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Search: Posts Made By: GMB@BP
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** Today, 11:58 AM
Replies: 54
Views: 1,913
Posted By GMB@BP
Isnt up to each individual handicapper to...

Isnt up to each individual handicapper to determine the underlay/overlay?

If one felt Justify was 1/5 to win the derby, and the oaks winner 2/1 then 16/1 would be a square price.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** Today, 11:34 AM
Replies: 54
Views: 1,913
Posted By GMB@BP
Well its kinda funny, and a long story, at some...

Well its kinda funny, and a long story, at some point I could elaborate more but....

For me I am having issues where I know certain horses are going to win and there is value in the plays, as you...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** Today, 09:21 AM
Replies: 54
Views: 1,913
Posted By GMB@BP
thats the entire prism in which I bet, whether I...

thats the entire prism in which I bet, whether I have a rooting interest in the outcome.

I bet against Justify in the last two races, the value is there should he lose, but trust me I am rooting...
Forum: General Racing Discussion Today, 09:20 AM
Replies: 54
Views: 1,758
Posted By GMB@BP
Either testing has gotten a lot better or...

Either testing has gotten a lot better or pharmaceuticals have gone backwards in 40 years or so.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** Today, 09:15 AM
Replies: 118
Views: 3,659
Posted By GMB@BP
Didnt we dispense with the Justify is not all...

Didnt we dispense with the Justify is not all that fast after the whole raw time debacle in the SA Derby? Which by the way had the same exact pace numbers as the Preakness.

It was right then and...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** Yesterday, 10:40 PM
Replies: 15
Views: 481
Posted By GMB@BP
Great post...I am spoiled going to Del Mar and...

Great post...I am spoiled going to Del Mar and Santa Anita for the most part.

I would be very frustrated laying out all that cash for that experience. You are a good sport.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** Yesterday, 06:04 PM
Replies: 29
Views: 996
Posted By GMB@BP
ha, now thats funny :popcorn:

ha, now thats funny :popcorn:
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** Yesterday, 04:11 PM
Replies: 118
Views: 3,659
Posted By GMB@BP
I wasnt sure if it was jockey speak at the time...

I wasnt sure if it was jockey speak at the time but this is pretty interesting about Justify's trip, and how he was ridden at the end.
...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** Yesterday, 02:54 PM
Replies: 118
Views: 3,659
Posted By GMB@BP
I dont have the PP's up but didnt Bravazo race at...

I dont have the PP's up but didnt Bravazo race at the front end of both his Alw win and the Risen Star? I dont think he is a midpack horse by any means. He was 3 lengths off it, I bet that matches...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** Yesterday, 02:49 PM
Replies: 33
Views: 1,194
Posted By GMB@BP
McKinzie hasnt even had a workout in 2 months so...

McKinzie hasnt even had a workout in 2 months so I gotta think August is a bit iffy for that horse, but he is very good.

Ax Man is at best a mile type horse, perfect trips its stretchable.

I...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** Yesterday, 02:34 PM
Replies: 29
Views: 996
Posted By GMB@BP
ha, more or less what I posted.

ha, more or less what I posted.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** Yesterday, 02:33 PM
Replies: 29
Views: 996
Posted By GMB@BP
Why is it so surprising that horse like Bravazo...

Why is it so surprising that horse like Bravazo and Tenfold would run career best races and figures when they get a dream setup like they had on Saturday? Sitting behind dueling leaders who engaged...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** Yesterday, 08:28 AM
Replies: 118
Views: 3,659
Posted By GMB@BP
I have had jockeys say the pace was slow only to...

I have had jockeys say the pace was slow only to look at the figures for the day and they were blazing.

I have had trainers say the horse was dead ready before the race and then say he needed a...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion Yesterday, 08:25 AM
Replies: 26
Views: 1,631
Posted By GMB@BP
I think he will be 1/2 in the Belmont, not less. ...

I think he will be 1/2 in the Belmont, not less.

California Chrome was 4/5. American Pharoah was 3/4. Heck he may approach even money looking at how dominant those two were in Baltimore.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** Yesterday, 08:12 AM
Replies: 33
Views: 1,194
Posted By GMB@BP
There is a 20-25 point gap between the two...

There is a 20-25 point gap between the two figures, on average.

108 is actually somewhere in the 80's.

124, which was the races base figure, is somewhere around 99-104 Beyer.

Timeform has...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** Yesterday, 12:03 AM
Replies: 118
Views: 3,659
Posted By GMB@BP
You can accept whatever you want, jockey quotes...

You can accept whatever you want, jockey quotes about pace and speed figures...should always be taken with a grain of salt!
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-20-2018, 11:15 PM
Replies: 118
Views: 3,659
Posted By GMB@BP
There is no need to worry about run ups and...

There is no need to worry about run ups and different distances, CJ has that built into all his figures.

Here are the pace figures for the 4f and 6f mark for each stakes race

Preakness 140 137...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-20-2018, 05:30 PM
Replies: 118
Views: 3,659
Posted By GMB@BP
So which horse is sacrificing himself in the...

So which horse is sacrificing himself in the Belmont? That will help my handicapping, thanks in advance.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-20-2018, 03:22 PM
Replies: 158
Views: 5,532
Posted By GMB@BP
I have made my feelings about the Beyer figures...

I have made my feelings about the Beyer figures in recent years, especially at the top end of races, I think they are often too low for the Graded horses.

I trust the figures CJ has made for well...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-20-2018, 02:49 PM
Replies: 118
Views: 3,659
Posted By GMB@BP
He doesnt make the move reall at all, it was a...

He doesnt make the move reall at all, it was a grass mdn cliaming win and a restricted grass claimer, think at Monmouth of like 12 starts over 5 years.

Trainers at the high end all want 4 horse...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 05-20-2018, 02:34 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 893
Posted By GMB@BP
I dont disagree, its this kind of statement...

I dont disagree, its this kind of statement though

"did you see that horse close in the Derby, with some traffic issues, and that gallop out as well, he is going to love the Belmont"

ie,...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 05-20-2018, 02:10 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 893
Posted By GMB@BP
I think the better statements is that really well...

I think the better statements is that really well backed Derby horses who made big moves in the Derby on collapsing paces are generally underlays in the Belmont.

Ice Box would be a perfect...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-20-2018, 02:04 PM
Replies: 54
Views: 1,913
Posted By GMB@BP
up the track, I think I would take that bet, what...

up the track, I think I would take that bet, what kind of odds can I get? What is up the track, back half of the field?
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-20-2018, 02:03 PM
Replies: 118
Views: 3,659
Posted By GMB@BP
Trainers are not usually good handicappers...

Trainers are not usually good handicappers (though his mentor sure was).

Also, once the horse broke well and was inside the speed he really had no choice, Brown sounds silly in this case.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-20-2018, 02:00 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 1,192
Posted By GMB@BP
I think Justify is very comfortable rating in 2nd...

I think Justify is very comfortable rating in 2nd or 3rd from a good post, the track conditions has kind of forced the hand.

I am hoping for a dry track, it probably wont be.
Showing results 1 to 25 of 500

 
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Do you bet Justify to win/single on Belmont day or do you spread?
Yes, he's a single and wins Triple Crown. - 22.92%
11 Votes
No, I'm gonna use him but spread - 29.17%
14 Votes
Toss - 41.67%
20 Votes
Doesn't run - 6.25%
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