Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Search Forums


Showing results 1 to 25 of 500
Search took 0.28 seconds.
Search: Posts Made By: classhandicapper
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-16-2018, 02:55 PM
Replies: 43
Views: 2,597
Posted By classhandicapper
I agree. It changes the math when you can...

I agree.

It changes the math when you can earn so much with the win that you can afford to lose the horse for less than he's worth.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-12-2018, 05:36 PM
Replies: 76
Views: 5,910
Posted By classhandicapper
Not bad. ;)

Not bad. ;)
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-01-2018, 08:46 PM
Replies: 278
Views: 12,686
Posted By classhandicapper
I get some of them wrong after the race.

I get some of them wrong after the race.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-01-2018, 10:37 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 734
Posted By classhandicapper
Knowing the track was changing speed is probably...

Knowing the track was changing speed is probably helpful in bias analysis also. It forces you to look at even smaller samples, but if for example you thought there was a strong bias early in the...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-01-2018, 10:26 AM
Replies: 1,471
Views: 227,494
Posted By classhandicapper
I just tried and was OK. If you are still having...

I just tried and was OK. If you are still having an issue send me a note with your ID and I'll make sure someone knows immediately.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-01-2018, 12:20 AM
Replies: 278
Views: 12,686
Posted By classhandicapper
I don't disagree with your rationale for not...

I don't disagree with your rationale for not playing him. I didn't play him.

However, I think what I said is correct.

If you looked at just fractions and speed figures they would have told...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-31-2018, 11:58 PM
Replies: 40
Views: 1,216
Posted By classhandicapper
At their best Gun Runner and Arrogate gets...

At their best Gun Runner and Arrogate gets decided in the last few strides based on the distance, how the race developed, and how the track was playing.

I like Gun Runner better overall because...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 01-31-2018, 11:45 PM
Replies: 46
Views: 4,903
Posted By classhandicapper
Good bump. That's the direction I am...

Good bump.

That's the direction I am heading.

I try to find an attribute, rating etc...that's close to break even as a group.

Then from within that group, I look for subset I can weed out...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-28-2018, 12:05 PM
Replies: 278
Views: 12,686
Posted By classhandicapper
IMO, as much credit as Gun Runner is getting now,...

IMO, as much credit as Gun Runner is getting now, he's probably better than that. Breaking from the 10 post, stalking a quality horse like Collected, putting him away easily when barely asked, and...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-28-2018, 11:59 AM
Replies: 278
Views: 12,686
Posted By classhandicapper
Stellar Wind also got steadied hard going into...

Stellar Wind also got steadied hard going into the first turn. That didn't help her position-wise either. She ran about as well as I expected. Given the trip, missing 3rd by 3 lengths was not...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-25-2018, 09:16 PM
Replies: 278
Views: 12,686
Posted By classhandicapper
That's why she'll probably be longer than 40-1. ...

That's why she'll probably be longer than 40-1. You have to fish for a reason to think she can regain her good form and even then wonder if that's enough to get her into the super.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-25-2018, 05:21 PM
Replies: 278
Views: 12,686
Posted By classhandicapper
I think she's an interesting use for the bottom...

I think she's an interesting use for the bottom of some exotics also.

Pretty much everyone earth thinks she too slow to begin with and after the debacle in the Distaff, she looks even worse. But...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-25-2018, 10:29 AM
Replies: 278
Views: 12,686
Posted By classhandicapper
Here's my theory for today. Smith sends...

Here's my theory for today.

Smith sends Collected just enough to make sure Gun Runner is hung out 3 wide first turn. He may even take him 4-5 wide so Geroux has to use Gun Runner harder if he...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-24-2018, 05:28 PM
Replies: 173
Views: 6,938
Posted By classhandicapper
To answer your first question, I don't know the...

To answer your first question, I don't know the answer. What I would do is look at the double "will pays" and then see if they were adding any value to my ability to predict the final odds to win.
...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-24-2018, 04:43 PM
Replies: 27
Views: 1,257
Posted By classhandicapper
I've come to like Finger Lakes. If you have a...

I've come to like Finger Lakes. If you have a statebred horse at AQU/BEL/SAR and he can't cut it there, you still have options in some of the allowance races there and can do quite well if you get...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-24-2018, 04:40 PM
Replies: 72
Views: 3,110
Posted By classhandicapper
Maybe that's their idea. ;)

Maybe that's their idea. ;)
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-23-2018, 01:23 PM
Replies: 173
Views: 6,938
Posted By classhandicapper
Good point, but since the pools are closed and...

Good point, but since the pools are closed and all the action is in, the double pools should be relatively efficient. Any crazy overlays in the doubles would have been noticed by the sharpest...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 01-23-2018, 01:15 PM
Replies: 36
Views: 2,491
Posted By classhandicapper
I'm worried that the sharp decline occurred...

I'm worried that the sharp decline occurred during the financial crisis and now we've been in a somewhat level period while the economy has been growing for the last 8-9 years.

What happens in...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-22-2018, 09:34 PM
Replies: 173
Views: 6,938
Posted By classhandicapper
I was talking about the opening win betting. ...

I was talking about the opening win betting.

In the early betting, the win pool will often be very small and the odds much different than they will be at the close. If you look at the double...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-22-2018, 08:21 PM
Replies: 278
Views: 12,686
Posted By classhandicapper
If someone gets loose, I think it's unlikely they...

If someone gets loose, I think it's unlikely they will be loose in a slow pace. Whoever gets the lead is going to have to earn it.

I can see Sharp Azteca stalking if someone out breaks him or...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-21-2018, 12:09 PM
Replies: 173
Views: 6,938
Posted By classhandicapper
I wonder how much of it is a self fulfilling...

I wonder how much of it is a self fulfilling prophecy as opposed to separate pools coming to the same conclusion.

30 years ago I used an IBM clone to create a chart of win odds and corresponding...
Forum: Off Topic - General 01-21-2018, 10:43 AM
Replies: 318
Views: 6,419
Posted By classhandicapper
I'll take my chances with that book. ;)

I'll take my chances with that book. ;)
Forum: Off Topic - General 01-21-2018, 10:27 AM
Replies: 318
Views: 6,419
Posted By classhandicapper
This OLD news. When people refer to time...

This OLD news.

When people refer to time travel they are not talking about the effects of fast travel or gravity on time. They are talking about the ability to bounce back and forth THROUGH time...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-19-2018, 02:15 PM
Replies: 173
Views: 6,938
Posted By classhandicapper
I've been wondering what would happen if basic...

I've been wondering what would happen if basic PPs were a lot cheaper, but a significant investment was made in gathering better data, creating proprietary metrics, stats, and algorithms and making...
Forum: Off Topic - General 01-17-2018, 08:17 PM
Replies: 318
Views: 6,419
Posted By classhandicapper
I'm pretty sure time travel isn't possible...

I'm pretty sure time travel isn't possible otherwise everyone in our future would be doing it and I'd never find an overlay. Yet sometimes I still do. ;)
Showing results 1 to 25 of 500

 
Forum Jump
» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Is adding 30 to 60 feet to the run up for the Pegasus a good idea?
Yes, good idea - 40.00%
10 Votes
No, bad idea - 60.00%
15 Votes
Total Votes: 25
Non-members may not vote on this poll.
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:35 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2018 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed in a modern browser @ 1280x720 Resolution Or Higher
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.