Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Search Forums
Reload this Page Search Results

Home Register FAQDonate Roster Calendar Forum Today's Posts

Page 1 of 9 1 23 Last »
Showing results 1 to 25 of 217
Search took 0.05 seconds. Search: Posts Made By: Sapio
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-14-2015, 06:59 PM
Replies: 67
Views: 5,493
Posted By Sapio
Hi Traynor, Thanks for the explanation. ...

Hi Traynor,

Thanks for the explanation.

Thomas Sapio
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-14-2015, 06:26 PM
Replies: 67
Views: 5,493
Posted By Sapio
Thomas Sapio

Thomas Sapio
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 03-08-2015, 03:43 PM
Replies: 377
Views: 31,013
Posted By Sapio
And you know that to be true based on studies,...

And you know that to be true based on studies, hearsay or by personal experience?

Thomas Sapio
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 03-08-2015, 02:20 PM
Replies: 377
Views: 31,013
Posted By Sapio
Hi thaskalos, Isn't that also true of speed...

Hi thaskalos,

Isn't that also true of speed ratings?

Thomas Sapio
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-26-2015, 11:24 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 3,379
Posted By Sapio
Sorry, I don't have the exact thread (I have...

Sorry, I don't have the exact thread (I have notes in my files), but I'm sure you can find it by searching TM and logistic regression.

Thomas Sapio
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-26-2015, 10:38 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 3,379
Posted By Sapio
Hi Dark Target, TM addressed this question...

Hi Dark Target,

TM addressed this question in one of his threads. He was discussing the weight of the tote-odds dominating the fundamental model.

Thomas Sapio
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 01-21-2015, 07:06 AM
Replies: 132
Views: 13,322
Posted By Sapio
Hi Magister Ludi, Great advice. It worked...

Hi Magister Ludi,

Great advice. It worked for me. My TM file is over 600 pages and growing (his posts and my notes). I have actually printed all his posts (posts I could find) and put them into...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-26-2014, 08:31 AM
Replies: 71
Views: 7,386
Posted By Sapio
Interesting

Hi thaskalos,

You and TM have much in common.

A systematic way to accomplish the above is with the application of Heirarchical Bayesian Models.

Thomas Sapio
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-24-2014, 08:28 AM
Replies: 131
Views: 12,632
Posted By Sapio
Another way to look at what DL is saying is the...

Another way to look at what DL is saying is the following:

Given a race, call it R.

Now, let R-prime be a race with the same composition as R (same horses, same conditions, etc). The only...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-24-2014, 01:33 AM
Replies: 131
Views: 12,632
Posted By Sapio
Hi traynor, From what I read, the 8 lb....

Hi traynor,

From what I read, the 8 lb. attribute is used as a race classifier.

Thomas Sapio
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-24-2014, 12:48 AM
Replies: 131
Views: 12,632
Posted By Sapio
Hi DeltaLover, Several questions: Why...

Hi DeltaLover,

Several questions:

Why an 8 lb differential? Is there a smooth transition from x-lbs to y-ilbs? If the crowd is indeed "confused" by a single horse with an 8lb differential,...
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 12-21-2014, 09:15 AM
Replies: 293
Views: 36,865
Posted By Sapio
Hi PaceAdvantage, I know I am dense in these...

Hi PaceAdvantage,

I know I am dense in these matters. Can you explain this to me?

Thomas Sapio
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 12-17-2014, 09:15 AM
Replies: 293
Views: 36,865
Posted By Sapio
Hi Greyfox. I don't know that answer. ...

Hi Greyfox.

I don't know that answer.

Multicollinearity would be a concern with that many predictors. However, you can tolerate higher correlations among predictors if your sample size is...
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 12-17-2014, 08:55 AM
Replies: 293
Views: 36,865
Posted By Sapio
Hi steveb, I should have been clearer. This...

Hi steveb,

I should have been clearer. This part caught my attention:

"With the help of an American professor of mathematics, they learnt that the relationships between performances and the...
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 12-16-2014, 05:05 PM
Replies: 293
Views: 36,865
Posted By Sapio
Hi Raybo, I read in a thread by TM where you...

Hi Raybo,

I read in a thread by TM where you and TM discussed this subject. It was an old thread.

Thomas Sapio
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 12-16-2014, 01:07 PM
Replies: 293
Views: 36,865
Posted By Sapio
Possibly

Hi TM.

I hope you continue to post. I, personally, have been helped by your posts.

Could this be our TM?

And so Mike's team looked elsewhere. One of the Australians, Peter Steel, knew that...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-02-2014, 07:11 PM
Replies: 262
Views: 28,993
Posted By Sapio
Hi all, 222 posts and no forward movement. ...

Hi all,

222 posts and no forward movement.

Any ideas?

Thomas Sapio
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-27-2014, 12:58 PM
Replies: 262
Views: 28,993
Posted By Sapio
Hi JJmartin, You might correct in absolute...

Hi JJmartin,

You might correct in absolute terms, but this is not a game of absolutes. It is a game based on "relative" correctness... small incremental steps in a good direction.

Exploring a...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-27-2014, 08:53 AM
Replies: 262
Views: 28,993
Posted By Sapio
From Dl's table: Odds Ratio for PP1 =...

From Dl's table:

Odds Ratio for PP1 = 4695/(14890 - 4695) = .46052
Odds Ratio for PP2 = 3076/(14890 - 3076) = .26039

Expected Win % for PP1 = .46052/(.46052 + .26039) = .6388
Expected Win %...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-25-2014, 05:30 PM
Replies: 435
Views: 39,412
Posted By Sapio
Cratos, Thank you. Thomas Sapio

Cratos,

Thank you.

Thomas Sapio
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-25-2014, 04:56 PM
Replies: 435
Views: 39,412
Posted By Sapio
Hi Cratos, Excuse me, if this is a silly...

Hi Cratos,

Excuse me, if this is a silly question, but are you referring to physical weight?

Thomas Sapio
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-24-2014, 06:17 PM
Replies: 74
Views: 9,581
Posted By Sapio
Hi raybo, There is an alternate thread with...

Hi raybo,

There is an alternate thread with the same title.

Thomas Sapio
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-24-2014, 03:42 AM
Replies: 435
Views: 39,412
Posted By Sapio
Hi highnote, Estimate of 1-sigma (standard...

Hi highnote,

Estimate of 1-sigma (standard deviation) for 4 samples based on range is

1-sigma = range/2.059

Thomas Sapio
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-21-2014, 06:57 AM
Replies: 74
Views: 9,581
Posted By Sapio
Hi HUSKER55, You've made this charge on...

Hi HUSKER55,

You've made this charge on several occasions. What exactly has TM taken from you or anyone else that you are aware of?

Thomas Sapio
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-10-2014, 10:05 AM
Replies: 194
Views: 27,112
Posted By Sapio
Hi Husker55, Why not take a poll or vote on...

Hi Husker55,

Why not take a poll or vote on banning him from PaceAdvantage.

Thomas Sapio
Showing results 1 to 25 of 217
Page 1 of 9 1 23 Last »

 
Forum Jump
» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Wh deserves to be the favorite? (last 4 figures)
» View Poll Results
» Comment On This Poll
» This Poll Has 32 Replies
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:15 AM.

PaceAdvantage.com - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Top

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.