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Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

11-26-2014, 05:09 AM

Replies: 435

Predicting Speed Rating from Past Ratings

Views: 39,409

Posted By cashmachine

So, you are assuming that horses understand the...

So, you are assuming that horses understand the entire concept of winning a race? Like, horse come to the gate and sees horses of lower class and think "Oh, my God... I dropped in class... Now I have...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

11-19-2014, 07:27 PM

Replies: 41

How many races do you need to feel confident?

Views: 4,628

Posted By cashmachine

Don't take me wrong - I do not laugh at any...

Don't take me wrong - I do not laugh at any profitable edge. If it is profitable use it, that for sure. I just want to notice two things:

1. As you said, they playing like 80 games a season, that...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

11-19-2014, 06:50 PM

Replies: 58

The imposition of beliefs

Views: 6,049

Posted By cashmachine

Well, so far we got: 1. New pools (exotics)...

Well, so far we got:

1. New pools (exotics)
2. Game is dying (shrinking pools)
3. Whales (who supposedly make game more efficient)
4. New information (Trakus)
5. New approach to train horses...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

11-19-2014, 05:50 PM

Replies: 58

The imposition of beliefs

Views: 6,049

Posted By cashmachine

20 years ago they also had good speed horses. If...

20 years ago they also had good speed horses. If your program accurately assessed speed rating and class of horses back then, it would still work today. I doubt that this is such a change that would...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

11-19-2014, 05:35 PM

Replies: 41

How many races do you need to feel confident?

Views: 4,628

Posted By cashmachine

I have not read the book, and I wrote my comment...

I have not read the book, and I wrote my comment before I saw that Thask said it is a good book. But the name of the book triggered alarm of my BS detectors, I smell rat.

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

11-19-2014, 05:33 PM

Replies: 41

How many races do you need to feel confident?

Views: 4,628

Posted By cashmachine

Ha-ha-ha. That was funny. Like, you think you...

Ha-ha-ha. That was funny. Like, you think you have a "strong" idea once you dreamed about something that is potentially likely? By this definition of "idea" I always start with a "strong idea"...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

11-19-2014, 05:08 PM

Replies: 41

How many races do you need to feel confident?

Views: 4,628

Posted By cashmachine

Just looked up the book on amazon, the full name...

Just looked up the book on amazon, the full name of the book is "Kinky Handicapping: The Uninhibited Path To Promiscuous Profits". Lol :lol: . That is quite a name :). I have some vague suspicion...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

11-19-2014, 07:20 AM

Replies: 58

The imposition of beliefs

Views: 6,049

Posted By cashmachine

Can you give me an example of fundamental change...

Can you give me an example of fundamental change in horse racing occurred during last 20 years? New drugs do not count because they banned in HK.

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

11-19-2014, 06:32 AM

Replies: 41

How many races do you need to feel confident?

Views: 4,628

Posted By cashmachine

You cannot get an idea from nowhere, it comes...

You cannot get an idea from nowhere, it comes from the data. I do not consider obvious (and pretty much useless) stuff that you read in books like class, pace, etc. just because people who wrote...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

11-19-2014, 03:04 AM

Replies: 41

How many races do you need to feel confident?

Views: 4,628

Posted By cashmachine

You have no idea weather your concept is "strong"...

You have no idea weather your concept is "strong" or "unproven" until you do forward testing of significant length. By "come up with idea" I meant exactly "backtest it on a large sample", no...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

11-18-2014, 10:21 PM

Replies: 41

How many races do you need to feel confident?

Views: 4,628

Posted By cashmachine

Really good advice; I am using similar method,...

Really good advice; I am using similar method, just prefer to have a bit more winners, like 50+.

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

11-18-2014, 10:19 PM

Replies: 41

How many races do you need to feel confident?

Views: 4,628

Posted By cashmachine

I would disagree here. It doesn't really matter...

I would disagree here. It doesn't really matter whether you came up with angle before or after, because this is only first stage of research. After that you need to test the angle on new races (races...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

11-18-2014, 10:07 PM

Replies: 58

The imposition of beliefs

Views: 6,049

Posted By cashmachine

Robotic-ness can be good

Guys, robotic-ness can be great thing, assuming that you have found real patterns. I believe that "changes" in the game some people talking about for the most part are their delusions, they are...

Forum: Handicapper's Corner

11-02-2014, 11:15 PM

Replies: 25

Can Show Wagering Lead to Profits?

Views: 3,861

Posted By cashmachine

In Hong-Kong show betting is a very good wager....

In Hong-Kong show betting is a very good wager. Pool size is about USD $2 mil for typical race and there is no breakage. Average place winner's payoff is 2.63 to 1.

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

11-02-2014, 05:10 AM

Replies: 58

Survivor pool idea.

Views: 4,463

Posted By cashmachine

Absolutely, we are talking about odds one minute...

Absolutely, we are talking about odds one minute before start. Final odds can be up to 20% different from the last minute odds, but in majority of cases they stay around the same. And I would suggest...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

11-01-2014, 11:38 PM

Replies: 58

Survivor pool idea.

Views: 4,463

Posted By cashmachine

So when you actually will start posting your...

So when you actually will start posting your picks? Or it was just a talk?

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

10-22-2014, 11:17 PM

Replies: 58

Survivor pool idea.

Views: 4,463

Posted By cashmachine

Why don't use inverse odds as score? And anyway...

Why don't use inverse odds as score? And anyway you have to divide score on the number of selections to normalize otherwise your stand-alone score is meaningless.

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

10-19-2014, 12:47 AM

Replies: 68

Q and A with SRU

Views: 7,997

Posted By cashmachine

Very interesting article, thank you!!!

Very interesting article, thank you!!!

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

10-17-2014, 06:50 AM

Replies: 68

Q and A with SRU

Views: 7,997

Posted By cashmachine

I have a question: why jockeys stand on the horse...

I have a question: why jockeys stand on the horse and not sit on top of it when they racing?

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

10-15-2014, 06:46 AM

Replies: 470

The biggest hindrance to making a profit?

Views: 40,370

Posted By cashmachine

I also think you should bet all the races where...

I also think you should bet all the races where you have any edge. In general, it makes sense even to bet races with slightly negative expectation to reduce your variance.

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

10-12-2014, 01:16 AM

Replies: 88

I need help!!!

Views: 9,678

Posted By cashmachine

Chin, I noticed that you bet on mix of surfaces....

Chin, I noticed that you bet on mix of surfaces. As far as I know, handicapping is a little different on different surfaces, so I would suggest you to choose one type of surface and stick to it. You...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

10-05-2014, 06:32 PM

Replies: 251

The optical illusion of PPs and replays.

Views: 23,607

Posted By cashmachine

Guys I think you put too much emphasise on just...

Guys I think you put too much emphasise on just ONE datapoint. It is generally agreeable that there is significant random component in every race. Maybe horse did not get enough sleep the night...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

10-04-2014, 11:12 PM

Replies: 88

I need help!!!

Views: 9,678

Posted By cashmachine

I am no expert handicapper, but from description...

I am no expert handicapper, but from description of your system, I would say it is too simplistic to really expect profit. From what I heard and read on this site, winning systems tend to be more...

Forum: Handicapper's Corner

09-27-2014, 04:53 PM

Replies: 12

Bridgejumpers and Jockeys?

Views: 2,068

Posted By cashmachine

For obvious reasons we will never know the answer.

For obvious reasons we will never know the answer.

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

09-24-2014, 07:26 PM

Replies: 154

Creating a model to predicting the early Pace of the race

Views: 11,780

Posted By cashmachine

I am working on the modelling horse racing 2.5...

I am working on the modelling horse racing 2.5 years full time now, and one thing that I learned is that it is usually very weak idea to submit to your model (whatever it is) raw values, usually it...

Showing results 1 to 25 of 155

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