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Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

01-31-2018, 07:30 PM

Replies: 46

Impact Factor versus true probability

Views: 8,956

Posted By Overlay

As you say, the market may very well have those...

As you say, the market may very well have those factors accounted for from the standpoint of not overlooking them or omitting them, but (to me) the usefulness of the IV's is that they allow you to...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

08-21-2007, 06:32 PM

Replies: 46

Impact Factor versus true probability

Views: 8,956

Posted By Overlay

So, out of 400 horses per day, 2 have the factor...

So, out of 400 horses per day, 2 have the factor you're referring to, which would be 1/2 of 1% (0.5%) of all the horses. 25% of the horses with the factor win, which means one winner every two days...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

08-21-2007, 01:03 AM

Replies: 46

Impact Factor versus true probability

Views: 8,956

Posted By Overlay

Jeff: Thanks so much for a marvelously...

Jeff:

Thanks so much for a marvelously thorough and informative response.

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

08-20-2007, 06:48 PM

Replies: 46

Impact Factor versus true probability

Views: 8,956

Posted By Overlay

Jeff, I agree with your assessment of the value...

Jeff, I agree with your assessment of the value of hidden positives, but how long does any such factor stay hidden before it starts getting noticed and overbet, requiring you to reinvent the wheel? ...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

08-20-2007, 06:26 AM

Replies: 46

Impact Factor versus true probability

Views: 8,956

Posted By Overlay

(Sorry, I wasn't meaning to imply anything...

(Sorry, I wasn't meaning to imply anything negative about anybody's particular betting style.) The factors (and there are only three of them) that I apply to individual horses (rather than to the...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

08-19-2007, 06:47 PM

Replies: 46

Impact Factor versus true probability

Views: 8,956

Posted By Overlay

The only factors I would use as stand-alone...

The only factors I would use as stand-alone angles like that (that would not apply to all horses in a field) are those that would be sufficiently strong that they would statistically qualify as...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

08-19-2007, 06:34 PM

Replies: 46

Impact Factor versus true probability

Views: 8,956

Posted By Overlay

I, too, have difficulty with the concept (or with...

I, too, have difficulty with the concept (or with my understanding of it) of the odds themselves affecting a horse's winning chances, although Gordon Pine used it as the basis for his A/E gauge. To...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

08-19-2007, 04:06 PM

Replies: 46

Impact Factor versus true probability

Views: 8,956

Posted By Overlay

Aside from the odds-related aspect that Gordon...

Aside from the odds-related aspect that Gordon Pine mentioned, Mike Nunamaker also adjusted the impact values in his studies for the field sizes of the races in his sample. However, I don't know how...

Showing results 1 to 8 of 8

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