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Search took 0.07 seconds. Search: Posts Made By: Rick Ransom
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-31-2001, 09:27 AM
Replies: 13
Views: 1,803
Posted By Rick Ransom
I use an old rule of thumb (call it the 2, 4, 6,...

I use an old rule of thumb (call it the 2, 4, 6, 8 rule) which assumes that the odds go up by two for each choice starting at 2-1. So, it's 2-1, 4-1, 6-1, 8-1, which would be 33.3%, 20.0%, 14.3%,...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-26-2001, 02:55 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 2,588
Posted By Rick Ransom
Another interesting exacta strategy I've read...

Another interesting exacta strategy I've read about is to select horses that have finished close to one another in previous races. The theory is that they have compatible running styles. Although I...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-26-2001, 10:07 AM
Replies: 19
Views: 2,588
Posted By Rick Ransom
The best simple way of playing exactas (not...

The best simple way of playing exactas (not considering odds) with my selections has been to play the top choice on top with 2nd and 3rd choices on the bottom and 2nd choice on top with 3rd choice on...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-21-2001, 01:35 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 1,226
Posted By Rick Ransom
Richard, I think that is a good approach if...

Richard,

I think that is a good approach if the top two selections of your method are both close to break-even (not considering odds). If you can get 50% wins with two horses at 3-1 or better you...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-19-2001, 05:35 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 1,696
Posted By Rick Ransom
If anyone is interested, I found a reference to...

If anyone is interested, I found a reference to an article in College Mathematics Journal from 1990 called "Longest Run of Heads" Mark Schilling that seems to answer this question. I don't have...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-09-2001, 02:03 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 1,696
Posted By Rick Ransom
General, The formula you mentioned is the...

General,

The formula you mentioned is the same as that proposed by Dick Mitchell in "Commonsense Betting". In comparing the values from this formula with his 99% confidence level values elsewhere...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-09-2001, 01:36 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 1,189
Posted By Rick Ransom
General, This type of analysis would be...

General,

This type of analysis would be accurate if the only variance was in win percentage and the payoffs were constant. That is clearly not the case in the real world. Payoffs for any...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-06-2001, 04:27 PM
Replies: 36
Views: 3,677
Posted By Rick Ransom
Fortunehunter, One standard deviation (plus...

Fortunehunter,

One standard deviation (plus and minus) should contain about 68% of the occurrences (not 90%) in a normal distribution. Of course when you have a fixed lower bound of zero, it...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-15-2001, 05:00 PM
Replies: 7
Views: 1,435
Posted By Rick Ransom
Lefty and Tom, Excellent advice! I always...

Lefty and Tom,

Excellent advice! I always say that you should play with "other people's money" if you can. Risk very little and let the system prove itself out. If it's really good it'll keep...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-15-2001, 04:41 PM
Replies: 1
Views: 950
Posted By Rick Ransom
I look at probability as a measurement of...

I look at probability as a measurement of ignorance. When any additional confounding factors are added we come closer to ignorance, which to us appears to be random chance. Take a race with 8...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-15-2001, 04:23 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 1,710
Posted By Rick Ransom
alyingthief, The tradeoff between using a...

alyingthief,

The tradeoff between using a sample that is large enough and one that is specific enough to the situation is, I think, the biggest dilemma in testing horses racing systems or methods....
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-15-2001, 01:21 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 1,710
Posted By Rick Ransom
alyingthing, Bias may be the reason that...

alyingthing,

Bias may be the reason that many speed-oriented methods are improved by using the best recent race over today's track. That doesn't help you much during the first couple of weeks of...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-03-2001, 04:51 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 1,710
Posted By Rick Ransom
Tom, I have to agree with you as far as...

Tom,

I have to agree with you as far as trainer angles are concerned; two or three wins usually establishes a pattern, then it goes away. I haven't found that short term track bias was worth...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-03-2001, 04:42 PM
Replies: 1
Views: 773
Posted By Rick Ransom
takeout, The "wise guys" have a long history...

takeout,

The "wise guys" have a long history of involvement in Arizona. Glick was the mob puppet that ran the Stardust when the real-life equivalent of the movie "Casino" occurred in Las Vegas. ...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-03-2001, 12:38 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 1,710
Posted By Rick Ransom
My opinion is that you should use a minimum...

My opinion is that you should use a minimum number of wins rather than a minimum number of races. For example if you use 100 wins as the minimum, you'd need 500 races for a 20% method but 1000 races...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-29-2001, 01:50 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 4,021
Posted By Rick Ransom
BIG HIT, Thanks for the reply. What I'm...

BIG HIT,

Thanks for the reply. What I'm really looking for is some ROI data to back up the theory, but I realize this would be practically impossible with most databases. As to female trainers,...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-28-2001, 01:05 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 4,021
Posted By Rick Ransom
Does anyone happen to know if female jockeys are...

Does anyone happen to know if female jockeys are underbet as a group. It might be necessary to look at favorites or low odds horses only if they do get less "live" mounts overall. Julie Krone...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-25-2001, 06:59 PM
Replies: 24
Views: 3,077
Posted By Rick Ransom
hdcper, Wow, make that four of us in AZ if...

hdcper,

Wow, make that four of us in AZ if Barchyman's still out there. I can't go this weekend but would be interested in setting up a meeting sometime later. Barchyman and I did that a few...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-25-2001, 06:53 PM
Replies: 24
Views: 3,077
Posted By Rick Ransom
PaceGuy, That makes three of us in the...

PaceGuy,

That makes three of us in the neighborhood. I'd rather bet live too but I don't get a chance to go on a regular basis. I also had a Connecticut OTB account that was closed. I was able...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-24-2001, 06:35 PM
Replies: 24
Views: 3,077
Posted By Rick Ransom
PaceGuy, Do you live in AZ or play from out...

PaceGuy,

Do you live in AZ or play from out of state? The only thing I can say about TuP is that it's not as bad as it used to be. But, despite all of the obstacles, it has always been a very...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-24-2001, 12:33 PM
Replies: 24
Views: 3,077
Posted By Rick Ransom
MikeH, You must be a very fast handicapper...

MikeH,

You must be a very fast handicapper if you can wait for late scratches to even get started! That still won't help you with gate scratches however. Quite often there is one minute or less...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-24-2001, 10:11 AM
Replies: 24
Views: 3,077
Posted By Rick Ransom
PaceGuy, The most annoying thing to me is...

PaceGuy,

The most annoying thing to me is having my top choice be a late scratch and the second choice winning the race at long odds. There's usually not enough time to even get the bet placed...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-19-2001, 11:03 AM
Replies: 16
Views: 2,433
Posted By Rick Ransom
PaceGuy, Thanks for the info. You might use...

PaceGuy,

Thanks for the info. You might use recency to improve the results. The original method I used was limited to 15 days or less, but things have changed a lot so it may not help now. I...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-17-2001, 09:52 AM
Replies: 16
Views: 2,433
Posted By Rick Ransom
Try checking horses who were 2nd by 5 or more...

Try checking horses who were 2nd by 5 or more lengths over the 3rd place horse (if you have that information in your database).
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-05-2001, 11:40 AM
Replies: 16
Views: 2,246
Posted By Rick Ransom
Am I missing something here? I remember a lot of...

Am I missing something here? I remember a lot of them racing horses every 5-10 days 20 years ago. Now it's usually about every 3 weeks on average. That seems to be an improvement to me. The down...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 427
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