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Search: Posts Made By: Dave Schwartz
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-24-2020, 09:46 PM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,042
Posted By Dave Schwartz
Oh, sing it, brother! :ThmbUp::ThmbUp: ...

Oh, sing it, brother!

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

^^^
THIS!

This is the key to success for a non-whale! (Whales have enough resources to go after the high side approach. We do not.)

Having a...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-23-2020, 08:03 PM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,042
Posted By Dave Schwartz
LOL - Not exactly cracked the code but it is...

LOL - Not exactly cracked the code but it is proving to be solidly profitable.

The real question I need to get answered is, "Will it stand the test of time?"

What we've been finding is that our...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-23-2020, 04:18 PM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,042
Posted By Dave Schwartz
That approach will not work. If it did, one...

That approach will not work.

If it did, one could just use a number like BPP that produces a win rate around 30% in the top rank. Using your theory, a horse at 2/1 is break even and 4/1 should be...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-23-2020, 04:15 PM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,042
Posted By Dave Schwartz
I think I have a very clear grasp of the point. ...

I think I have a very clear grasp of the point.

I've got zero interest in predicting who the top 3 public choices are. IMHO, that is a waste of time because - as you (basically) said - it's a...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-23-2020, 11:42 AM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,042
Posted By Dave Schwartz
Because the goal is not to agree with the public...

Because the goal is not to agree with the public but to find the spots when the public is wrong.

If we used your approach to the letter we'd simply give the horses the precise probabilities...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-22-2020, 09:03 PM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,042
Posted By Dave Schwartz
That's very interesting. So, you are saying...

That's very interesting.

So, you are saying that the public's handicapping means more today than it did (say) 15 years ago?

I'm very surprised. My understanding was that the weight assigned...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-20-2020, 12:39 AM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,042
Posted By Dave Schwartz
Let me think about it a while longer. Nope....

Let me think about it a while longer.

Nope. Same answer as last time. ;-)

First, William Scott's stuff simply never worked. In fact, it kind of worked better in reverse! (i.e. toss the plays...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-19-2020, 09:05 PM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,042
Posted By Dave Schwartz
From gate loading to final odds? Yes. First...

From gate loading to final odds?

Yes. First horse loads the gate.

What if you your models odds-line rankings mirror the public? Your fav wins same % as public, 2nd fav same % as public etc.
...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-17-2020, 01:43 PM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,042
Posted By Dave Schwartz
Dick Mitchell said the same thing - that his...

Dick Mitchell said the same thing - that his underlays outperformed his overlays.

I've also found that in the entire make-a-line-and-bet-into-the-tote process.

Benter made it work by... well,...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-26-2020, 12:05 AM
Replies: 135
Views: 27,042
Posted By Dave Schwartz
This is from memory, but as I recall, they start...

This is from memory, but as I recall, they start each season with 1,200 + 200 alternates.

Other than "Invitational" races, it is a closed environment.

That's why the class structure works so...
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