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Search: Posts Made By: BCOURTNEY
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 01-29-2020, 03:11 AM
Replies: 126
Views: 28,557
Posted By BCOURTNEY
This is an excellent point, time horizons are...

This is an excellent point, time horizons are important as well. For example a player might not want to play a 30000-1 pick 6 ticket with a positive EV due to the fact the combination likelihood of...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 01-29-2020, 02:58 AM
Replies: 126
Views: 28,557
Posted By BCOURTNEY
Assumption: You agree fundamentally with the...

Assumption: You agree fundamentally with the Kelly formula.
Assumption: The win estimates are 25% for each horse and accurate

Your edges would be:

14.3% on the 7 to 1
16.7% on the 9 to 1
...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 01-24-2020, 03:59 AM
Replies: 126
Views: 28,557
Posted By BCOURTNEY
The weight of the bets is roughly your estimated...

The weight of the bets is roughly your estimated probability versus what is offered this could be determined individually on a per horse basis or as a set of probabilities versus set if odds offered....
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 01-23-2020, 06:58 AM
Replies: 126
Views: 28,557
Posted By BCOURTNEY
Claim that your estimated cumulative probability...

Claim that your estimated cumulative probability of both horses winning is X (Let's say 30%), show that the odds offered when combining both are likely to reflect X (20%), suggest weighted win bets...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 08-10-2019, 01:13 AM
Replies: 92
Views: 50,518
Posted By BCOURTNEY
2019-08-10 - Del Mar Race 7 - Rafael Bejarano :8:...

2019-08-10 - Del Mar Race 7 - Rafael Bejarano :8: LYNNES LEGACY. If you watch the whole race, first turn chooses the rail instead of taking wide on the first turn, saves ground, conserves energy,...
Forum: Advance Deposit Wagering (ADW) 06-05-2019, 06:54 AM
Replies: 20
Views: 3,299
Posted By BCOURTNEY
At least you have competitive market forces with...

At least you have competitive market forces with parimutuel, regardless of source.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 06-04-2019, 05:05 PM
Replies: 170
Views: 36,267
Posted By BCOURTNEY
He was a hot head, and so I think the folks...

He was a hot head, and so I think the folks funding the research should yank him off the project, makes more sense than forwarding the idea participants should be kicked out for not receiving timely...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 06-04-2019, 04:45 PM
Replies: 170
Views: 36,267
Posted By BCOURTNEY
Do you represent KPK research are you an agent or...

Do you represent KPK research are you an agent or employee?
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 06-04-2019, 04:34 PM
Replies: 170
Views: 36,267
Posted By BCOURTNEY
I've never spoken with you on twitter, and I'm...

I've never spoken with you on twitter, and I'm done here as well.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 06-04-2019, 04:17 PM
Replies: 170
Views: 36,267
Posted By BCOURTNEY
They failed to follow up yet again in a specified...

They failed to follow up yet again in a specified time frame they provided. I'm calling it out because they continue to fail to provide timely updates, not payment mind you, just an update and that...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 06-04-2019, 03:20 PM
Replies: 170
Views: 36,267
Posted By BCOURTNEY
It's (was) time to write checks and mail them,...

It's (was) time to write checks and mail them, takes 1 business day.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 06-04-2019, 03:15 PM
Replies: 170
Views: 36,267
Posted By BCOURTNEY
Does anyone have the physical address for this...

Does anyone have the physical address for this organization or know what state it is registered in?

Thanks
Forum: General Racing Discussion 06-03-2019, 08:51 PM
Replies: 43
Views: 4,000
Posted By BCOURTNEY
Great so they will lower takeout and use the...

Great so they will lower takeout and use the increased handle to boost purse and put in the long term fix right?
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 06-03-2019, 08:50 PM
Replies: 170
Views: 36,267
Posted By BCOURTNEY
So everyone got paid and the AI research...

So everyone got paid and the AI research continues, right?

:popcorn:
Forum: General Racing Discussion 06-01-2019, 04:46 AM
Replies: 205
Views: 23,691
Posted By BCOURTNEY
It's like the difference between a reasonable...

It's like the difference between a reasonable doubt and beyond a shadow of a doubt.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 05-31-2019, 02:04 PM
Replies: 205
Views: 23,691
Posted By BCOURTNEY
What would be good is making the equine injury...

What would be good is making the equine injury database available for public use and research, crowd sourcing works out hard problems all the time. There is a lot of free horsepower in the public...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 05-30-2019, 09:26 PM
Replies: 205
Views: 23,691
Posted By BCOURTNEY
Why not just amputate the California infection...

Why not just amputate the California infection and all that goes with it from racing altogether, is it really that hard to imagine a life in racing after California and TSG? It sounds like a smoother...
Forum: Advance Deposit Wagering (ADW) 05-30-2019, 09:22 PM
Replies: 20
Views: 3,299
Posted By BCOURTNEY
What stops the security firms from snooping on...

What stops the security firms from snooping on the hot teams and betting with or against them? Who audits the auditors?
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 03-22-2019, 05:06 AM
Replies: 24
Views: 4,495
Posted By BCOURTNEY
Would be interesting if these stats were...

Would be interesting if these stats were controlled for and broken down by odds groups.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-19-2019, 10:35 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 1,768
Posted By BCOURTNEY
Pseudo or real r2?

Pseudo or real r2?
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-16-2019, 07:56 AM
Replies: 46
Views: 7,010
Posted By BCOURTNEY
25th is serious business.. :ThmbUp: Congrats...

25th is serious business.. :ThmbUp: Congrats Blake & excellent job.
Very cool.:)[/QUOTE]

Thanks for the support in this thread. I really enjoyed the competition and it was a great way to stress...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-25-2018, 10:45 AM
Replies: 30
Views: 2,881
Posted By BCOURTNEY
Jay how are we to interpret this data?

Jay how are we to interpret this data?
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-05-2018, 03:10 AM
Replies: 344
Views: 40,068
Posted By BCOURTNEY
Yeah, it's sad I'm guessing she is scared,...

Yeah, it's sad I'm guessing she is scared, because you get nasty sores in your mouth and in the gums and on your body :(. I was given a Neupogen shot (bone marrow booster) when I got an ANC of 0...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-05-2018, 12:30 AM
Replies: 344
Views: 40,068
Posted By BCOURTNEY
Thoughts for the family and her ANC a rapid...

Thoughts for the family and her ANC a rapid increase!
Forum: General Racing Discussion 12-02-2018, 10:51 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 2,094
Posted By BCOURTNEY
Nothing odd about it, just watching the owners...

Nothing odd about it, just watching the owners trying to smash a square peg into a circular hole. I will miss betting against.
Showing results 1 to 25 of 500

 
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