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Posts Made By:
classhandicapper
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
Today, 11:05 AM
Replies:
70
Full 2023 Dataset available at no charge
Views:
4,980
Posted By
classhandicapper
DRF Formulator has files you can download pre...
DRF Formulator has files you can download pre race.
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
Today, 09:18 AM
Replies:
38
beyond complexity ?
Views:
1,642
Posted By
classhandicapper
I leave the odds analysis separate from the flow...
I leave the odds analysis separate from the flow metrics.
The public will adjust the odds based on the expected flow. So maybe those 8-1 or 10-1 or even 15-1 speed horses that didn't last on...
Forum:
**TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL**
Yesterday, 09:33 AM
Replies:
31
Derby Race Shape
Views:
1,640
Posted By
classhandicapper
I hate horses like Fierceness. I don't know...
I hate horses like Fierceness.
I don't know how good he is.
I have reason to believe all 3 of his wins were not quite as good as they look but his 2 losses were clearly not as bad as they...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
Yesterday, 09:27 AM
Replies:
64
Pimlico rebuild becomes reality
Views:
4,124
Posted By
classhandicapper
Ultimately you have to make a choice. Do...
Ultimately you have to make a choice.
Do you want draw bigger crowds for marquee races but risk the purse money going to NY or other out of town trainers or do you want 2nd tier racing?
...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
04-17-2024, 05:09 PM
Replies:
38
beyond complexity ?
Views:
1,642
Posted By
classhandicapper
Jeff, I think what you are suggesting is...
Jeff,
I think what you are suggesting is similar to what I am suggesting.
It almost has to start out subjective.
Again, I started with an analysis of the thousands of charts to find...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
04-17-2024, 03:24 PM
Replies:
38
beyond complexity ?
Views:
1,642
Posted By
classhandicapper
If you looking to refine it past the more...
If you looking to refine it past the more generalized favored the front or favored the back, I don't think that's much of an issue from analyzing the chart. It would just involve looking at middle...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
04-17-2024, 02:11 PM
Replies:
38
beyond complexity ?
Views:
1,642
Posted By
classhandicapper
I suddenly understand what you are asking for. ...
I suddenly understand what you are asking for.
I am doing exactly what you are asking.
The first step is to analyze the chart systematically. You can apparently already do that. :ThmbUp:
...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
04-16-2024, 06:12 PM
Replies:
38
beyond complexity ?
Views:
1,642
Posted By
classhandicapper
Got it. You also need some objective...
Got it.
You also need some objective measurement of the strength of the field to go along with it. You can either look fractions and final time or the quality of the horses in the race...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
04-16-2024, 02:00 PM
Replies:
38
beyond complexity ?
Views:
1,642
Posted By
classhandicapper
I'd say horses are more lkely to run back to...
I'd say horses are more lkely to run back to their typically preferred running styles and positions than their prior fractions. The fractions vary depending on the makeup of the field and how many...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
04-15-2024, 04:32 PM
Replies:
64
Pimlico rebuild becomes reality
Views:
4,124
Posted By
classhandicapper
I hear what you are saying, but for me it's the...
I hear what you are saying, but for me it's the opposite. I live near Belmont. The main reason I go to the Haskell is because I can stay on the Jersey shore and have a great long weekend of food and...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
04-15-2024, 04:24 PM
Replies:
64
Pimlico rebuild becomes reality
Views:
4,124
Posted By
classhandicapper
Absolutely I had a great time in town when I...
Absolutely
I had a great time in town when I went to Oaklawn.
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
04-15-2024, 04:23 PM
Replies:
10
Pride Of Jenni - wow!
Views:
786
Posted By
classhandicapper
That was my visual impression also. I know less...
That was my visual impression also. I know less than nothing about what the typical fractions are there relative to that final time, how the track was playing, or what the other horses are capable...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
04-15-2024, 08:01 AM
Replies:
64
Pimlico rebuild becomes reality
Views:
4,124
Posted By
classhandicapper
I didn't know much of that early story. ...
I didn't know much of that early story.
I've been saying for a long time that imo the best formula for success going forward will be the tracks that can combine quality racing with it being a...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
04-15-2024, 07:40 AM
Replies:
10
Pride Of Jenni - wow!
Views:
786
Posted By
classhandicapper
:ThmbUp: They were probably operating under...
:ThmbUp:
They were probably operating under the assumption she would tire and come back to the pack. It's odd that they would go slower than usual though. Most of the time, you just want the horse...
Forum:
**TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL**
04-14-2024, 11:20 AM
Replies:
2
Sierra Leone
Views:
335
Posted By
classhandicapper
I think he's been in some of the better quality...
I think he's been in some of the better quality preps (which may not be saying a lot). He's been such a deep closer, I'd be more concerned about his early position in a large field and the pace than...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
04-14-2024, 09:24 AM
Replies:
64
Pimlico rebuild becomes reality
Views:
4,124
Posted By
classhandicapper
I know we are all racing fans, but I'm having a...
I know we are all racing fans, but I'm having a tough time figuring out why 100s of millions of dollars are being spent on new facilities for an industry that's dying in the US despite 100s of...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
04-13-2024, 10:36 AM
Replies:
3
Some Friday Morning Musings
Views:
532
Posted By
classhandicapper
There's a noticeable shift of quality in progress...
There's a noticeable shift of quality in progress from everywhere else to Kentucky, FG and OP with Saratoga being the one major obvious exception and we'll see what happens in CA at DMR longer term. ...
Forum:
**TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL**
04-12-2024, 09:11 AM
Replies:
6
Just a Touch, This Year's Mage?
Views:
474
Posted By
classhandicapper
Just a Touch ran an interesting race in the...
Just a Touch ran an interesting race in the Bluegrass. He stalked a very fast pace and held well. One could argue he was best that day on a pace adjusted basis. But if you look at all the horses...
Forum:
Off Topic - General
04-11-2024, 06:42 PM
Replies:
64
polls say things breaking Biden's way
Views:
1,910
Posted By
classhandicapper
I have no idea what he's going to get, but I'd...
I have no idea what he's going to get, but I'd bet almost anything he gets more black and Hispanic votes % wise this time than last time or the time before that.
What I have less confidence in...
Forum:
Off Topic - General
04-11-2024, 06:36 PM
Replies:
853
Yep….take that vax
Views:
82,074
Posted By
classhandicapper
Very sorry to hear about that.
Very sorry to hear about that.
Forum:
Off Topic - General
04-11-2024, 06:33 PM
Replies:
853
Yep….take that vax
Views:
82,074
Posted By
classhandicapper
CDC says study indicates Covid Vaccines do NOT...
CDC says study indicates Covid Vaccines do NOT cause sudden death from cardiac issues
...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
04-10-2024, 07:54 PM
Replies:
50
Keeneland lowers DD takeout to 15% from 22%
Views:
3,058
Posted By
classhandicapper
Right, I was just trying to make the point that...
Right, I was just trying to make the point that once you know the winner of the exacta, that's one less horse in the race that can come in 2nd.
Poindexter made the point better. There are fewer...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
04-10-2024, 02:23 PM
Replies:
50
Keeneland lowers DD takeout to 15% from 22%
Views:
3,058
Posted By
classhandicapper
This is how I am visualizing it. Imagine 2...
This is how I am visualizing it.
Imagine 2 fields of 8.
The double is 1 out of 8 parlayed to 1 out of 8.
The exacta is kind of 1/8 (top horse) parlayed to 1 out of 7 (for 2nd) where the...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
04-10-2024, 12:52 PM
Replies:
50
Keeneland lowers DD takeout to 15% from 22%
Views:
3,058
Posted By
classhandicapper
I agree. I tend to favor exactas because I...
I agree.
I tend to favor exactas because I have so few opinions where I feel confident I am getting good value, there are even fewer opportunities for me to hook value to value horizontally to...
Forum:
General Racing Discussion
04-10-2024, 08:53 AM
Replies:
50
Keeneland lowers DD takeout to 15% from 22%
Views:
3,058
Posted By
classhandicapper
In theory the double should pay more. The...
In theory the double should pay more.
The double is win to win.
The exacta can be thought of similar as win to win "if the real winner wasn't in the race". So it's also a kind of parlay but...
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