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Search took 0.01 seconds. Search: Posts Made By: classhandicapper
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-30-2020, 04:25 PM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,703
Posted By classhandicapper
Thanks. I forgot about that dynamic because I've...

Thanks. I forgot about that dynamic because I've never been able to use it effectively in my own betting. I more or less have two type of bets. One is "serious" and the other is "I'm so bored out...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-30-2020, 09:51 AM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,703
Posted By classhandicapper
Jeff, Thanks for that detailed explanation....

Jeff,

Thanks for that detailed explanation.

I understand how they are using tote information to gain an advantage finding overlays within all the pools/combinations late in the betting.

I...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-29-2020, 11:03 AM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,703
Posted By classhandicapper
:lol: I tried a different approach after I...

:lol:

I tried a different approach after I noticed the following.

If I didn't understand why the public was making a horse the favorite it won more often than the horse I thought should be the...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-29-2020, 10:57 AM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,703
Posted By classhandicapper
This is more along the lines of what I am...

This is more along the lines of what I am thinking.

He must have been using a different adjustment for different odds ranges. Just incorporating the public odds the same way all the time will...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-28-2020, 06:27 PM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,703
Posted By classhandicapper
I agree with everything you are saying in terms...

I agree with everything you are saying in terms of making a more accurate odds line, but I'm not sure how the live odds are helping him find overlays.

Let's say my own odds line gives a horse 50%...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-27-2020, 12:07 AM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,703
Posted By classhandicapper
Does anyone know if Benter used the morning line...

Does anyone know if Benter used the morning line to try to separate public money from inside money?

The more I think about this the less it makes sense unless he had different margins of safety...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-25-2020, 10:07 AM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,703
Posted By classhandicapper
It would be interesting to see which factors...

It would be interesting to see which factors Benter analyzed independently and how he incorporated the public odds.

I recently had a brief conversation with someone on Twitter that developed a...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-24-2020, 07:01 PM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,703
Posted By classhandicapper
Yes. Let's take an very simple example. ...

Yes.

Let's take an very simple example.

I don't want to give out specific names, but there are some trainers that have very big reputations whose record in recent years has been terrible. ...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-24-2020, 06:41 PM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,703
Posted By classhandicapper
I think we all agree that if you build an odds...

I think we all agree that if you build an odds lines model you will sometimes be missing information about the horses that is built into the public odds. So some of the overlays your model flashes...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-24-2020, 11:26 AM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,703
Posted By classhandicapper
As usual I agree with everything you are saying. ...

As usual I agree with everything you are saying.

Maybe some of the whales are at the stage where they are betting some races with the expectation of very small long term losses even with rebate...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-24-2020, 10:45 AM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,703
Posted By classhandicapper
I'm not talking about finding a group of horses...

I'm not talking about finding a group of horses that wins x% of the time and then betting longer odds ones based on that win%. That would be the kind of mistake you make the first week you are...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-23-2020, 02:32 PM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,703
Posted By classhandicapper
Right. That's why I've been saying winning...

Right.

That's why I've been saying winning is not so much about making an odds line for every horses as it is about finding situations where the public tends to screw up.

At first Benter...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-23-2020, 08:48 AM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,703
Posted By classhandicapper
This is exactly the way I think about it except...

This is exactly the way I think about it except without actually doing the math to create an odds line for every horse anymore.

I usually start by having a horse in mind to key on or against...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-20-2020, 03:00 PM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,703
Posted By classhandicapper
I don't have a problem with that approach other...

I don't have a problem with that approach other than I've always found it difficult to separate random hot and cold streaks from legitimate issues that could impact a trainers results.

For...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-20-2020, 09:09 AM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,703
Posted By classhandicapper
I understand that the final odds are fairly...

I understand that the final odds are fairly efficient and that the collective mind of all horse players (which includes sophisticated computer models, better informed insiders, and a lot of very...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-11-2020, 09:52 AM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,703
Posted By classhandicapper
:lol: Let's face it, even if you have an...

:lol:

Let's face it, even if you have an edge on this game, the amount time, work, and dedication involved in keeping it typically makes it a bad use of time unless you love the sport and...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-10-2020, 12:20 PM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,703
Posted By classhandicapper
I previously posted the results of my "automated"...

I previously posted the results of my "automated" race flow metrics covering multiple years that showed flat bet profits on strong upgrades and severe underperformance on strong downgrades. I did...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-10-2020, 09:11 AM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,703
Posted By classhandicapper
I know the odds are generally efficient, but I'm...

I know the odds are generally efficient, but I'm still not seeing how tracking the money flow is "adding value" to the analysis. The idea is to find the inefficiencies.

For example, I've been...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-09-2020, 01:10 PM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,703
Posted By classhandicapper
When you refer to money flow, are you trying to...

When you refer to money flow, are you trying to sperate "inside" more informed money from the money being bet by the general public?
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-07-2020, 08:55 AM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,703
Posted By classhandicapper
I suspect one of the problems is that major...

I suspect one of the problems is that major players come and go or do research and change their own betting patterns. So we are dealing with a moving target in terms of where the value is located.
...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-05-2020, 02:29 PM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,703
Posted By classhandicapper
I have no problem with any approach that gets you...

I have no problem with any approach that gets you to the promised land. :ThmbUp:

I tried making odds lines. I tried ranking horses in order of preference. I tried just going by feel when the odds...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-05-2020, 08:24 AM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,703
Posted By classhandicapper
The way I see it, you looking for fundamental...

The way I see it, you looking for fundamental handicapping factors that are not fully appreciated on the odds board these days.

That could be anything from a new and improved way of calculating...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-04-2020, 02:44 PM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,703
Posted By classhandicapper
That's a notch over my pay grade. ;) I'm...

That's a notch over my pay grade. ;)

I'm doing simpler things.

I tend to test single handicapping ideas in my database to see if they have any betting value (for example showed speed against a...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-02-2020, 09:07 AM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,703
Posted By classhandicapper
Here's another phenomenon in models and factors...

Here's another phenomenon in models and factors I've noticed on occasion.

If you test a factor on "all" cases you will typically find that you'll lose the track take or thereabouts and tend to...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-28-2020, 11:44 AM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,703
Posted By classhandicapper
This is something I've known for a long time but...

This is something I've known for a long time but not thought very clearly about.

Everyone sees it when it comes to first time starters and even some layoffs because the inside money will...
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