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Search: Posts Made By: dilanesp
Forum: General Racing Discussion Yesterday, 09:58 PM
Replies: 27
Views: 1,561
Posted By dilanesp
If I understand cj's speed figure system (posted...

If I understand cj's speed figure system (posted in the other thread), Instilled Regard regressed at least a couple of lengths in that race. And he was beaten by a horse that he had beaten when the...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** Yesterday, 10:48 AM
Replies: 143
Views: 29,629
Posted By dilanesp
That is called the curse of Apollo. Like every...

That is called the curse of Apollo. Like every other statistically based "you can't win the Derby if", it will be broken eventually. We have already had several Derby winners with abbreviated 2 year...
Forum: General Racing Discussion Yesterday, 10:45 AM
Replies: 27
Views: 1,561
Posted By dilanesp
I think the slow pace compromised Instilled...

I think the slow pace compromised Instilled Regard and Noble Indy. Any time you see the closers look like they are running on a treadmill in the stretch after slow fractions, throw the race out.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-17-2018, 04:55 PM
Replies: 1,494
Views: 160,041
Posted By dilanesp
SA R2 2/15/18

Did anyone else not like the non-starter ruling regarding the :1: ? It didn't look to me like anything other than she reared up at the start on her own accord. She was 2-1 though and the stewards...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-14-2018, 11:02 PM
Replies: 90
Views: 2,463
Posted By dilanesp
Churn only matters for bettors with a fixed...

Churn only matters for bettors with a fixed bsnkroll who bet a lot.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-14-2018, 10:06 PM
Replies: 90
Views: 2,463
Posted By dilanesp
The problem with this analysis is that it assumes...

The problem with this analysis is that it assumes that all bettors care equally about takeout.

What is the most profitable strategy if some bettors care a lot about takeout and some don't?
...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-14-2018, 10:05 PM
Replies: 8
Views: 723
Posted By dilanesp
another new low for Santa Anita

On Sunday they ran a MCL16000 race. Lowest maiden claimer I can ever remember, and they still only got six horses to run in it.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-13-2018, 02:51 PM
Replies: 36
Views: 2,115
Posted By dilanesp
Tell that to all the players in Las Vegas who are...

Tell that to all the players in Las Vegas who are now playing 6 to 5 blackjack.

Seriously, A LOT OF GAMBLERS DO NOT CARE ABOUT TAKEOUT. Some do. Gambling businesses make more money by separating...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-12-2018, 07:54 PM
Replies: 62
Views: 2,780
Posted By dilanesp
I agree that parlays are stupid bets. But it...

I agree that parlays are stupid bets.

But it is ALSO stupid to want to hedge a +EV bet. In other words, if you really believe the last bet on the parlay is +EV, it is entirely superstitious to...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-12-2018, 06:56 PM
Replies: 90
Views: 2,463
Posted By dilanesp
What is allowed and how the human brain...

What is allowed and how the human brain approaches gambling action are two different things.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-12-2018, 05:58 PM
Replies: 62
Views: 2,780
Posted By dilanesp
From a mathematical standpoint, hedges and passes...

From a mathematical standpoint, hedges and passes of +EV bets because you are ahead are terrible. I know why players do it, but they shouldn't.

So to the extent that an automatic parlay forces you...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-12-2018, 05:54 PM
Replies: 90
Views: 2,463
Posted By dilanesp
There is an argument that I have heard made that...

There is an argument that I have heard made that for a casual player, a bet on a game is the absolute best form of gambling.

The basic argument is that when you bet on a game, it gives you hours...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-12-2018, 05:49 PM
Replies: 36
Views: 2,115
Posted By dilanesp
I went to Vegas a couple of weeks ago and they...

I went to Vegas a couple of weeks ago and they definitely are no longer consistently setting football lines at 110-100, and some of the lines are not 105-100 either. I saw some 115-100 and 120-100 on...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-10-2018, 12:01 AM
Replies: 72
Views: 3,139
Posted By dilanesp
Television, for three. Weather, for four. And...

Television, for three. Weather, for four. And actually those two reasons are much bigger.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-08-2018, 11:08 PM
Replies: 72
Views: 3,139
Posted By dilanesp
Exactly.

Exactly.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-07-2018, 03:25 AM
Replies: 72
Views: 3,139
Posted By dilanesp
No a starter allowance.

No a starter allowance.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-06-2018, 09:52 PM
Replies: 72
Views: 3,139
Posted By dilanesp
I don't think you will ever see more than 1 race...

I don't think you will ever see more than 1 race on the network again, because for that to happen the BC would have to offer the Distaff, and the Distaff anchors Friday.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-06-2018, 07:53 PM
Replies: 72
Views: 3,139
Posted By dilanesp
I think the network TV thing is key. There...

I think the network TV thing is key.

There is a reason major sports leagues try and get on network television. It means more exposure.

No doubt the second day is a cash cow. But what it cost...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-06-2018, 06:50 PM
Replies: 72
Views: 3,139
Posted By dilanesp
No, do it as part of the BC with a half mil puse.

No, do it as part of the BC with a half mil puse.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-06-2018, 02:55 PM
Replies: 72
Views: 3,139
Posted By dilanesp
I know people here will laugh, but a BC starter...

I know people here will laugh, but a BC starter allowance- a sort of claiming horse championship- would be a decent idea.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-03-2018, 04:24 PM
Replies: 40
Views: 1,226
Posted By dilanesp
This ia wrong. It is much more difficult to have...

This ia wrong. It is much more difficult to have a long career and win lots of races.

I am not a big fan of Secretariat retiring early either, but there is no comparison between Secretariat, who...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-02-2018, 06:04 PM
Replies: 83
Views: 5,462
Posted By dilanesp
Galvin v. New York Racing Ass'n,*70 F.Supp.2d...

Galvin v. New York Racing Ass'n,*70 F.Supp.2d 163, 173 (E.D.N.Y. 1998) ("The property interest in these state-issued licenses cannot be infringed by a state body, including the NYRA"); Saumell v. New...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-02-2018, 03:02 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 423
Posted By dilanesp
Don't worry. Whatever market there is for an NHL...

Don't worry. Whatever market there is for an NHL team in upstate New York is already served by the Sabres.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-02-2018, 01:45 PM
Replies: 40
Views: 1,226
Posted By dilanesp
One of my very specific disappointments about AP...

One of my very specific disappointments about AP is that in any rational system, he would have met Chrome and that would have been a good race. Chrome was a star both before and after AP's career.
...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-01-2018, 03:14 PM
Replies: 83
Views: 5,462
Posted By dilanesp
There's a difference between ruling off the...

There's a difference between ruling off the grounds and prosecution.

This is the ACLU's position on no fly lists and I think it is correct. When the government bars you from doing something they...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 500

 
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