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Showing results 1 to 25 of 45
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BETA
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
12-26-2018, 10:22 AM
Replies:
220
Explain the A-B-C-X method for horizontal wagers?
Views:
27,961
Posted By
BETA
It's all about the Math
Using the example race in Post#17 (by Thaskalos):
All #1’s = A w/ 32% probability (my betting line)
All #2’s = B w/ 25% probability
All #3’s and #4’s = C w/ 10% probability
Caveman ticket...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
09-03-2018, 09:25 AM
Replies:
30
Live ODDS
Views:
5,237
Posted By
BETA
ATRpro
I use ATRpro to import real time tote odds into my custom PP's (excel spreadsheet).... Works great! (FYI: In addition, I am not a HTR subscriber.)
Gary Pizzigati (the owner) is an expert in VBA...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
06-03-2018, 05:14 PM
Replies:
26
False Favorites
Views:
3,307
Posted By
BETA
Gambler’s Ruin
GMB RUIN = The projected maximum number of consecutive losses based on total samples and corresponding hit rate.
If using Excel, the formula would be:
=(ROUND(LN(“plays”)/-LN((1-“win%”)),0))
...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
06-03-2018, 02:29 PM
Replies:
26
False Favorites
Views:
3,307
Posted By
BETA
Race Types as shown in Column C
Type A = Dominant = An algorithm to discern the ease in which the public can determine the race favorite.
Type B = Orderly = Slightly more difficult race dynamics.
Type C = Chaos = The most...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
06-03-2018, 12:53 PM
Replies:
26
False Favorites
Views:
3,307
Posted By
BETA
Today's Tip Sheet Updated w/ Early Scratches
"And what is dominant/orderly/chaotic? I assume chaotic is a race where the pace is really unpredictable?"
I'll try and answer when I have more time....
BOL!
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
06-02-2018, 07:47 PM
Replies:
26
False Favorites
Views:
3,307
Posted By
BETA
Tip Sheet Approach
I start my preliminary handicapping with a Tip Sheet generated from a database that classifies each race type as “Dominant”, “Orderly” or “Chaos” …. Each race entry is sorted from best to worst using...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
05-31-2017, 10:26 AM
Replies:
30
Vulnerable Morning Line Favorites – List to Share
Views:
6,538
Posted By
BETA
Vulnerable Morning Line Favorites - Discontinued
I’m discontinuing daily list as I’ve discovered that “scratches” have a significant negative impact on end results…. Essentially, ML favorites that are non-contenders before scratches become...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
05-29-2017, 01:59 PM
Replies:
30
Vulnerable Morning Line Favorites – List to Share
Views:
6,538
Posted By
BETA
Recap: May 24th - May 28th
No time to do daily recap as suggested; however, the following is a recap of database results from completed races.... Please understand that scratches do effect the overall race dynamics and in...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
05-28-2017, 06:24 PM
Replies:
30
Vulnerable Morning Line Favorites – List to Share
Views:
6,538
Posted By
BETA
Vulnerable Morning Line Favorites for May 29th
See attachment.
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
05-27-2017, 09:08 PM
Replies:
30
Vulnerable Morning Line Favorites – List to Share
Views:
6,538
Posted By
BETA
Vulnerable Morning Line Favorites for May 28th
See attachment.
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
05-27-2017, 07:35 AM
Replies:
30
Vulnerable Morning Line Favorites – List to Share
Views:
6,538
Posted By
BETA
Coupled Entries
If both entries are not listed, it is likely the other half is a contender…. Please do not blindly toss both halves of coupled entries (as vulnerable) unless you’ve done your handicapping due...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
05-26-2017, 06:01 PM
Replies:
30
Vulnerable Morning Line Favorites – List to Share
Views:
6,538
Posted By
BETA
Vulnerable Morning Line Favorites for May 27th
See attachment.
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
05-26-2017, 09:20 AM
Replies:
30
Vulnerable Morning Line Favorites – List to Share
Views:
6,538
Posted By
BETA
Shout out to Dave Schwartz
Just wanted to let you know your product “Organize Your Handicapping” was the inspiration behind my recently revised contender selection methodology…. In fact, I’m a fan of most of your work...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
05-26-2017, 08:47 AM
Replies:
30
Vulnerable Morning Line Favorites – List to Share
Views:
6,538
Posted By
BETA
Exchange Wagering / Data Correction
Biggestal99’s post got me thinking…. I’m not an Exchange player and thus not totally familiar with the format; however, I’ve reworked the data based on what I assume is a typical scenario…. This...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
05-25-2017, 05:46 PM
Replies:
30
Vulnerable Morning Line Favorites – List to Share
Views:
6,538
Posted By
BETA
Vulnerable Morning Line Favorites for May 26th
See attachment.
Also, a couple of quick notes…. For “off” tracks and “off” the turf races it’s best to disregard both the vulnerable ML Favorite List as well as the Contender Grades shown on the...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
05-24-2017, 06:41 PM
Replies:
30
Vulnerable Morning Line Favorites – List to Share
Views:
6,538
Posted By
BETA
Vulnerable Morning Line Favorites for May 25th
I’ve attached the list for of Vulnerable Morning Line Favorites for May 25th…. As general clarification, this list proves useful as my personal approach involves multiple tracks…. If you’re only...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
05-24-2017, 10:29 AM
Replies:
30
Vulnerable Morning Line Favorites – List to Share
Views:
6,538
Posted By
BETA
Vulnerable Morning Line Favorites – List to Share
This post is about finding wagering opportunities based on vulnerable ML favorites. Each day I run a database query to isolate these potential bad bets (underlays) to tab for further handicapping...
Forum:
Selections
05-04-2017, 09:02 AM
Replies:
37
Horses of Interest
Views:
4,696
Posted By
BETA
May 2nd Results: 0 for 2 (on Qualified Plays) ...
May 2nd Results:
0 for 2 (on Qualified Plays)
YTD: 1 for 13 / $26 invested / $14.20 returned / -$11.80 (-45% ROI)
May 4th….
I’ve decided I’m not cut out for “posting” plays…. I certainly...
Forum:
Selections
05-01-2017, 08:37 PM
Replies:
37
Horses of Interest
Views:
4,696
Posted By
BETA
May 1st Results: No Plays. YTD: 1 for 11...
May 1st Results:
No Plays.
YTD: 1 for 11 / $22 invested / $14.20 returned / -$7.80 (-36% ROI)
GOAL: 28% Win Percentage with Positive ROI
May 2nd…. 4 Potential Plays:
Forum:
Selections
05-01-2017, 09:15 AM
Replies:
37
Horses of Interest
Views:
4,696
Posted By
BETA
Apr 30th Results: (Recommended play did not...
Apr 30th Results:
(Recommended play did not meet minimum odds requirement.)
YTD: 1 for 11 / $22 invested / $14.20 returned / -$7.80 (-36% ROI)
GOAL: 28% Win Percentage with Positive ROI
...
Forum:
Selections
05-01-2017, 07:46 AM
Replies:
37
Horses of Interest
Views:
4,696
Posted By
BETA
Ultracapper…. Congratulations on picking the...
Ultracapper…. Congratulations on picking the winner of SA9…. Excellent analysis!
I really regret the inappropriate comment I made regarding Kenneth Black…. My trainer stats for the last 12 months...
Forum:
Selections
04-30-2017, 01:50 PM
Replies:
37
Horses of Interest
Views:
4,696
Posted By
BETA
Apr 29th Results: 1 for 2 (2 qualified plays w/...
Apr 29th Results:
1 for 2 (2 qualified plays w/ one winner…. RE: CD11: #12 paid $14.20)
YTD: 1 for 11 / $22 invested / $14.20 returned / -$7.80 (-36% ROI)
GOAL: 28% Win Percentage with...
Forum:
Selections
04-30-2017, 08:13 AM
Replies:
37
Horses of Interest
Views:
4,696
Posted By
BETA
No official plays at present.... Here's a list of...
No official plays at present.... Here's a list of considerations:
PHA3: #3 Discovery Bay
PRM2: #3 Roll Seattle Roll
LS2: #2 Italian Candy
GG3: #1 Krsto Skye
SA3: #7 Best Two Minutes
HST2: ...
Forum:
Selections
04-29-2017, 09:32 AM
Replies:
37
Horses of Interest
Views:
4,696
Posted By
BETA
Apr 28th Results: No Play (Selection did not...
Apr 28th Results:
No Play (Selection did not meet minimum odds requirement.)
YTD: 0 for 9
GOAL: 28% Win Percentage with Positive ROI
Apr 29th…. 3 Potential Plays:
Forum:
Selections
04-28-2017, 07:43 AM
Replies:
37
Horses of Interest
Views:
4,696
Posted By
BETA
Apr 27th Results: No Play (Selection did not...
Apr 27th Results:
No Play (Selection did not meet minimum odds requirement.)
YTD: 0 for 9
GOAL: 28% Win Percentage with Positive ROI
Apr 28th…. 1 Potential Play:
Showing results 1 to 25 of 45
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