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Posts Made By:
podonne
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
11-04-2012, 08:44 PM
Replies:
34
Parts of the racing form that you ignore?
Views:
4,398
Posted By
podonne
I noticed on the form it just lists the owner,...
I noticed on the form it just lists the owner, instead of giving the typical Starts-W-P-S-Win%-ROI that it does for the trainer and jockey. There aren't any stats categories in the BRIS file.
I...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
11-03-2012, 10:30 PM
Replies:
34
Parts of the racing form that you ignore?
Views:
4,398
Posted By
podonne
Parts of the racing form that you ignore?
Writing some code to produce my own past performances and I started to notice that several parts of the form don't seem to be relevant anymore. Curious which parts of the form that could be improved...
Forum:
Handicapping Software
11-01-2012, 08:18 PM
Replies:
36
Computer-Based Head-to-Head Handicapping
Views:
4,534
Posted By
podonne
True, but there are a ton more applications than...
True, but there are a ton more applications than just fine tuning neural networks. Its really powerful when faced with a huge range of solutions where you can develop a bunch of random solutions,...
Forum:
Handicapping Software
11-01-2012, 05:37 PM
Replies:
36
Computer-Based Head-to-Head Handicapping
Views:
4,534
Posted By
podonne
Fair enough. I'm sure you are using it in the...
Fair enough. I'm sure you are using it in the proper context.
Takes me back to the first time I tried something like that. Just seemed so simple. How do I know if a factor is different enough?...
Forum:
Handicapping Software
11-01-2012, 03:57 PM
Replies:
36
Computer-Based Head-to-Head Handicapping
Views:
4,534
Posted By
podonne
100 is a lot of factors! For those listening,...
100 is a lot of factors! For those listening, that's 2^100 = 1,267,650,600,228,229,401,496,703,205,376 distinct groups/masks. More than all the horses who have ever run, ever! :)
In your...
Forum:
Handicapping Software
11-01-2012, 02:43 PM
Replies:
36
Computer-Based Head-to-Head Handicapping
Views:
4,534
Posted By
podonne
What do you do when two horses in a race are in...
What do you do when two horses in a race are in the same group? Granted it might not happen very often with 2^12 groups, but it occasionally will.
Forum:
Handicapping Software
11-01-2012, 02:41 PM
Replies:
36
Computer-Based Head-to-Head Handicapping
Views:
4,534
Posted By
podonne
Its not as complicated as that. He's just saying...
Its not as complicated as that. He's just saying that he's using 12 binary factors to create 2^12 distinct groups. So every horse fits in one of 2^12 groups, so comparing all the groups against all...
Forum:
Handicapping Software
11-01-2012, 01:31 PM
Replies:
36
Computer-Based Head-to-Head Handicapping
Views:
4,534
Posted By
podonne
You probably don't need a genetic algorithm for...
You probably don't need a genetic algorithm for your approach here, even though it sounds similar. GAs are best when exploring very large search spaces, but with 2^12 factors, your search space is...
Forum:
Handicapping Software
11-01-2012, 01:26 PM
Replies:
36
Computer-Based Head-to-Head Handicapping
Views:
4,534
Posted By
podonne
Interesting post. Nice to see discussion like...
Interesting post. Nice to see discussion like this. I want to consider this in some depth, but just off the top of my head I would pay close attention to sample sizes for your groups.
You mention...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
10-26-2012, 07:14 PM
Replies:
13
Riddle me this, horseplayers and fans of racing
Views:
1,412
Posted By
podonne
I would also love to see an API access to some...
I would also love to see an API access to some ADW somewhere, like what Betfair has. Why don't they spend time on that?
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
10-26-2012, 06:42 PM
Replies:
13
Riddle me this, horseplayers and fans of racing
Views:
1,412
Posted By
podonne
It could go two ways. 1) it pulls otherwise...
It could go two ways. 1) it pulls otherwise lottery-bound money into the horse racing pools, which is good. More money in the pools, specifically when its not smart money, is a good thing.
But 2)...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
09-25-2012, 10:22 PM
Replies:
0
Anyone worked with Equibase in a professional capacity?
Views:
679
Posted By
podonne
Anyone worked with Equibase in a professional capacity?
Greetings,
I've been working on a website for handicapping, sort of a BRISnet but with less focus on selling PPs by the card and way more dynamic web-based handicapping tools, angles, systems, PP...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
08-07-2012, 08:16 PM
Replies:
11
Text mining the race conditions
Views:
2,089
Posted By
podonne
Thanks for your reply. That's what I was afraid...
Thanks for your reply. That's what I was afraid of. I've heard people talk often about the weight differential not mattering, so it was hard for me to think that allowing 2 lbs would give a...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
08-07-2012, 12:17 AM
Replies:
11
Text mining the race conditions
Views:
2,089
Posted By
podonne
Text mining the race conditions
Reading through a race book at the conditions reveals some very specific lists of eligibility and weight allowances, often more than can be expressed by a simple Alw2000N1X or by combinations of...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
08-06-2012, 11:34 PM
Replies:
45
Least well understood type of race
Views:
4,203
Posted By
podonne
So, here's the result based on an early read of...
So, here's the result based on an early read of the data (still fine tuning), based on the subset of races with the lowest impact value of being a winner. The idea being that winners win less than...
Forum:
Handicapper's Corner
08-06-2012, 02:41 PM
Replies:
24
What metric is considered when determining track level?
Views:
3,064
Posted By
podonne
Fair question. I think of it as an angle...
Fair question. I think of it as an angle handicapper, certain angles will work at lower-level tracks vs higher level tracks, or vice versa. I think it just generally gives you an idea of how good the...
Forum:
Handicapper's Corner
08-05-2012, 09:06 PM
Replies:
24
What metric is considered when determining track level?
Views:
3,064
Posted By
podonne
Now I'm actually curious why tracks like Parx...
Now I'm actually curious why tracks like Parx don't attract higher quality horses? Money's money, right?
Unless its more of a time delay thing. If the purses only rose recently, you might notice...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
08-05-2012, 08:16 PM
Replies:
45
Least well understood type of race
Views:
4,203
Posted By
podonne
OK, I rewrote the script so it measures the...
OK, I rewrote the script so it measures the "impact value of being the favorite" for all different types of races. Gonna take a while.
Just as a sanity check, can anyone confirm the IV of being a...
Forum:
Handicapper's Corner
08-05-2012, 07:30 PM
Replies:
24
What metric is considered when determining track level?
Views:
3,064
Posted By
podonne
What metric is considered when determining track level?
Several sources list a "track level" in order to tell the "Top tier" tracks apart. Curious what you consider to be the best measure of track level? Avg Purse size? Size of the pools? Some kind of...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
08-04-2012, 03:42 PM
Replies:
45
Least well understood type of race
Views:
4,203
Posted By
podonne
Perhaps not suprisingly, earlyfieldsize > 9 was...
Perhaps not suprisingly, earlyfieldsize > 9 was the biggest predictor of a high odds horse. :) Average odds of 6.3 vs 5.2 overall.
I think the impact value of being a winner might be a better...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
08-04-2012, 02:51 PM
Replies:
45
Least well understood type of race
Views:
4,203
Posted By
podonne
Average final odds is easier for my dataset but I...
Average final odds is easier for my dataset but I could get others. Which do you think is a better measure of "difficult"?
I can think of a few:
Average final odds of the winner
The...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
08-03-2012, 03:59 PM
Replies:
45
Least well understood type of race
Views:
4,203
Posted By
podonne
Allowance races seem to be a consistent theme so...
Allowance races seem to be a consistent theme so far.
Just for my own curiosity I ran a bunch of tests last night (still running) to measure the average winner's odds for various combinations of...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
08-02-2012, 11:31 PM
Replies:
45
Least well understood type of race
Views:
4,203
Posted By
podonne
Least well understood type of race
I'm guessing that 6F dirt races are a pretty well explored\understood. Mid priced claiming races at major tracks. Curious if there are type of races that are particuarily difficult to figure out...
Forum:
Handicapping Software
07-12-2012, 12:28 PM
Replies:
8
Current sources for cost effective CSV data files?
Views:
2,566
Posted By
podonne
This is very interesting. I like the CSV and the...
This is very interesting. I like the CSV and the XML format. The CSV certainly looks like the BRIS file format, which fields are missing?
Love the XML format as well. I wonder if there are things...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
07-11-2012, 01:51 AM
Replies:
23
Why do we still use Impact Values?
Views:
3,513
Posted By
podonne
Hi Mike, That is quite a thread! I hope at...
Hi Mike,
That is quite a thread! I hope at some point you will continue your instructions. I might suggest writing an article, though, to cut down on the mid-lesson distractions. :)
But,...
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