicule? The man has unequivocally made his picks, and in six days we'll know for certain how he did. It's silly to argue about it now.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-26-2015, 01:39 PM
Replies: 21
Views: 3,878
Posted By OCF
The list I came up with is attached below. ...

The list I came up with is attached below.

I don't know a lot about statistics, but I'm pretty sure 28 under-performing to 25 out-performing their win odds would not be considered...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-26-2015, 10:19 AM
Replies: 21
Views: 3,878
Posted By OCF
This list appears to omit Commanding Curve, IMHO...

This list appears to omit Commanding Curve, IMHO he makes a big difference in the takeaway.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-26-2015, 07:06 AM
Replies: 21
Views: 3,878
Posted By OCF
I've been skeptical, but that is grim.

I've been skeptical, but that is grim.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-23-2015, 07:43 PM
Replies: 45
Views: 3,458
Posted By OCF
For example, if the (prevailing?) wind (in early...

For example, if the (prevailing?) wind (in early May?) at the start of Churchill Downs is WSW, what direction is the wind at the start of Santa Anita? And on around the SA track?
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