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Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

10-25-2022, 02:34 PM

Replies: 131

Poll: Pace Handicappers: Do You Use Energy Distribution?

Views: 23,459

Posted By classhandicapper

That's what I'm interested in also. I'm trying...

That's what I'm interested in also. I'm trying to measure the past more accurately.

The complexity for me is that each horse is different in terms of how it reacts to various pace and flow...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

10-23-2022, 10:28 AM

Replies: 131

Poll: Pace Handicappers: Do You Use Energy Distribution?

Views: 23,459

Posted By classhandicapper

I’m talking about something more subtle. ...

I’m talking about something more subtle.

Let’s say we have 3 horses. They all ran 22 - 45 - 110 last time out and that’s typical of their recent performances.

Numerically they all ran the...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

10-22-2022, 10:16 AM

Replies: 131

Poll: Pace Handicappers: Do You Use Energy Distribution?

Views: 23,459

Posted By classhandicapper

One one the problems I have with thinking along...

One one the problems I have with thinking along these lines is that every horse is different. I like Baffert’s use of the term “cruising speed”. What he’s talking about is how fast the horse can run...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

10-11-2022, 07:34 PM

Replies: 131

Poll: Pace Handicappers: Do You Use Energy Distribution?

Views: 23,459

Posted By classhandicapper

I think our disagreement is more about betting...

I think our disagreement is more about betting patterns than handicapping.

It could be because we are looking at different types of races.

My Formulator notes are mostly focused on high...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

10-11-2022, 03:42 PM

Replies: 131

Poll: Pace Handicappers: Do You Use Energy Distribution?

Views: 23,459

Posted By classhandicapper

Rubber stamping implies making no effort to...

Rubber stamping implies making no effort to understand what happened by watching the race and looking at the competition. That's not what I am doing. I am simply not just rubber stamping the...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

10-11-2022, 02:17 PM

Replies: 131

Poll: Pace Handicappers: Do You Use Energy Distribution?

Views: 23,459

Posted By classhandicapper

There are no certainties in this game. You...

There are no certainties in this game.

You don't always know if you are dealing with a very good horse that just happened to catch a soft trip or a mediocre horses that took advantage of one, but...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

09-19-2022, 01:55 PM

Replies: 131

Poll: Pace Handicappers: Do You Use Energy Distribution?

Views: 23,459

Posted By classhandicapper

Keep in mind, this is an automated metric. ...

Keep in mind, this is an automated metric.

I did some studies years back and found that if I went back past a certain point the incremental information added almost no predictive value at all. ...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

09-19-2022, 12:03 PM

Replies: 131

Poll: Pace Handicappers: Do You Use Energy Distribution?

Views: 23,459

Posted By classhandicapper

I do almost the same thing with some of my...

I do almost the same thing with some of my automated running style metrics.

I look at exactly 4 races, I throw out the worst one, use the remaining 3, and weight them more towards the recent...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

09-19-2022, 11:58 AM

Replies: 131

Poll: Pace Handicappers: Do You Use Energy Distribution?

Views: 23,459

Posted By classhandicapper

I try to do that also. I'm less worried about...

I try to do that also. I'm less worried about some horse that got loose in a soft pace last time if I've already seen him run well in a highly competitive hot paced race loaded with quality. ...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

09-01-2022, 03:46 PM

Replies: 131

Poll: Pace Handicappers: Do You Use Energy Distribution?

Views: 23,459

Posted By classhandicapper

I'm fairly convinced measuring "energy" and the...

I'm fairly convinced measuring "energy" and the demands of the race/distance/surface is the way, light, and truth, but I'm less sure the commonly used formulas are complete and getting it right (not...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

08-12-2022, 11:31 AM

Replies: 131

Poll: Pace Handicappers: Do You Use Energy Distribution?

Views: 23,459

Posted By classhandicapper

IMO, you have to be careful with pace line...

IMO, you have to be careful with pace line selection.

If you explain why almost any horse won, you can find a reason using pace line selection. But you don't want to build biases into your...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

08-12-2022, 09:13 AM

Replies: 131

Poll: Pace Handicappers: Do You Use Energy Distribution?

Views: 23,459

Posted By classhandicapper

I understand what you are saying. You are trying...

I understand what you are saying. You are trying to find horses that match the demands of the track and conditions of the race. But there must also be a way to use the internals to evaluate...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

08-10-2022, 03:13 PM

Replies: 131

Poll: Pace Handicappers: Do You Use Energy Distribution?

Views: 23,459

Posted By classhandicapper

I always felt like "energy distribution" combined...

I always felt like "energy distribution" combined with "track profiles" should be the Holy Grail, but I never came across an energy distribution formula I felt worked as well pace figures where a...

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