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Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

08-21-2007, 01:38 PM

Replies: 46

Impact Factor versus true probability

Views: 8,910

Posted By GameTheory

Impact value is the pecentage of winners with the...

Impact value is the pecentage of winners with the factor -- the percentage of ALL winners in a sample with the factor divided by the percentage of all the starters with the factor.

So, let's say...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

08-20-2007, 09:53 PM

Replies: 46

Impact Factor versus true probability

Views: 8,910

Posted By GameTheory

Even if they don't realize it, anyone making a...

Even if they don't realize it, anyone making a profit is by definition betting on hidden positives. That's where overlays come from. (Just as anybody who makes a profit is therefore by definition...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

08-20-2007, 03:58 PM

Replies: 46

Impact Factor versus true probability

Views: 8,910

Posted By GameTheory

That just means your factors, or your database...

That just means your factors, or your database approach is too general. There is nothing inherently more or less general about using a database, it is just faster. There is no reason you can't...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

08-19-2007, 08:13 PM

Replies: 46

Impact Factor versus true probability

Views: 8,910

Posted By GameTheory

I didn't say anything about betting them blindly,...

I didn't say anything about betting them blindly, or even betting them at all. They could be negative angles. I was just wondering how you might adjust your oddsline for inherently "non-relative"...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

08-19-2007, 06:37 PM

Replies: 46

Impact Factor versus true probability

Views: 8,910

Posted By GameTheory

Overlay, how do you handle factors that simply...

Overlay, how do you handle factors that simply don't apply to all horses in a race? 2nd race off layoff, 1st off claim, trainer angles that only apply to one horse, etc...

Forum: General Handicapping Discussion

08-19-2007, 03:49 PM

Replies: 46

Impact Factor versus true probability

Views: 8,910

Posted By GameTheory

Well, there is no such thing as a "true"...

Well, there is no such thing as a "true" probability, but putting that aside the only way to adjust for the different scenarios precisely is to consider each scenario separately, i.e. create an...

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