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Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-12-2018, 06:01 PM
Replies: 67
Views: 3,730
Posted By steveb
their own sections are fine, in more than 10...

their own sections are fine, in more than 10 years, i am yet to find a timing error(ie: one that raises a flag)
hkjc seems to care much more than any other place.....maybe that's why trakus is no...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-12-2018, 05:08 PM
Replies: 67
Views: 3,730
Posted By steveb
pretty sure that's not kept up to date. they...

pretty sure that's not kept up to date.
they might still have the aerial stuff(found on hkjc site) but nowhere can i find the data, neither on trakus nor the hkjc site.



its' basically...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-08-2018, 04:38 AM
Replies: 67
Views: 3,730
Posted By steveb
my simple observation is that you don't...

my simple observation is that you don't understand as well as you think you do.


full points though, for going to the trouble of so much detail, which in turn gives me the confidence to say the...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-06-2018, 10:29 PM
Replies: 139
Views: 4,027
Posted By steveb
it's probably not worth worrying about. woods...

it's probably not worth worrying about.
woods 2ic told me the time stuff i did for them was worth .3 of all the form factors in their models, which to me is a lot.
nevertheless, it also meant that ...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-06-2018, 10:07 PM
Replies: 139
Views: 4,027
Posted By steveb
i guess i am not 'most' the speed model is just...

i guess i am not 'most'
the speed model is just fine, your problem is thinking that guys like me think it's the be all of it.
i would use a zillion factors other than time, i just know that time is...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-06-2018, 09:58 PM
Replies: 139
Views: 4,027
Posted By steveb
because, i found something i enjoy more. ...

because, i found something i enjoy more.


since late mid to late seventies it was my life, and i was actually wrong when i stated that i had not bet australia this millenium.
i should have said...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-05-2018, 07:40 PM
Replies: 139
Views: 4,027
Posted By steveb
pedantic i know, but i never adjust times. :) ...

pedantic i know, but i never adjust times. :)


just say i expected an 80(which in reality is 98%) for this race over 1200m(~6f)


time of race was 70s, the standard(the time that equals 100)...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-05-2018, 07:02 PM
Replies: 139
Views: 4,027
Posted By steveb
although most of my gambling life was on...

although most of my gambling life was on australian racing, i have not bet there since before the new millenium.
won't even have a go at the melbourne cup today.
you are correct though, in that...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-05-2018, 06:50 PM
Replies: 139
Views: 4,027
Posted By steveb
the 'variant' is just part of the process for me,...

the 'variant' is just part of the process for me, it's simply what is left over after the calcs are done.
basically it's just the difference between expected and what you got.
that's the simplified...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-05-2018, 04:45 PM
Replies: 139
Views: 4,027
Posted By steveb
i can't speak for others, but my numbers are...

i can't speak for others, but my numbers are simply based on times, nothing else.
using the same basics for 35 years plus, just that the same things have evolved over that time frame.
there are NO...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-04-2018, 05:56 PM
Replies: 139
Views: 4,027
Posted By steveb
have not we just been through all that? not the...

have not we just been through all that?
not the same two horses, as that is too improbable but we have been yakking about that theory, the whole thread basically.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-03-2018, 09:47 PM
Replies: 139
Views: 4,027
Posted By steveb
it's not really evolving. i only bought...

it's not really evolving.
i only bought 'picking winners' because i just happened to be in a book shop looking for a book on birds(the tweet tweet kind!) and noticed it.
had no idea who beyer was...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-30-2018, 10:54 PM
Replies: 139
Views: 4,027
Posted By steveb
and i should mention... if TIME lesss M_TIME is...

and i should mention...
if TIME lesss M_TIME is negative
then MARGIN less T_MARGIN must be positive
and the inverse is true

if one is zero then the other must be zero too


if those...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-30-2018, 10:30 PM
Replies: 139
Views: 4,027
Posted By steveb
here is another one that might give somebody an...

here is another one that might give somebody an idea as far as error checking routines go.
all done programatically.
if something looks weird the computer automatically tells you it thinks...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-30-2018, 09:32 PM
Replies: 139
Views: 4,027
Posted By steveb
there was at least 8 starters in every race. ...

there was at least 8 starters in every race.
the only way you can confidently account for field size if you don't have enough is to standardise or normalise them.


your last sentence does not...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-30-2018, 08:56 PM
Replies: 139
Views: 4,027
Posted By steveb
i had not even thought of the gaps increasing, so...

i had not even thought of the gaps increasing, so thought i would check.
does not seem to support your opinion?


columns....
average speed point behind winner for # position
horse count in...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-30-2018, 08:17 PM
Replies: 139
Views: 4,027
Posted By steveb
no, i have just come home from a 3 hour session...

no, i have just come home from a 3 hour session in the pool, to atone for my sins of yesterday(and help my headache)!
i am actually a non-drinker, but every blue moon......
hope i did not talk to...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-30-2018, 08:03 PM
Replies: 139
Views: 4,027
Posted By steveb
that's a great answer thanks. i was able to...

that's a great answer thanks.
i was able to line all the countries up that i worked on, but that did not mean the numbers always transferred well because of travel and local conditions.
not sure...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-30-2018, 07:25 AM
Replies: 139
Views: 4,027
Posted By steveb
gee ariz your last post had me laughing, maybe i...

gee ariz your last post had me laughing, maybe i best have one more before bed!
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-30-2018, 07:21 AM
Replies: 139
Views: 4,027
Posted By steveb
saw that, but i think timeform and me have some...

saw that, but i think timeform and me have some philosophical differences.

not that that is bad, it takes all types, just that i prefer to do stuff my own ways.
well i guess that is past tense...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-30-2018, 04:55 AM
Replies: 139
Views: 4,027
Posted By steveb
i missed this first time around. as regards...

i missed this first time around.
as regards your bit in bold...

i have no idea how beyer does it now.
i just have those books that he wrote in the long ago, that got me interested it time, when...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-30-2018, 12:11 AM
Replies: 139
Views: 4,027
Posted By steveb
just to show what beyers really are. examples...

just to show what beyers really are.
examples taken from 'picking winners' starting page 139 where they are rounded

in effect if you want to do raw beyer you don't need any charts, just one...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-29-2018, 11:42 PM
Replies: 139
Views: 4,027
Posted By steveb
that's interesting, was their any conflict in...

that's interesting, was their any conflict in methodolgy between the two of you?

i have no idea of how good timeform(we have one in aust as you would know) is, because i have always done...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-29-2018, 11:26 PM
Replies: 139
Views: 4,027
Posted By steveb
i was going to ask you that and forgot. are...

i was going to ask you that and forgot.
are your figures done so as to line up with figures from timeform in other countries?
ie: is 100 of yours meant to equal 100 of theirs?
i read where simon...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-29-2018, 10:41 PM
Replies: 139
Views: 4,027
Posted By steveb
and going off topic! weight is an...

and going off topic!


weight is an interesting variable
where i can figure how much it is worth, then it's worth as a predictor is more or less depending on how well the official handicappers do...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 500

 
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