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Search: Posts Made By: JerryBoyle
Forum: General Racing Discussion 04-10-2018, 10:07 AM
Replies: 738
Views: 93,975
Posted By JerryBoyle
This would be so great. The product would be...

This would be so great. The product would be improved in countless ways. Someone needs to get on the inside and start making moves
Forum: General Racing Discussion 04-09-2018, 03:13 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 93,975
Posted By JerryBoyle
I agree with this 100%. They have significant...

I agree with this 100%. They have significant edge
Forum: General Racing Discussion 04-09-2018, 01:26 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 93,975
Posted By JerryBoyle
Only if you think it's because odds aren't...

Only if you think it's because odds aren't updated in real time. But that's not really unfair, as we're all subject to it. I coudl be wrong, but I don't think a large betting team will know...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 04-09-2018, 01:25 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 93,975
Posted By JerryBoyle
Meant to say there's *no* rule or obstruction...

Meant to say there's *no* rule or obstruction that prevents, my bad.

Whether batch wagering is good for the game or not, I've not given it any thought
Forum: General Racing Discussion 04-09-2018, 12:47 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 93,975
Posted By JerryBoyle
The difference is that the public isn't currently...

The difference is that the public isn't currently being unfairly shut out. All of us have the technology, if we want, to place large # of wagers as late as possible. There's rule or obstruction...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 04-09-2018, 11:25 AM
Replies: 738
Views: 93,975
Posted By JerryBoyle
Agreed that it's crazy that it takes 30s for...

Agreed that it's crazy that it takes 30s for wagers to make it's way through to the screen. But let's say some team drops a huge wager 30s prior to off time and you see it in 5s. Will you...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 04-09-2018, 11:03 AM
Replies: 738
Views: 93,975
Posted By JerryBoyle
Yeah, understood. Although I think you mean the...

Yeah, understood. Although I think you mean the problem is 40% of the pool is missing after most people (smaller bettors) can bet. Or another way, 40% is missing up until 30s or less before betting...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 04-09-2018, 09:06 AM
Replies: 738
Views: 93,975
Posted By JerryBoyle
Assuming that betting is closed 2 minutes prior...

Assuming that betting is closed 2 minutes prior to the start of the race, you still bet this horse at 9/, and this runner's odds were 9/2 at the time the runners were loaded to the gate, would you be...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 04-07-2018, 11:40 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 93,975
Posted By JerryBoyle
Don't some ADW's already provide conditional...

Don't some ADW's already provide conditional wagering? I've never used it so I've got no idea how it works, but I thought I've seen it advertised
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-27-2018, 05:12 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 93,975
Posted By JerryBoyle
Seems reasonably consistent with the argument...

Seems reasonably consistent with the argument that a team liked the 11 in 11 but wasn't sure about the 10 in 10.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-27-2018, 04:53 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 93,975
Posted By JerryBoyle
This is the last snap I have. I believe it's...

This is the last snap I have. I believe it's close.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 \
1 52.0 172.0 45.0 47.0 31.0 337.0 48.0 109.0 ...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-27-2018, 04:10 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 93,975
Posted By JerryBoyle
$1 Pgm 0 94.9 1 1 417.7 2 2 ...

$1 Pgm
0 94.9 1
1 417.7 2
2 117.7 3
3 119.1 4
4 59.7 5
5 670.8 6
6 107.9 7
7 199.6 8
8 191.2 9
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-27-2018, 03:35 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 93,975
Posted By JerryBoyle
For those who have large enough bankrolls, maybe...

For those who have large enough bankrolls, maybe it's time to start hammering your runner(s) at something like 4 or 3 mtp. Take the big guys out of the game altogether. Either they would have liked...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-27-2018, 12:02 AM
Replies: 738
Views: 93,975
Posted By JerryBoyle
Perhaps. TBH, I don't know, because I'm sure...

Perhaps. TBH, I don't know, because I'm sure bookies would be modeling their own lines to exploit weak players. How that trades off, I've got no idea. I think it'd help with perception for the...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-26-2018, 11:48 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 93,975
Posted By JerryBoyle
I get what you're saying, and I don't have proof...

I get what you're saying, and I don't have proof one way or the other. Personally, I don't find it as shocking that someone could arrive at that price using only publicly available data. That said,...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-26-2018, 04:02 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 93,975
Posted By JerryBoyle
FWIW, the implied probability from the daily...

FWIW, the implied probability from the daily double payoff grid from race 10 for Runaway Ghost was .1396 vs a final implied probability of abt .164. Much closer than the implied probability at 1...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-22-2018, 11:33 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 93,975
Posted By JerryBoyle
Agree completely. Exchange betting seems like...

Agree completely. Exchange betting seems like the best of both worlds between fixed odds through a book and pari mutuel betting. You'll know your odds ahead of time and you won't be limited in the...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-22-2018, 05:55 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 93,975
Posted By JerryBoyle
Most importantly, it does not give you access to...

Most importantly, it does not give you access to any tri/super/p3/etc matrices
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-22-2018, 05:53 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 93,975
Posted By JerryBoyle
From Dave's description, I don't think you got...

From Dave's description, I don't think you got any special or new data that you couldn't get by scraping an ADW's site. You just get it at the time it's being aggregated from all tracks before being...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-15-2018, 02:07 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 93,975
Posted By JerryBoyle
This is interesting. Dave, what do you think are...

This is interesting. Dave, what do you think are the missing pieces preventing you from reaching that level? What resources? If it's a manpower issue, could you hire others, or do you not see the...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-15-2018, 02:05 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 93,975
Posted By JerryBoyle
Sorry, wasn't trying to say that you in...

Sorry, wasn't trying to say that you in particular are a losing player. Was directed at those are losing and blame it on some disadvantage outside of their control rather than not being as good as...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-15-2018, 02:03 PM
Replies: 738
Views: 93,975
Posted By JerryBoyle
Ok, I accept that there is some tote api to which...

Ok, I accept that there is some tote api to which I don't have access, though seems like I could if I'm willing to pay. That said, take it away and just have the teams access the odds via scraping...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-15-2018, 10:16 AM
Replies: 738
Views: 93,975
Posted By JerryBoyle
What does this mean? It's repeated over and over...

What does this mean? It's repeated over and over and over and over again
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-15-2018, 08:47 AM
Replies: 738
Views: 93,975
Posted By JerryBoyle
What does this magical consul look like? Is it...

What does this magical consul look like? Is it actually a consul like a bloomberg terminal? Is it software? Does it pull in all tote companies? You've made this claim before, and you're the only...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-15-2018, 08:43 AM
Replies: 738
Views: 93,975
Posted By JerryBoyle
Part of handicapping is estimating the price...

Part of handicapping is estimating the price you'll be getting, sizing your bets appropriately, and planning when to bet. To counter your example, simply bet the price down to what you think is fair...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 31

 
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