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Search: Posts Made By: classhandicapper
Forum: Off Topic - General Today, 12:54 PM
Replies: 1,259
Views: 40,340
Posted By classhandicapper
We were DRAMATICALLLY UNDERCOUNTING the case...

We were DRAMATICALLLY UNDERCOUNTING the case count in the beginning because of lack of testing capacity. So we overestimated the death rate. Plus, Cuomo and the boys already killed 10s of thousands...
Forum: Off Topic - General Today, 12:49 PM
Replies: 1,259
Views: 40,340
Posted By classhandicapper
The testing/case relationship is partly a chicken...

The testing/case relationship is partly a chicken and egg issue.

Only a complete fool (and we know who I am talking about) would deny that we had massively more cases than we recorded back in...
Forum: General Racing Discussion Today, 10:55 AM
Replies: 237
Views: 16,076
Posted By classhandicapper
I'm not a vet and know less than nothing about...

I'm not a vet and know less than nothing about these drugs and treatments, but it seems to me like there are two distinct problems.

1. Guys that are using illegal drugs or methods to enhance...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion Today, 10:07 AM
Replies: 120
Views: 8,046
Posted By classhandicapper
It would be interesting to see which factors...

It would be interesting to see which factors Benter analyzed independently and how he incorporated the public odds.

I recently had a brief conversation with someone on Twitter that developed a...
Forum: General Racing Discussion Today, 09:29 AM
Replies: 30
Views: 1,038
Posted By classhandicapper
:lol: I do, but not by stretching out high...

:lol:

I do, but not by stretching out high priced claimers.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion Yesterday, 07:01 PM
Replies: 120
Views: 8,046
Posted By classhandicapper
Yes. Let's take an very simple example. ...

Yes.

Let's take an very simple example.

I don't want to give out specific names, but there are some trainers that have very big reputations whose record in recent years has been terrible. ...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion Yesterday, 06:41 PM
Replies: 120
Views: 8,046
Posted By classhandicapper
I think we all agree that if you build an odds...

I think we all agree that if you build an odds lines model you will sometimes be missing information about the horses that is built into the public odds. So some of the overlays your model flashes...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion Yesterday, 11:26 AM
Replies: 120
Views: 8,046
Posted By classhandicapper
As usual I agree with everything you are saying. ...

As usual I agree with everything you are saying.

Maybe some of the whales are at the stage where they are betting some races with the expectation of very small long term losses even with rebate...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion Yesterday, 10:45 AM
Replies: 120
Views: 8,046
Posted By classhandicapper
I'm not talking about finding a group of horses...

I'm not talking about finding a group of horses that wins x% of the time and then betting longer odds ones based on that win%. That would be the kind of mistake you make the first week you are...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-23-2020, 07:09 PM
Replies: 40
Views: 2,025
Posted By classhandicapper
I understand that the dynamics and time matter,...

I understand that the dynamics and time matter, but each horse will react differently to the same exact dynamics based partially on their natural speed and partially on their stamina.

I used the...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-23-2020, 03:10 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 1,038
Posted By classhandicapper
I'm not even sure The Marathon should be Graded....

I'm not even sure The Marathon should be Graded. At best it's typically a Grade 3.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-23-2020, 03:02 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 1,038
Posted By classhandicapper
We'll have to agree to disagree. 1. I think...

We'll have to agree to disagree.

1. I think if you look at the average Grade 1 race throughout the year the BC Mile has been a Grade 1 caliber race. It's not nearly as high a quality race as the...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-23-2020, 02:32 PM
Replies: 120
Views: 8,046
Posted By classhandicapper
Right. That's why I've been saying winning...

Right.

That's why I've been saying winning is not so much about making an odds line for every horses as it is about finding situations where the public tends to screw up.

At first Benter...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-23-2020, 10:17 AM
Replies: 40
Views: 2,025
Posted By classhandicapper
Even though this was an obvious example, I'm not...

Even though this was an obvious example, I'm not sure it made my point well.

Imagine a horse that closes extremely well at 9F and 10F but today's distance is 12F. His late rating might look...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-23-2020, 09:33 AM
Replies: 40
Views: 2,025
Posted By classhandicapper
I hear what you are are saying. I guess in...

I hear what you are are saying.

I guess in my ideal world I am also trying to get at what I would consider a more pure stamina rating. It would be like an overall assessment of both the horse's...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-23-2020, 08:48 AM
Replies: 120
Views: 8,046
Posted By classhandicapper
This is exactly the way I think about it except...

This is exactly the way I think about it except without actually doing the math to create an odds line for every horse anymore.

I usually start by having a horse in mind to key on or against...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-22-2020, 03:28 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 846
Posted By classhandicapper
Does "Oaks Day" mean a horse in the Kentucky Oaks...

Does "Oaks Day" mean a horse in the Kentucky Oaks or some other horse that ran that day?
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-22-2020, 09:19 AM
Replies: 30
Views: 1,038
Posted By classhandicapper
You can't have it both ways. You can't say...

You can't have it both ways.

You can't say the Dirt Mile is not a Grade 1 event (which it clearly is) and complain that too many Grade 1 winners are skipping the Classic and Sprint to run in the...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-21-2020, 11:49 AM
Replies: 30
Views: 1,038
Posted By classhandicapper
I think the BC Mile still deserves Grade 1...

I think the BC Mile still deserves Grade 1 status.

I think it's more a matter of it not being anywhere near the caliber of the Classic. I consider the Classic to be more like a Grade 1+ or Grade...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-21-2020, 09:09 AM
Replies: 30
Views: 1,038
Posted By classhandicapper
I'm disappointed about the way things are going...

I'm disappointed about the way things are going for this horse. I had reason to feel confident he was even better than he looked on paper. But once he went bad, it started feeling more like that...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-20-2020, 03:00 PM
Replies: 120
Views: 8,046
Posted By classhandicapper
I don't have a problem with that approach other...

I don't have a problem with that approach other than I've always found it difficult to separate random hot and cold streaks from legitimate issues that could impact a trainers results.

For...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-20-2020, 10:30 AM
Replies: 81
Views: 4,928
Posted By classhandicapper
I don't buy this argument at all. Countless...

I don't buy this argument at all.

Countless horses that formerly would have lost are now going to win.

The only difference is that the horses that are going to win now are the ones that are...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-20-2020, 09:09 AM
Replies: 120
Views: 8,046
Posted By classhandicapper
I understand that the final odds are fairly...

I understand that the final odds are fairly efficient and that the collective mind of all horse players (which includes sophisticated computer models, better informed insiders, and a lot of very...
Forum: Off Topic - General 10-20-2020, 08:22 AM
Replies: 1,259
Views: 40,340
Posted By classhandicapper
Revisiting Hydroxychloroquine This is worth...

Revisiting Hydroxychloroquine

This is worth a read mostly because it's a fairly accurate and complete report of what happened and makes no claim whether it actually works or not.
...
Forum: Off Topic - General 10-19-2020, 05:19 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 482
Posted By classhandicapper
I think a lot of the Jewish support for the...

I think a lot of the Jewish support for the democrats stems from the Civil Rights fights of the 50s and 60s and how the parties evolved over time. The left eventually became more activist in fighting...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 500

 
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