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Search: Posts Made By: o_crunk
Forum: General Racing Discussion 05-27-2021, 04:43 PM
Replies: 7
Views: 745
Posted By o_crunk
LRF - just the lone ownership group and not in...

LRF - just the lone ownership group and not in combination with other owners, of which there are dozens - has 346 starts in my db since mid-2014. They've won 64 of those races. If you summed the...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 05-21-2021, 05:18 PM
Replies: 55
Views: 7,856
Posted By o_crunk
I've always been interested in this case over the...

I've always been interested in this case over the years. Curiously, Linda Rice is also one of the most active *owners* at the claim box at NYRA tracks. She's spent $4.55M at the claim box as an owner...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-07-2021, 12:46 PM
Replies: 36
Views: 3,143
Posted By o_crunk
AQU yesterday: AQU late P4 (CRW fueled) payout:...

AQU yesterday:
AQU late P4 (CRW fueled) payout: $2,466.75 ($207,755 pool).
AQU late P5 (non CRW fueled) payout: $2,031.25 ($234,063 pool).

Late P5 was opened up to all on 7/3/19. Comp for this...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 09-07-2020, 08:25 PM
Replies: 37
Views: 2,743
Posted By o_crunk
It's closer than many informed people would...

It's closer than many informed people would think. BEL handled $1.55M per race this spring. SAR handled $1.71M. BEL handled almost $400M over just 25 days this Spring. It's not outlandish to think...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 07-20-2020, 03:40 PM
Replies: 759
Views: 68,449
Posted By o_crunk
I don't question that NYRA is doing the right...

I don't question that NYRA is doing the right thing. I do question the behavior of people in general. I was up there last week, stopped in for lunch on my way to Sacandaga Lake. I was shocked to see...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 07-20-2020, 02:55 PM
Replies: 759
Views: 68,449
Posted By o_crunk
There are people posting on this very forum...

There are people posting on this very forum asking about what bars are open and where they can bet when they get into town. NYRA themselves have been pushing people to their preferred in-town outlets...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 07-20-2020, 02:15 PM
Replies: 759
Views: 68,449
Posted By o_crunk
BEL 4 day weeks were averaging close to $70M (not...

BEL 4 day weeks were averaging close to $70M (not counting Belmont Stakes). This with other 'A' signals in the mix. This past weekend there was only one 'A' signal - SAR. No DMR.

We will never...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 11-26-2019, 07:27 PM
Replies: 76
Views: 19,633
Posted By o_crunk
1/1/2007 - 10/18/2013 NYRA P3 Total bets -...

1/1/2007 - 10/18/2013
NYRA P3
Total bets - 11,661
Average Pool - $65,933.28
Avg Payoff - $316.09
Median Payoff - $103.50
Average Total Squares - 489
Median Total Squares - 441

10/19/2013...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 11-25-2019, 07:16 PM
Replies: 76
Views: 19,633
Posted By o_crunk
https://i.ibb.co/16c1GJW/nyra-tri1.png...

https://i.ibb.co/16c1GJW/nyra-tri1.png (https://ibb.co/SrSbw7C)

Above is NYRA avg and median TRI payoffs grouped by the number of betting interests. I've arbitrarily gone backward to 1/1/2007 to...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 06-29-2019, 08:26 AM
Replies: 124
Views: 13,637
Posted By o_crunk
Mechanicville seniors upset by graduation speaker...

Mechanicville seniors upset by graduation speaker (https://www.timesunion.com/news/article/Mechanicville-seniors-upset-by-graduation-speaker-14056139.php)

Saying it sends a "very negative...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-26-2019, 09:02 PM
Replies: 233
Views: 25,525
Posted By o_crunk
11 racing fatalities. 6 dirt, 5 turf. 8...

11 racing fatalities. 6 dirt, 5 turf.

8 training fatalities. 7 dirt, 1 "sudden death".

So 13 dirt, 5 turf.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-27-2018, 04:57 PM
Replies: 344
Views: 30,929
Posted By o_crunk
Having studied this stuff a million different...

Having studied this stuff a million different ways I'd say avg field size will help explain the different avg win pay. The slower pace races will be - on average - much smaller fields.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 09-12-2018, 06:31 AM
Replies: 98
Views: 6,236
Posted By o_crunk
That is all the horses that broke through the...

That is all the horses that broke through the gate and the chart caller noted "broke through gate" in the chart. I use $2 because that what the mutuel is based on - $2.



The "study", if you...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 09-11-2018, 09:47 PM
Replies: 98
Views: 6,236
Posted By o_crunk
Yes check the data. Do something simple like...

Yes check the data. Do something simple like sample the last 1200 horses who are racing, say, lasix free (or some such other low value move). You will certainly *not* find 300 favorites in the last...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 09-11-2018, 09:13 PM
Replies: 98
Views: 6,236
Posted By o_crunk
The ROI's are $2 not to the dollar. Expected is...

The ROI's are $2 not to the dollar. Expected is calculated using the Gordon Pine method found here (and yes, takeout is included in the calculations):

...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 09-11-2018, 03:38 PM
Replies: 98
Views: 6,236
Posted By o_crunk
Some cobbled together stats on horses breaking...

Some cobbled together stats on horses breaking through gate and having that denoted in charts. These stats go back about 10 years:

https://twitter.com/o_crunk/status/999296747548676096
Forum: General Racing Discussion 09-11-2018, 03:02 PM
Replies: 39
Views: 3,179
Posted By o_crunk
Sure, I get that. At the KEE symposium last...

Sure, I get that. At the KEE symposium last week, the MTH exec said that their nightly simulcast (after 5PM) was up 21%, which was about a $300K increase from the year-over-year period of June 16...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 09-11-2018, 01:07 PM
Replies: 39
Views: 3,179
Posted By o_crunk
In Delaware - yes as it's part of the law...

In Delaware - yes as it's part of the law allowing sports betting. In New Jersey - unknown. It's not part of the law allowing sports betting. Meaning any revenue derived by the tracks is not ear...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 09-11-2018, 12:51 PM
Replies: 39
Views: 3,179
Posted By o_crunk
There's a lot to unpack here. First thing is...

There's a lot to unpack here.

First thing is we do not know what the overall simulcast numbers look like as Monmouth has selectively been releasing numbers. Not surprisingly they've been...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 09-10-2018, 10:06 AM
Replies: 39
Views: 3,179
Posted By o_crunk
MTH has offered exchange wagering since May 2016....

MTH has offered exchange wagering since May 2016. That's over two year ago. Volume has flat lined since launch and my experience and data lead me to believe that actual handle on the exchange that...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 09-10-2018, 09:32 AM
Replies: 39
Views: 3,179
Posted By o_crunk
I would not say the early part of the meet was as...

I would not say the early part of the meet was as positive as the press made it out to be. MTH was stuffing the box with horses and their per entry was down significantly both before sports betting...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-17-2018, 05:40 PM
Replies: 173
Views: 15,039
Posted By o_crunk
47,123 horses made at least 1 start in the US in...

47,123 horses made at least 1 start in the US in 2017.

29 won $1M or more.
1,366 won $100K or more.
4,175 won $50K or more.
11,745 won $25K or more.
14,510 won $20K or more.
32,613 won less...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-17-2018, 08:49 AM
Replies: 173
Views: 15,039
Posted By o_crunk
It's more than just the pool size. It's also the...

It's more than just the pool size. It's also the combinations.

You mention SoCal. Well, sans BC, there was only *one* pick5 sequence last year at DMR and SA where there were as many combinations...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-17-2018, 06:32 AM
Replies: 173
Views: 15,039
Posted By o_crunk
The sequence went 12 x 10 x 8 x 10 x 11. It...

The sequence went 12 x 10 x 8 x 10 x 11.

It costs around $52K to buy the wager at the minimum.

The parlay was around $116K.

Average pool for P5 at OP since the wager began last year is $49K....
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-28-2017, 06:57 PM
Replies: 23
Views: 3,587
Posted By o_crunk
Through this morning, all t-bred races in the US:...

Through this morning, all t-bred races in the US:

34,923 favorites. 9,570 out of the top 3 by official position. 27.4% out of the money.
Showing results 1 to 25 of 233

 
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