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Search: Posts Made By: Half Smoke
Forum: Off Topic - Sports 10-23-2020, 07:25 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 378
Posted By Half Smoke
New York Giants

..........................


a good highlight to characterize the New York Giants season
Daniel Jones trips after an 80 yard run failing to score in a wide open field
it didn't hurt the Giants...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-22-2020, 04:38 PM
Replies: 40
Views: 2,142
Posted By Half Smoke
........................ theory: the...

........................


theory: the shorter the race the easier it is to predict

because there is less time and distance for unpredictable things to happen

such as a horse getting...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-22-2020, 10:19 AM
Replies: 1
Views: 318
Posted By Half Smoke
bridge jumper twitter feed

........................


for those who would like to bet against bridge jumpers in search of a large show or place payout

the 2 WVA tracks, Mountaineer and Charlestown pay out minimums of...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-11-2020, 05:39 AM
Replies: 24
Views: 2,105
Posted By Half Smoke
......................... my answer would...

.........................


my answer would be that some tracks crush down logical faves more than other tracks

if the bettor likes faves he's going to do worse at these tracks than at tracks...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-10-2020, 03:42 AM
Replies: 36
Views: 2,886
Posted By Half Smoke
......................... BarchCapper: ...

.........................


BarchCapper:



off the subject but anyway, I like your signature -

"”You know what they say: Nothing ventured, nothing ...ventured” - Vicki in Let It Ride"
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-09-2020, 04:40 PM
Replies: 36
Views: 2,886
Posted By Half Smoke
well, of course - what is the average field size...

well, of course - what is the average field size of U.S. races - I don't think it could possibly be more than 8 - so many races with just 5 or 6

the HK average field size I would guess is at least...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-09-2020, 01:06 PM
Replies: 36
Views: 2,886
Posted By Half Smoke
well, I do have to say that I'm quite surprised...

well, I do have to say that I'm quite surprised although shocked might be a better word

I looked at the results from 8 races at Happy Valley on 7/10/20 - (linked) - that date just happened to come...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-03-2020, 05:48 AM
Replies: 36
Views: 2,886
Posted By Half Smoke
that was definitely an interesting post ...

that was definitely an interesting post
although I have to admit I'm highly skeptical
it's definitely unusual to hear from a bettor who basically disregards the info on PPs and elsewhere

I'm...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-29-2020, 08:44 AM
Replies: 36
Views: 2,886
Posted By Half Smoke
.............. sayings are fun to read or...

..............


sayings are fun to read or listen to but they really don't proffer any wisdom on how to win at this game

they imply a one size fits all mentality

clearly, there are many...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-28-2020, 02:16 PM
Replies: 36
Views: 2,886
Posted By Half Smoke
........................... not a...

...........................




not a man alive can pay the bills on 4/5
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-22-2020, 10:32 AM
Replies: 10
Views: 1,292
Posted By Half Smoke
...................... I read this...

......................


I read this somewhere but I can't remember where:



stalkers win the highest %

followed by frontrunners
Forum: Off Topic - Sports 09-19-2020, 06:03 AM
Replies: 0
Views: 330
Posted By Half Smoke
edge on NFL parlays

.......................


parlays are not my thing, but they are for many

half point parlay cards, very popular in LV and elsewhere (still, as far as I know) offer a way to potentially get a...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-08-2020, 04:46 AM
Replies: 2
Views: 1,223
Posted By Half Smoke
new ridiculousness from Twin Spires

......................


maybe it's not so new - I just noticed it a few days ago

next to the odds they display a number under the abbreviation PL

I had never before heard of PL

here is...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-07-2020, 12:50 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 1,212
Posted By Half Smoke
you might be right but your analysis of the...

you might be right
but your analysis of the race is very sophisticated

I tend to doubt that the majority of these bettors, many of them once in a blue moon players on this particular day, would...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-07-2020, 09:12 AM
Replies: 10
Views: 1,212
Posted By Half Smoke
........................... this is a...

...........................


this is a little off the subject but I didn't want to start another thread:



Tiz the Law paid as much to place as he would have paid if he had...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-06-2020, 08:32 AM
Replies: 10
Views: 1,212
Posted By Half Smoke
you somehow missed the fact that I wasn't...

you somehow missed the fact that I wasn't debating anything
and you somehow seemed to have missed this part of my quote:
Forum: General Racing Discussion 09-06-2020, 05:22 AM
Replies: 37
Views: 2,013
Posted By Half Smoke
2020 KY Derby action less than half of prior years

...................................



Kentucky Derby........parimutuel handle................WinPlaceShow Pool




2020.......................................$31,110,660
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-05-2020, 06:45 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 1,212
Posted By Half Smoke
example - class factor overrated

....................


Churchill race 13 - the Turf Classic

the #1 horse - Factor This went off at 5.50/1

the #8 horse - Sacred Life went off at 1.90/1
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 08-23-2020, 01:36 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 644
Posted By Half Smoke
I thought this too I would guess many do I...

I thought this too
I would guess many do

I had an idea about betting against faves in cheap claiming races

before betting I tracked the results of faves in a couple hundred cheap claiming...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 08-23-2020, 05:15 AM
Replies: 5
Views: 644
Posted By Half Smoke
good race - bad race - good race - bad race - good race - bad race

...............................


I know you guys have seen this pattern in some horses - it pops up fairly often

the horse cannot put 2 good races back to back - he will only run well after a...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 08-17-2020, 07:35 AM
Replies: 337
Views: 19,846
Posted By Half Smoke
I think it's true that there are late bet downs...

I think it's true that there are late bet downs and it can cause the horse that you've bet to become a bad bet

but these late bet downs seem to me to be maybe 90% faves and its often very...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 08-08-2020, 07:18 AM
Replies: 0
Views: 458
Posted By Half Smoke
Mandatory payout Woodbine $295, 470.54

♪ ♫..........♣ ♥ ♠ ♦


12 horses in the field
not an easy call by any means

https://i.imgur.com/D9JZgc0.png
Forum: Off Topic - Sports 08-02-2020, 06:38 PM
Replies: 14
Views: 1,529
Posted By Half Smoke
..................... my OP in this...

.....................


my OP in this thread is all wrong - sorry about that
at the time I wrote it I did not realize this match was only an exhibition
with all kinds of special rules and...
Forum: Off Topic - Sports 08-02-2020, 04:41 PM
Replies: 14
Views: 1,529
Posted By Half Smoke
thanks for your input Mr. Fischer I've...

thanks for your input Mr. Fischer

I've noticed that many of your posts are extremely informative

and you always express yourself in a pleasant manner

it's much appreciated
Forum: Off Topic - Sports 07-26-2020, 04:56 PM
Replies: 14
Views: 1,529
Posted By Half Smoke
Mike Tyson vs. Roy Jones Jr. - battle of the almost seniors

........................

scheduled for 9/12


first, this is a nonsense fight so why am I posting this?
because I expect it's an easy way to get +EV on a bet on Jones

Tyson is but a shadow...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 251

 
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