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Search took 0.01 seconds. Search: Posts Made By: Saratoga_Mike
Forum: Off Topic - General 09-13-2019, 10:38 AM
Replies: 2,415
Views: 298,326
Posted By Saratoga_Mike
The yield curve has a great track record of...

The yield curve has a great track record of predicting recessions. 2s/10s are un-inverted as of now, and 1s/10s are close to un-inverted. I wouldn't dismiss their message, if they start to invert...
Forum: Off Topic - General 09-13-2019, 10:30 AM
Replies: 2,415
Views: 298,326
Posted By Saratoga_Mike
GDP growth is a function of population/labor...

GDP growth is a function of population/labor force growth and productivity. The former doesn't have a bright future given demographic trends. More restrictive immigration policies could also impact...
Forum: Off Topic - General 09-12-2019, 11:05 AM
Replies: 2,415
Views: 298,326
Posted By Saratoga_Mike
I assume you realize that quote was aimed at...

I assume you realize that quote was aimed at Trump supporters.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/01/frum-trumpocracy/550685/
Forum: Off Topic - General 09-11-2019, 05:10 PM
Replies: 2,415
Views: 298,326
Posted By Saratoga_Mike
"E ciggy's? No way they should be banned...

"E ciggy's? No way they should be banned anywhere." -Tom, November 2014.

I'm sure the board owner would consider that a "gotcha," but I think it's important to show that your positions are...
Forum: Off Topic - General 09-11-2019, 02:10 PM
Replies: 2,415
Views: 298,326
Posted By Saratoga_Mike
CNN had HRC up by 5 in their last two polls...

CNN had HRC up by 5 in their last two polls before the election, according to RCP. She won by 2 points. Again, the poll was national in scope, not state-by-state.
Forum: Off Topic - General 09-11-2019, 12:48 PM
Replies: 2,415
Views: 298,326
Posted By Saratoga_Mike
@realDonaldTrump 4 hours ago "In a...

@realDonaldTrump
4 hours ago
"In a hypothetical poll, done by one of the worst pollsters of them all, the Amazon Washington Post/ABC, which predicted I would lose to Crooked Hillary by 15 points...
Forum: Off Topic - General 09-09-2019, 11:40 AM
Replies: 2,415
Views: 298,326
Posted By Saratoga_Mike
The Dem superdelegate system was put in place in...

The Dem superdelegate system was put in place in 1982. Did Bernie try to change the Dem primary system pre-2015???
Forum: Off Topic - General 08-29-2019, 06:16 PM
Replies: 2,415
Views: 298,326
Posted By Saratoga_Mike
Sure, as I said to you before, I don't think you...

Sure, as I said to you before, I don't think you can put the early years of the recession on Obama, and that's why I left the numbers out. FY08/FY09 are on GWB (fiscal years end Sept 30, as I'm...
Forum: Off Topic - General 08-29-2019, 06:00 PM
Replies: 2,415
Views: 298,326
Posted By Saratoga_Mike
Approximately 1,300 coal mining jobs have been...

Approximately 1,300 coal mining jobs have been added since Trump took office. Most of that increase was driven by exports, not a ramp in domestic demand. Every job is important, but an increase of...
Forum: Off Topic - General 08-29-2019, 05:28 PM
Replies: 2,415
Views: 298,326
Posted By Saratoga_Mike
I wanted to circle around on this. Here's...

I wanted to circle around on this. Here's non-defense discretionary spending by fiscal year (ends Sept 30).

FY12 -6.6%
FY13 -4.7%
FY14 1.0%
FY15 1.1%
FY16 2.0%
FY17 1.6%
FY18 4.7%
Forum: Off Topic - General 08-23-2019, 11:45 AM
Replies: 2,415
Views: 298,326
Posted By Saratoga_Mike
I'm not surprised. I have, too. What did they...

I'm not surprised. I have, too. What did they tell you?
Forum: Off Topic - General 08-23-2019, 11:44 AM
Replies: 2,415
Views: 298,326
Posted By Saratoga_Mike
To state the obvious, the first two years under...

To state the obvious, the first two years under Obama were horrible b/c of an inherited recession. I don't make up numbers, so I'll need to pull up years three to six for you.

Yes, agreed. ...
Forum: Off Topic - General 08-23-2019, 11:09 AM
Replies: 2,415
Views: 298,326
Posted By Saratoga_Mike
Please examine non-defense* discretionary...

Please examine non-defense* discretionary spending in Obama's last two years* in office, then compare it with Trump. As you might have gathered from my posts, I like numbers. I don't particularly...
Forum: Off Topic - General 08-23-2019, 10:44 AM
Replies: 2,415
Views: 298,326
Posted By Saratoga_Mike
Very honest post, except I think the last part is...

Very honest post, except I think the last part is incorrect. Dems embrace big govt, but most of the time they actually pay for it. Face it, there's zero fiscal discipline within the GOP when...
Forum: Off Topic - General 08-23-2019, 10:28 AM
Replies: 2,415
Views: 298,326
Posted By Saratoga_Mike
I don't think your statement is fair, but let's...

I don't think your statement is fair, but let's put that aside (please assume I'm wrong). Genuine question - have you asked a Jewish voter why he/she and most Jewish people vote for Dems?
Forum: Off Topic - General 08-22-2019, 05:29 PM
Replies: 2,415
Views: 298,326
Posted By Saratoga_Mike
If the economy stays the same or better, you're...

If the economy stays the same or better, you're 100% behind Trump? If the economy softened, would you consider someone like a Biden or Bullock? If you don't mind saying, when's the last time you...
Forum: Off Topic - General 08-21-2019, 01:20 PM
Replies: 2,415
Views: 298,326
Posted By Saratoga_Mike
Then you'll like this.... "Yes, President...

Then you'll like this....

"Yes, President Trump, when asked about his ongoing trade war with China, deemed himself "the chosen one" when talking with reporters outside the White House on...
Forum: Off Topic - General 08-21-2019, 01:15 PM
Replies: 2,415
Views: 298,326
Posted By Saratoga_Mike
Trump's re-tweet today is pretty over the top...

Trump's re-tweet today is pretty over the top (posted 6 hours ago).
Forum: Off Topic - General 08-20-2019, 04:08 PM
Replies: 2,415
Views: 298,326
Posted By Saratoga_Mike
I think he's a zerohedge reader, so cut him some...

I think he's a zerohedge reader, so cut him some slack on that.
Forum: Off Topic - General 08-20-2019, 03:13 PM
Replies: 2,415
Views: 298,326
Posted By Saratoga_Mike
Crickets on this issue from the GOP - shameful.

Crickets on this issue from the GOP - shameful.
Forum: Off Topic - General 08-20-2019, 02:10 PM
Replies: 2,415
Views: 298,326
Posted By Saratoga_Mike
Now the WSJ reporting that the WH is exploring...

Now the WSJ reporting that the WH is exploring potential tax cuts, in an attempt to thwart economic weakness....
...
Forum: Off Topic - General 08-20-2019, 11:52 AM
Replies: 2,415
Views: 298,326
Posted By Saratoga_Mike
In 2018, the channel overbought, trying to front...

In 2018, the channel overbought, trying to front run the 25% tariff on steel imports and building inventory for a 3% to 4% GDP growth economy. HRC steel (main type of steel) peaked around $925/ton,...
Forum: Off Topic - General 08-20-2019, 11:19 AM
Replies: 2,415
Views: 298,326
Posted By Saratoga_Mike
There was big-time destocking of steel in 1H19,...

There was big-time destocking of steel in 1H19, after the disti channel gorged on steel last year. It appears that the destocking ended about 6 week ago, and HRC steel (main type of steel) pricing...
Forum: Off Topic - General 08-20-2019, 10:48 AM
Replies: 2,415
Views: 298,326
Posted By Saratoga_Mike
At this point, I think the economy has settled...

At this point, I think the economy has settled back into 2% to 2.5% GDP growth, held back by excess leverage* built up over the past 50 years. In addition, GDP growth is a function of productivity...
Forum: Off Topic - General 08-19-2019, 05:04 PM
Replies: 2,415
Views: 298,326
Posted By Saratoga_Mike
White House officials eyeing payroll tax cut in...

White House officials eyeing payroll tax cut in effort to reverse weakening economy
...
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