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Search took 0.01 seconds. Search: Posts Made By: ultracapper
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-14-2018, 01:57 AM
Replies: 230
Views: 23,768
Posted By ultracapper
CJ, let me throw this your way. I don't...

CJ, let me throw this your way.

I don't know your involvement in the SoCal pools, but here are some numbers for summer 2017 Del Mar.

Subject races are all maidens for older horses, N2L and...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-13-2018, 06:19 PM
Replies: 230
Views: 23,768
Posted By ultracapper
Take the RED out of this sentence, and I don't...

Take the RED out of this sentence, and I don't shy away from this statement at all. I started playing in 1982. My first profitable year was 2008. I've had 3 losing years since.

I fell into the...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-08-2018, 03:14 PM
Replies: 230
Views: 23,768
Posted By ultracapper
Usually the most knowledgeable, and/or...

Usually the most knowledgeable, and/or plugged-in-to-the-industry-guys that come through here get tired of the scene pretty quick. It's a shame, but there are a number of posters in this forum that...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-05-2018, 11:45 PM
Replies: 230
Views: 23,768
Posted By ultracapper
There are a lot of smart people on this board. I...

There are a lot of smart people on this board. I know a number of them, that if they would just relax, and look at this with fresh eyes, and learning more and more how these operations work, would...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-05-2018, 11:33 PM
Replies: 230
Views: 23,768
Posted By ultracapper
I second this. Solid contribution, whether it's...

I second this. Solid contribution, whether it's totally digestible to everybody or not. There isn't a thing about it that I find unbelievable. When you churn as much as some of these teams churn,...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-05-2018, 11:22 PM
Replies: 230
Views: 23,768
Posted By ultracapper
This reminds me when I was a real greenhorn,...

This reminds me when I was a real greenhorn, those first couple years all those decades ago. This stake winning 3yo at Longacres started his 4yo year 0fer4 or 5, and then, bang, he runs back to his...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-05-2018, 02:48 PM
Replies: 230
Views: 23,768
Posted By ultracapper
Awesome, informative post. Thanks for taking the...

Awesome, informative post. Thanks for taking the time and effort to make it. I speculate as much, if not more, than the next guy on this subject as all my info is second hand and/or empty handed. I...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-02-2018, 11:24 PM
Replies: 230
Views: 23,768
Posted By ultracapper
[/B] These guys are making numerous bets at...

[/B]

These guys are making numerous bets at the last minute. They're not standing at a SAM punching in tickets. They have access to pool info that isn't available to the public. They can see the...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-29-2018, 09:01 PM
Replies: 230
Views: 23,768
Posted By ultracapper
Maybe, maybe not. The inside horse went off at...

Maybe, maybe not. The inside horse went off at 8/1, and was shorter to 2 or 3 horses than the subject horse, at 5/1. If the winning combo would have been half what the 9/3 would have paid, then I'd...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-29-2018, 12:26 AM
Replies: 230
Views: 23,768
Posted By ultracapper
I guess, if anything, they're taking statistics...

I guess, if anything, they're taking statistics into account as a "handicapping" process. Usually these kinds of operations come down to probabilities. I guess they could get into the exotics early,...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-29-2018, 12:08 AM
Replies: 230
Views: 23,768
Posted By ultracapper
I would think, when everything is taken into...

I would think, when everything is taken into account, a bot could see a 7/5 horse and determine it should be Even. As far as it's concerned, it's 40% overlayed. Maybe some handicapping is going into...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-28-2018, 11:47 PM
Replies: 230
Views: 23,768
Posted By ultracapper
You could be right. If so, if the bot is...

You could be right. If so, if the bot is handicapping, it has as much chance of creating overlays as it does taking advantage of them.

As often as we see winning favorites get seriously hammered,...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-28-2018, 11:27 PM
Replies: 230
Views: 23,768
Posted By ultracapper
Maybe AndyC can answer that. IRS minutia is not...

Maybe AndyC can answer that. IRS minutia is not my forte.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-28-2018, 10:55 PM
Replies: 230
Views: 23,768
Posted By ultracapper
It gets better, the tracks pay them to do it in...

It gets better, the tracks pay them to do it in the form of rebates.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-28-2018, 10:32 PM
Replies: 230
Views: 23,768
Posted By ultracapper
Why would the bot make the horse short in the...

Why would the bot make the horse short in the exotics? That would imply handicapping. Sure, the bot could scan the will pays for race 8 while betting is going on for race 6, but how would it know...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-28-2018, 10:09 PM
Replies: 230
Views: 23,768
Posted By ultracapper
The fact there were 2 bets made, first, from 13/1...

The fact there were 2 bets made, first, from 13/1 to 10/1, and then seeing after that bet that the adjustment isn't maximized, from 10/1 to 5/1, indicates that there is just some mathematics driven...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-28-2018, 09:41 PM
Replies: 230
Views: 23,768
Posted By ultracapper
There are only 3 possible scenarios here. 1)...

There are only 3 possible scenarios here.

1) The crowd makes the subject horse 3rd in the DDs and P3s, notices the discrepancy at post time, and corrects it. Likely hood........ damn near 0%

2)...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-28-2018, 09:01 PM
Replies: 230
Views: 23,768
Posted By ultracapper
The "bots" detect the pool discrepancy and suck...

The "bots" detect the pool discrepancy and suck the value right out of it.
Showing results 1 to 18 of 18

 
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